Wilting consumption and sluggish private investments underscore the hard economic slowdown underway. For fiscal 2020, we estimate GDP growth to be at an 11-year low of 5%, down a sharp 110 basis points on-year, while nominal growth is expected to be around 7.5%.
The financial sector drag has been looping into the real sector weakness. Corporate India revenue for ex oil and ex bfsi sectors is expected to tank to 3% in FY20 after riding on two good years.
Then there have been exogenous headwinds: slower global growth, falling trade intensity, and uncertainties from trade and geopolitical conflicts, to name a few. And now, the yet-to-be-estimated consequences of the Coronavirus outbreak.
That said, high-frequency macro and micro parameters indicate the worst may be over.
Or do they?
To be sure, monetary and fiscal policies are trying out unconventional solutions, if not direct stimulus. But do they have the heft to bring about an orbit change?
So what comes next?
The 5th India Outlook seminar, hosted by CRISIL, where our experts, and other stakeholders, will present and discuss:
Trends in the global economy
Growth drivers and key risks in fiscal 2021
The consumption story play-out
Continuing pain in the real estate and financial sectors
What will it take to sustain growth beyond next fiscal
