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May 19, 2020

One pandemic Four lockdowns States of disarray

Not all states are in the same boat


  • India has entered the fourth phase of lockdown necessitated by the Covid-19 pandemic
  • Lockdown 1.0 (March 25-April 14) and Lockdown 2.0 (April 15-May 3) were most stringent as ‘non-essential’ activities throughout the country came to a standstill. Lockdown 3.0 (May 4-May 17) allowed some easing with zones classified into red, orange and green as per the virus’ spread. With lockdown 4.0 (from May 18-May 31), India is slated to go through 68 days of lockdown
  • At the all-India level, the virus spread and lockdowns, and restrictions have pummelled economic activity. While all states were near-uniformly hit during the first and second lockdown phases, the third and fourth would impact them differently
  • There were –as per Lockdown 3.0 – eight states in which the share of districts classified under the red zone is higher than the national average*. These states account for ~60% of India’s GDP and ~58% of workforce. Of these,
    • Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Gujarat, being most dependent on output from industry and services, are more vulnerable to output losses as they face restrictions
    • Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are fiscally more vulnerable due to relatively higher debt ratios. These states also have high dependence on revenue sources from petroleum, liquor and stamp duty
    • Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu have higher share of informal workforce, which is vulnerable to job losses

Note: *Classification as per notification by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare dated 30 April 2020. National average is 17.7%