• Demonetisation
  • CRISIL Research First Cut
  • Consumption products
  • GDP Growth
  • Economy Research
  • Inflation
June 01, 2017

Confirming the slowdown

Revised estimates hold fiscal 2017 GDP growth steady at 7.1%, but with a changed mix

The Central Statistical Office (CSO) yesterday came out with the gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for Q4 (Jan-Mar 2017) and full fiscal 2017. This is the first GDP release incorporating the new 2011-12 based WPI and IIP series. 

Contrary to the consensus expectation of a rise in real GDP growth – both on account of higher IIP and lower WPI in the new series – the real GDP growth for fiscal 2017 clocked 7.1%, unchanged from its earlier estimate. That’s due to the impact of demonetization and the fact that the deflator in Q4 had risen sharply. For fiscals 2015 and 2016, GDP growth was notched up as the newly estimated IIP growth and deflator (2011-12 base) were favourable compared with earlier estimates. That said, different components of the GDP in fiscal 2017 did see their growth estimates changing on both the demand and the supply side.