Overall demand to record a growth of 12-14% in fiscal 2019 on back of healthy OEM sales and exports
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Overall domestic auto-component production grew at 7% in fiscal 2017
In fiscal 2017, overall automotive component industry has grown moderately on account of slower growth in replacement market due to demonetization, however healthy offtake from OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer), and revival in exports due to the recovery in global economy had driven the growth.
Overall domestic auto component production to grow at 11-13% in fiscal 2018
In fiscal 2018, we estimate that the OEM offtake has increased at healthy pace of 13-15% on account of expected growth in the two-wheeler due to improving rural sentiment; PV (passenger vehicle) due to increasing affordability, easier access to finance and various new model launches and in CV (commercial vehicle) space due to improvement in freight demand from sectors such as infrastructure.
Exports is estimated to record a growth of 7-9% on account of improvement in global economy such as USA, stable growth in European countries and higher exports to emerging nations such as SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries.
From April 1st, 2017 BS IV was implemented. The transition from BS III to BS IV led to the higher average realisation particularly for the commercial vehicle component manufacturer.
Overall auto component production to grow at 12-14% in fiscal 2019 supported by better growth in the domestic market and a healthy growth in exports
We expect the industry to grow on the back of higher domestic demand across the vehicle segments over a high base of fiscal 2018. Higher demand is expected to be seen from CV segment because of the Government push towards end use segments such as infrastructure, support from Government in the form of MSP (Minimum Support Price) to aid the profitability of the farmers and boost tractor demand.
Exports is expected to register a growth of 8-10% in fiscal 2019 due to improvement in Global scenario. Growth will be seen from countries such as USA and Euro zone. However, issues on global trade by Trump Administration remains a key monitorable. Our other export partners, such as Latin American and countries like Brazil are expected to recover from recession. Crude oil price is expected to move north which signals improvement in Middle east economy.