• CRISIL Research Impact Note
  • CRISIL Research
  • Views and Commentaries
  • Export Subsidy
  • Sugar
  • White Sugar Prices
August 25, 2021

Export subsidy unlikely next sugar season

Sharp rise in prices to ensure export viability

Low supply from Brazil gives sugar prices a rush

 

Global white sugar prices started rallying in the beginning of August and had reached a four-and-a-half-year high of $504 per tonne as on 17th of the month, up 28% on-year. Inclement weather is affecting sugar production in Brazil and this, in turn, is expected to impact global supply in the upcoming sugar season (SS 2022; October 2021 to September 2022).

 

Brazil, the largest sugar producer in the world, is expected to produce just 29 million tonne of sugar in SS 2022 as against 41 million tonne in SS 2021.

 

To be sure, prices are projected to rise up to March 2022 as global sugar supplies are expected to be in deficit despite the third wave of Covid-19 gripping Australia, Europe and the US.

 

Prices are forecast to begin moderating from May 2022, provided better weather conditions prevail in Brazil at the start of the new SS from April 2022.