Every monsoon has a predilection to play, and every year it does so differently.

After a sprightly start this season (June-September 2021), the south-west monsoon went on a hiatus in the important kharif sowing month of July, and again, in the second and third weeks of August.

As on 23 August 2021, all-India rainfall was 9% below long period average (LPA). But in practical terms, is thecurrent weakness a cause for concern, for an economy that’s looking for succour after two waves of a debilitating pandemic?

We find that though reservoir levels are below par, and there is stress in a couple of states and crops, there is no big reason for alarm. With sowing on course, we see agriculture grow 3% on-year this fiscal, over a healthy base of 3.6% growth in fiscal 2021.