• Russia-Ukraine Conflict
  • Report
  • CRISIL Global Research and Risk Solutions
May 31, 2022

Global Economy: In the slow lane

  • Inflation slows in the United States (US) on a sequential basis
  • The Bank of England (BoE) projects inflation to peak at over 10% by end 2022
  • Brent crude prices ease on-month in April

Take elevated commodity prices that fuel inflation and shock consumption. Add hardening interest rates across advanced and emerging market economies, which will further take a toll on demand, particularly in the US.

Into this already potent cocktail, throw in the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is throttling growth, especially in Europe owing to its geographical proximity and energy dependence. Top it off with China's stringent response to the omicron variant of Covid-19, which is prompting downgrades to its growth forecast.

What you get is a recipe for global slowdown.

Accordingly, the International Monetary Fund projects global growth will slow to 3.6% in 2022 (vs 6.1% growth seen in 2021), revised downwards by 0.8 percentage points from its January outlook (April 2022).