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April 12, 2021

Waves of affliction

Assessing the Covid-19 second shock and its impact on economic activity in India

India’s second Covid-19 wave is spreading faster than the first and in more states. Last week (April 5-11), daily cases consistently breached the 1 lakh level. The surge can be attributed to higher positivity rate as well as increased testing, both of which are at higher levels than seen during the peak of the first wave last year.

 

Concomitantly, the pace of vaccination has also picked up, with inoculation opening up for people aged 45 years and above. India crossed the global average of total vaccinated people per million (those who have received at least one dose of vaccine or are fully inoculated) in the April 5-11 week.

 

Among states, however, the performance is mixed. Some among those hit harder are vaccinating a higher proportion of population, while others seem to be lagging.

 

Meanwhile, the impact of localised restrictions by states is now more visible. Retail mobility and traffic congestion, particularly for Maharashtra, is beginning to evaporate.