Rating Rationale
February 19, 2019 | Mumbai
 
Allahabad Bank
Removed from 'Watch Negative'; Ratings reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Rs.500 Crore Tier II Bonds (Under Basel III)    CRISIL AA-/Negative (Removed from 'Rating Watch with Negative Implications'; Rating Reaffirmed)
Rs.1000 Crore Tier II Bonds (Under Basel III)    CRISIL AA-/Negative (Removed from 'Rating Watch with Negative Implications'; Rating Reaffirmed)
Lower Tier II Bonds (Under Basel II) Aggregating Rs.850 Crore    CRISIL AA-/Negative (Removed from 'Rating Watch with Negative Implications'; Rating Reaffirmed)
Upper Tier II Bonds (Under Basel II) Aggregating Rs.1000 Crore    CRISIL A+/Negative (Removed from 'Rating Watch with Negative Implications'; Rating Reaffirmed)
Tier I Perpetual Bonds (Under Basel II) Aggregating Rs.300 Crore    CRISIL A+/Negative (Removed from 'Rating Watch with Negative Implications'; Rating Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has removed its ratings on the debt instruments of Allahabad Bank from 'Rating watch with negative implications' and reaffirmed the 'CRISIL AA-/CRISIL A+' ratings, assigning a Negative outlook on the debt instruments of the bank.
 
The ratings were put on watch as the bank reported capital adequacy ratios lower than the regulatory requirement (excluding capital conservation buffer) for two consecutive quarters. The bank reported CET I, Tier I, and overall capital adequacy ratios of 4.98%, 5.07%, and 7.07%, respectively, as on September 30, 2018, and 4.79%, 4.88%, and 6.88%, respectively, as on June 30, 2018. CRISIL was awaiting discussions with the management in terms of capital raising plan and the outlook of asset quality and profitability of the bank.
 
The watch resolution follows improvement in the bank's CET I, Tier I, and overall capital adequacy ratios of7.06%, 7.15% and 10.42%, respectively, as on December 31, 2018, after receiving capital of Rs 3,450 crore from the government in November 2018. The bank is also taking corrective actions, such as sale of non-core assets, restricting the expansion of risk-weighted assets, and reducing exposure to unrated and high-risk advances. The bank's risk weighted assets saw a consistent decline and stood at Rs 1.27lakh crore as on December 31, 2018, against Rs1.45lakh crore as on March 31, 2018. Further, as per the management, capital ratios are expected to be maintained above the regulatory requirement in the near term, supported by corrective measures and from expected additional capital infusion from the government, if required.

The negative outlook on the debt instruments of the bank reflects continued pressure on asset quality and its impact on the profitability of the bank. While incremental slippages, especially from the corporate book, have come down, the bank's overall gross non-performing assets (GNPAs)remain elevated at 17.8% (Rs 27,236 crore) as on December 31, 2018, against 16.0% (Rs 26,563 crore) as on March 31, 2018. This has also led to high provisioning expenses impacting the profitability of the bank with the bank reporting a loss of around Rs 4,500 crore return on assets (annualised) of -2.5% for the 9months ended December 31, 2018. Provisions of the bank increased to Rs 6,614 crore for the 9months ended December 31, 2018, against Rs 5,246 crore for the corresponding period in the previous fiscal. CRISIL will continue to monitor the performance of the bank, including its ability to raise further capital from external investors as well as the Government of India (GoI).
 
The ratings continue to reflect expectation of strong support from the majority owner, GoI, and comfortable resource profile. The ratings also factor in stress on asset quality and resultant decline in the earnings profile due to high provisioning requirement.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has factored in the support the bank is expected to receive from GoI. This is because GoI is both the majority shareholder in public sector banks (PSBs) and the guardian of India's financial system. The stability of the banking sector is of prime importance to GoI, given the criticality of the sector to the economy, the strong public perception of government backing for PSBs, and the severe implications of any PSB failure in terms of political fallout, systemic stability, and investor confidence in public sector institutions.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Expectation of strong support from the majority owner, GoI
The rating continues to factor in expectation of strong government support on an ongoing basis and in the event of distress. This is because GoI is both the majority shareholder in public sector banks (PSBs) and the guardian of India's financial system. The stability of the banking sector is of prime importance to GoI, given the criticality of the sector to the economy, strong public perception of sovereign backing for PSBs, and the severe implications of any PSB failure in terms of political fallout, systemic stability, and investor confidence in public sector institutions. CRISIL believes the majority ownership creates a moral obligation on part of GoI to support the PSBs, including Allahabad Bank. GoI has infused a total of Rs 4844 crore in two tranches in Allahabad Bank in fiscal 2019 so far: Rs 1,790 crore in July 2018, and Rs3054 crore in November 2018.
 
