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April 05, 2021

Second shock

Covid-19 and its impact on economic activity in India

Few countries have escaped a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and it is India’s turn now, with daily cases crossing the previous peak of September 2020. And this wave is spreading faster than the first, though with a lower fatality ratio.

 

The past week (March 29-April 4), saw daily cases shoot up from 68,000 to over 1 lakh – a whopping 52% increase. In comparison, cases had risen only 9% in the week India saw similar per day cases (in August) last year.

 

Initially concentrated in Maharashtra, new cases are slowly dispersing to other states, which have seen some dip in mobility towards end-March. So far, though, economic impact remains minimal, with localised restrictions. Maharashtra, the worst impacted state, has introduced somewhat stringent restrictions that will temper mobility and contact-based services.

 

Vaccination has been progressing at a slow speed – only 5.5 doses administered per 100 people in India against the world average of 8.3 doses (Source: Our World in Data). But it is expected to pick up pace in April with inoculation opening up for people aged 45 years and above.