Dusshera and Diwali haven’t exactly sparkled for automobile makers or original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Typically, this period – September and October/November – contribute a fifth of annual sales.
While sales increased only 1.6% in October, for September and October combined, they de-grew ~2%. Consequently, fiscal-to-date (April-October) growth is just 6%, which is a major worry for OEMs.
The waiting time for popular models has come down to just a couple of weeks, while face-lifts are outnumbering new model launches. Dealer inventory post Diwali stands at ~40 days unlike ~30-35 days in the festival seasons of the past couple of years.
Consequently, we are trimming 200 basis points (bps) from our earlier growth forecast of 9-11% for the passenger vehicles industry to 7-9%.