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January 15, 2017 location Mumbai

Organised retail’s market share seen rising 300 bps to 10% by 2020

New single-brand retail rules to accelerate penetration

CRISIL expects the market share of organised retail in India to rise to ~10% by fiscal 2020, compared with ~7% last fiscal. This will be supported by the government’s decision to permit 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in single-brand retail under the automatic route from 49% earlier, relaxation in sourcing norms, and healthy growth prospects for organised retail.

Before the change in rules, CRISIL had expected the market share of organised retailers to grow to ~9% by fiscal 2020, based on healthy revenue growth of ~18% of organised brick and mortar (B&M) retailers.


Better operating environment for single-brand retail would also mean the pace of store additions by organised retailers will be faster than the annual 10-12% CRISIL had presaged earlier.


The impact of relaxation in rules would be more pronounced in the apparel, luxury goods, home decor, footwear, and electronics segments, which ratchet up ~45% of India’s organised retail revenues.


“Global single-brand retailers facing growth headwinds in their key geographies will now be more than keen to peg tent in India,” said Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings. “And those already present could step up investments. The previous sourcing norms were a bottleneck to scaling-up of operations.”


While FDI approval under the automatic route will lower the time to commence business, the relaxation of 30% local sourcing norms for the first five years by allowing inclusion of incremental sourcing for global operations will provide sufficient time for new entrants to set up and stabilise their sourcing base.


“All this will mean increase in competition for domestic organised B&M retailers,” said Amit Bhave, Director, CRISIL Ratings. “However, more foreign retailers vending their ware would also lead to sharper focus on, and improvements in, supply chain efficiencies which will benefit the sector over the medium term.”


CRISIL rates 93 organised B&M retailers and their credit quality has been improving as reflected in the credit ratio (upgrades to downgrades) of over 1 time for the past four years.


CRISIL believes healthy growth prospects for the sector and benefits of scale and focus on profitability, will help offset the impact of higher capital spending and increasing competition on credit profiles over the medium term. Hence, improvement in the credit quality of CRISIL rated B&M retailers is likely to sustain.


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    Anuj Sethi
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    Director - CRISIL Ratings
    CRISIL Limited
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