CriSidEx survey for April-June 2019 and July-September 2019
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Business sentiment in April-June 2019
Survey 7 found that overall sentiment remained weak in Q1FY20.
Manufacturing sentiment index declined on-year owing to
Consumption slowdown stemming from higher ownership cost, axle norms and inventory build-up impacting the auto sector, and thereby auto-components
Election slowdown and low domestic tendering, especially in the capital goods segment
Cautious outlook on textile export demand owing to moderation in global growth
Services sentiment index, too, dipped on-year, though not as sharply as manufacturing. The dip was mainly on account of
Cautious outlook on global economic growth, which is expected to impact IT spends
Slower growth in domestic freight demand, given sluggish consumption
Sectors that saw a positive trend
Among manufacturers, 27% reported a good SQ7, lower than 45% in the same quarter a year ago (S3) and also lower than 42% in the previous quarter (S6). In fact, positive sentiment in SQ7 was the lowest among the past five quarters
In SQ7, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and metal & mininghad the highest share of respondents who reported a goodquarter. In pharmaceuticals, which is an export-linked sector,an improving product pipeline will benefit the profit spreadsof players as currency tailwind abates.
On-year basis (S3 to S7), no sector reported increase in share of respondents with positive sentiment
Among service providers, 28% reported a good SQ7, lower than 44% in the same quarter a year ago (SQ3) and also lower than 39% in the previous quarter (S6). However, here too, positive sentiment in SQ7 was the lowest among the past 5 quarters
In SQ7, commercial services & supplies, human resources, healthcare providers & services and professional services segments had the highest share of respondents who reported a good quarter
On-year basis (S3 to S7), commercial services & supplies, healthcare providers & services and human resources reported increase in share of respondents with positive sentiment