RateView

One-month view

Our May view takes into account several factors that could drive the 10-year benchmark government security (G-sec) yield, including the US Treasury yields, crude oil prices, dollar movement, geopolitical developments, and the risk sentiment of investors. Policy moves by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as well as inflation and liquidity dynamics, are some of the other factors considered.
 

Three-month view

The movement of the 10-year G-sec yield is likely to depend on the RBI’s policy direction, government borrowings, supply of state development loans (SDLs), foreign portfolio investor (FPI) participation, movement of crude oil prices and the rupee, global risk sentiment and the FOMC’s decisions. Uncertainties around global trade and geopolitical developments would also influence the yield.

Framework for the outlook

We provide an outlook on key benchmark rates for multiple debt instruments, including 10-year G-secs, SDLs and corporate bonds, based on statistical models and inputs from our experts. We also incorporate our views on policy expectations, macroeconomic outlook, key local and global events, and market factors such as liquidity and the demand supply dynamics.