* Comfortable resource profile
As a proportion of overall deposits, CASA deposits increased to 47.7% as on December 31, 2018, from 36.28% as on March 31, 2016. Increase in CASA, during this period, is partly attributed to demonetisation, which attracted a large volume of low-cost deposits into the banking system. Resource profile should remain comfortable over the medium term, supported by the bank's well-established market position in central and eastern India, where a stable deposit base has been maintained.
 
Weaknesses
* Weak asset quality
Asset quality remains under stress, with gross NPAs at 17.8% as on December 31, 2018, as against 16.0% as onMarch 31, 2018. Net NPAs reduced to 7.7% as on December 31, 2018, from 8.0% as on March 31, 2018, driven by higher provisions. Asset quality is peaking, and overall incremental slippages are expected to continue to lower. The bank's slippages (annualised) declined to 6.9% for the nine months ended December 31, 2018 (7.9% for fiscal 2018).While most of the stress in corporate book has been recognised, performance of the agriculture and SME book will remain a monitorable. While the bank is focusing on improving its collection and recovery mechanism to improve its asset quality, its ability to control slippages and increase the loan portfolio to less risky segments remains a key monitorable over the medium term.
 
* Weak earnings profile
Earnings have been impacted by deterioration in asset quality. The bank reported a net loss of Rs 4,500 crore in the nine months ended in December 31, 2018, as against a net loss of Rs 1,165 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. This is largely on account of higher provisioning requirement; credit cost increased to 3.6% for the nine months ended December 31, 2018, from 2.9% for the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. Nevertheless, provisioning coverage ratio (excluding technical write-offs) improved to 61.5% as on December 31, 2018, from 54.0% as on March 31, 2018. Pre-provision profits were also impacted in the current fiscal on account of losses in the trading book. The bank reported a return on assets of-2.5% for nine months ended December 31, 2018 as against -0.6% for corresponding period of the previous fiscal. The ability of the bank to improve its asset quality, and hence profitability, is a key monitorable.
Liquidity

The bank has adequate liquidity, supported by a sizeable retail deposit base that forms a significant part of the total deposits. Liquidity coverage ratio was 226.5% as on December 31, 2018, against the regulatory requirement of 90%. The excess statutory liquidity ratio was Rs 14555.4 crore (6.8%) as on that date. The bank's liquidity also benefits from access to systemic sources of funds such as the liquidity adjustment facility from the Reserve Bank of India, access to the call money market, and refinance limits from sources such as National Housing Bank and National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development.

Outlook: Negative

Allahabad Bank should continue to benefit from strong government support. Asset quality and earnings are, however, expected to remain under pressure over the medium term. The outlook may be revised to 'Stable' if there is a substantial and sustained improvement in asset quality and earnings profile. The ratings may be downgraded if there is no material improvement in asset quality or earnings or if capital position weakens significantly over the near term. 

About the Company

Founded in April 1865 by a group of Europeans in Allahabad (Uttar Pradesh), Allahabad Bank is a medium-sized public sector bank with an asset base of Rs 2.4 lakh crore, network of 3,238domestic branches and an overseas branch in Hong Kong as on December 31, 2018.
 
In fiscal 2018, total income (net of interest expenses) was Rs 7,425 crore and net loss was Rs 4,674 crore against total income (net of interest expenses) of Rs 7,931 crore and a net loss of Rs 314 crore in fiscal 2017.
 
Total income (net of interest expenses) was Rs5,387 crore and net loss was Rs 4,500 crore in the nine months ended December 31, 2018, as against total income (net of interest expenses) of Rs6,054 crore and net loss of Rs 1,165 crore for the corresponding period in the previous fiscal.

Key Financial Indicators
As on / for the fiscal ended December 31   2018 2017
Total assets Rs crore 238400 245186
Total income Rs crore 13962 14792
Profit after tax Rs crore -4500 -1165
Gross NPA % 17.8 14.4
Overall capital adequacy ratio % 10.4 11.3
Return on assets % -2.5 -0.6

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Note on Tier-II Instruments (Under Basel III)
The distinguishing feature of Tier-II capital instruments under Basel II is the existence of the point of non-viability (PONV) trigger, the occurrence of which may result in loss of principal to the investors and hence, to default on the instrument by the issuer. According to the Basel III guidelines, the PONV trigger will be determined by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). CRISIL believes the PONV trigger is a remote possibility in the Indian context, given the robust regulatory and supervisory framework, and systemic importance of the banking sector. The inherent risk associated with the PONV feature is adequately factored into the rating on the instrument.

