• Easing of restriction measures are well under way in major advanced economies of the United States (US) and Europe, paving the path for economic recovery
  
• A large degree of uncertainty continues, with the resurgence of infections in a few areas and persistence of social distancing
  
• The energy index has risen owing to the increase in crude prices; metal prices are also rising, indicating renewed global demand
  

Is the global economy finally inching towards recovery? With containment measures easing, there has been a revival in indicators such as industrial production and trade. However, social distancing and the risk-averse behavior of consumers and businesses have slowed the process. Moreover, the resurgence of cases in a few regions has shrouded the recovery in uncertainty.

In its latest economic update, the International Monetary Fund stated the pandemic has had a severe impact on the economy, and recovery is likely to be more gradual than expected. Accordingly, it has lowered its global gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections for 2020 to -4.9%, 1.9 percentage points below its April forecast. Social distancing continuing into the second half of 2020, greater damage to potential output from the larger-than-anticipated hit to activity during the lockdown, stifled productivity and lengthier lockdowns in countries struggling with containing infections are the reasons for its downward revision.