Overall revenue growth to beknocked back materially

E-retail, essentials to fare better

Revenue is projected to decline 2-4% for consumer essentials and 16-30% across discretionary manufacturing and consumer services in fiscal 2021 in the base case scenario. The decline could be steeper for some discretionary segments -- 30-40% -- in case of extended vulnerability.

Ressentials as demand is only marginally impacted, albeit large players are producing only 60-80% of their normal output with almost half tthe factories located in Covid-19 hotspots. Start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with in-house logistics such as iD Fresh food and local snacks manufacturers in rural areas are able to keep pace with the growing demand for essential items.

E-retail will be an exception as e-grocers such as BigBasket and Grofers, online marketplaces such as Amazon and Flipkart have seen a surge in demand and are delivering essential items at the doorstep.

Household appliances, readymade garments and QSR will witness the sharpest decline in revenues - in both base case scenario as well as extended vulnerability - as consumers postpone discretionary purchases.