CriSidEx survey for July-September and October-December
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Business sentiment, July-September 2018
The Survey 4 findings need to be viewed in the context of macroeconomic factors such as seasonality due to monsoon and onset of the festive season, rising crude oil prices, rupee depreciation, and the fact that July-September is preceded by a usually buoyant quarter – the first quarter of the fiscal.
Sectors that saw a positive trend
Momentum was positive for both manufacturing and services sectors
Among service providers, 38% reported a good SQ4, indicating significant improvement over the four quarters, from 30% in SQ1
Commercial services & supplies providers, healthcare and travel & hotels segments had the highest share respondents who had a good quarter
Power & utilities providers had a mixed quarter with high share on both sides - good and subdued business situation
Among manufacturers, 37% reported a good SQ4, indicating a consistent run
The share of positive respondents was similar to those in SQ1 and SQ2, though lower than in SQ3
Auto-components, metals & mining, chemicals & pharmaceuticals had a higher share of respondents with a good quarter
Sectors that saw a subdued trend
In services, media-related MSEs, logistics, and human resource service providers had a higher share of respondents reporting a subdued quarter
In manufacturing, food products, gems & jewellery and leather & leather goods had a higher share of respondents reporting a subdued quarter
Business sentiment, October-December 2018
Half of all respondents in both manufacturing and services expect a good next quarter
Compared with NQ3, however, there has been some moderation
Sectors anticipating a positive trend
In manufacturing, respondents from auto components, engineering & capital goods, and metals & mining are the most optimistic
Compared with NQ3, there is a small shift in the share of respondents in some sectors expecting a satisfactory NQ4 rather than a good one
For instance, 54% of the respondents in auto components expect a good and 42% a satisfactory NQ4 compared with 59% and 38%, respectively, in NQ3
In services, respondents from healthcare, power & utilities and travel & hotel segments are the most optimistic
Sectors foreseeing a subdued trend
In manufacturing, gems & jewellery had a higher share of respondents expecting a subdued quarter
In services, human resource had a higher share of respondents expecting a subdued quarter