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November 12, 2018

Momentum positive, but caution prevails

CriSidEx survey for July-September and October-December

Business sentiment, July-September 2018


The Survey 4 findings need to be viewed in the context of macroeconomic factors such as seasonality due to monsoon and onset of the festive season, rising crude oil prices, rupee depreciation, and the fact that July-September is preceded by a usually buoyant quarter – the first quarter of the fiscal.


Sectors that saw a positive trend


  • Momentum was positive for both manufacturing and services sectors
  • Among service providers, 38% reported a good SQ4, indicating significant improvement over the four quarters, from 30% in SQ1
    • Commercial services & supplies providers, healthcare and travel & hotels segments had the highest share respondents who had a good quarter
    • Power & utilities providers had a mixed quarter with high share on both sides - good and subdued business situation
  • Among manufacturers, 37% reported a good SQ4, indicating a consistent run
    • The share of positive respondents was similar to those in SQ1 and SQ2, though lower than in SQ3
    • Auto-components, metals & mining, chemicals & pharmaceuticals had a higher share of respondents with a good quarter

Sectors that saw a subdued trend


  • In services, media-related MSEs, logistics, and human resource service providers had a higher share of respondents reporting a subdued quarter
  • In manufacturing, food products, gems & jewellery and leather & leather goods had a higher share of respondents reporting a subdued quarter


Business sentiment, October-December 2018


  • Half of all respondents in both manufacturing and services expect a good next quarter
  • Compared with NQ3, however, there has been some moderation

Sectors anticipating a positive trend


  • In manufacturing, respondents from auto components, engineering & capital goods, and metals & mining are the most optimistic
    • Compared with NQ3, there is a small shift in the share of respondents in some sectors expecting a satisfactory NQ4 rather than a good one
    • For instance, 54% of the respondents in auto components expect a good and 42% a satisfactory NQ4 compared with 59% and 38%, respectively, in NQ3
  • In services, respondents from healthcare, power & utilities and travel & hotel segments are the most optimistic

Sectors foreseeing a subdued trend


  • In manufacturing, gems & jewellery had a higher share of respondents expecting a subdued quarter
  • In services, human resource had a higher share of respondents expecting a subdued quarter