Note on hybrid Instruments (Under Basel II)
Given that hybrid capital instruments (Tier-I perpetual bonds and Upper Tier-II bonds; under Basel II) have characteristics that set them apart from Lower Tier-II bonds (under Basel II), the ratings on the two instruments may not necessarily be identical. The factors that could trigger a default event for hybrid instruments include: the bank breaching the regulatory minimum capital requirement, or the regulator's denial of permission to the bank to make payments of interest and principal if the bank reports losses. Hence, the transition from one rating category to another may be significantly sharper for these instruments than in the case of Lower Tier-II bonds; this is because debt servicing on hybrid instruments is far more sensitive to the bank's overall capital adequacy levels and profitability.

 
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size
(Rs crore)
Outstanding rating
with outlook
INE428A08028 Tier II Bonds (Basel III) - Series I 20-Jan-2015 8.78% 20-Jan-2025 500 CRISIL AA-/Negative
INE428A08044 Tier II Bonds (Basel III) - Series II 21-Dec-2015 8.64% 20-Dec-2025 1000 CRISIL AA-/Negative
INE428A09083 Lower Tier II Bonds (Basel II) - Series VIII 26-Mar-2009 9.23% 26-Mar-2019 400 CRISIL AA-/Negative
INE428A09109 Lower Tier II Bonds (Basel II) - Series IX 4-Aug-2009 8.45% 4-Aug-2019 450 CRISIL AA-/Negative
INE428A09075 Upper Tier II Bonds (Basel II) - Series I 19-Mar-2009 9.28% 19-Mar-2024 500 CRISIL A+/Negative
INE428A09117 Upper Tier II Bonds (Basel II) - Series II 18-Dec-2009 8.58% 18-Dec-2024 500 CRISIL A+/Negative
INE428A09091 Tier I Perpetual Bonds (Basel II) - Series I 30-Mar-2009 9.20% NA 150 CRISIL A+/Negative
INE428A09125 Tier I Perpetual Bonds (Basel II) - Series II 18-Dec-2009 9.08% NA 150 CRISIL A+/Negative
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2019 (History) 2018  2017  2016  Start of 2016
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Lower Tier-II Bonds (under Basel II)  LT  850.00
18-02-19 
CRISIL AA-/Negative      17-08-18  CRISIL AA-/Watch Negative  12-09-17  CRISIL AA-/Negative  04-11-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative  CRISIL AA+/Negative 
            21-05-18  CRISIL AA-/Watch Developing  17-02-17  CRISIL AA-/Negative  10-03-16  CRISIL AA/Negative   
            07-02-18  CRISIL AA-/Stable      16-02-16  CRISIL AA/Negative   
            25-01-18  CRISIL AA-/Stable           
Perpetual Tier-I Bonds (under Basel II)  LT  300.00
18-02-19 
CRISIL A+/Negative      17-08-18  CRISIL A+/Watch Negative  12-09-17  CRISIL A+/Negative  04-11-16  CRISIL A+/Negative  CRISIL AA/Negative 
            21-05-18  CRISIL A+/Watch Developing  17-02-17  CRISIL A+/Negative  10-03-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative   
            07-02-18  CRISIL A+/Stable      16-02-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative   
            25-01-18  CRISIL A+/Stable           
Tier I Bonds (Under Basel III)  LT    --    --    --  17-02-17  Withdrawal  04-11-16  CRISIL A-/Negative  -- 
                    10-03-16  CRISIL A/Negative   
                    16-02-16  CRISIL A/Negative   
Tier II Bonds (Under Basel III)  LT  1500.00
18-02-19 
CRISIL AA-/Negative      17-08-18  CRISIL AA-/Watch Negative  12-09-17  CRISIL AA-/Negative  04-11-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative  CRISIL AA+/Negative 
            21-05-18  CRISIL AA-/Watch Developing  17-02-17  CRISIL AA-/Negative  10-03-16  CRISIL AA/Negative   
            07-02-18  CRISIL AA-/Stable      16-02-16  CRISIL AA/Negative   
            25-01-18  CRISIL AA-/Stable           
Upper Tier-II Bonds (under Basel II)  LT  1000.00
18-02-19 
CRISIL A+/Negative      17-08-18  CRISIL A+/Watch Negative  12-09-17  CRISIL A+/Negative  04-11-16  CRISIL A+/Negative  CRISIL AA/Negative 
            21-05-18  CRISIL A+/Watch Developing  17-02-17  CRISIL A+/Negative  10-03-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative   
            07-02-18  CRISIL A+/Stable      16-02-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative   
            25-01-18  CRISIL A+/Stable           
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Links to related criteria
Rating Criteria for Banks and Financial Institutions
Criteria for Notching up Stand Alone Ratings of Entities Based on Government Support
Rating Criteria for Hybrid Capital instruments issued by banks under Basel II guidelines
Rating criteria for Basel III - compliant non-equity capital instruments

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