Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
- Expectation of strong support from MAFIL
The ratings on Asirvad's debt centrally factor in the company’s strategic importance to, and expectation of financial support from, MAFIL. The microfinance segment is strategically important to the Manappuram group, as it is the largest business after gold loans. Asirvad accounted for around 22% of the overall asset mix of MAFIL on a consolidated basis as on March 31, 2021. As the business is scalable and has been profitable, it shall be a key growth driver for the group over the medium term.
MAFIL holds 94.78% equity in Asirvad and has infused growth capital in the latter and will continue to do so when required. In fiscal 2019, the parent infused equity of Rs 371 crore. In addition, Mr VP Nandakumar (managing director of MAFIL) and two other directors of MAFIL are on the board of Asirvad. MAFIL will continue to hold a majority stake in Asirvad.
- Adequate capital position
Asirvad’s capital position has witnessed substantial improvement owing to capital infusion by the parent. MAFIL infused Rs 371 crore in Asirvad in fiscal 2019. Networth and adjusted gearing stood at Rs 1055 crore and 5.5[1] times, respectively, as on March 31, 2021, against Rs 278 crore and 10.3 times, respectively, as on March 31, 2018. The capital position is supported by healthy internal accrual; in fiscal 2020, Asirvad reported profit of Rs 235 crore against profit of Rs 133 crore in the previous fiscal. However, the net profit dropped to Rs 16.9 in fiscal 2021, because the company incurred a net loss of Rs 5 crore for the first half of fiscal 2021, primarily because of provision of Rs 157 crore, of which Rs 142 crore was against Covid-19. For the full fiscal 2021, the company made a provision of Rs 300 crore (including write-off of Rs 143 crore). Gearing should remain around 7 times on a steady-state basis over the medium term. Given that microfinance is the second largest business of MAFIL, the parent will likely infuse capital at regular intervals to support growth in Asirvad’s operations.
- Above-average earnings historically, albeit moderation on account of higher provisioning to combat the pandemic
After reporting losses of Rs 10 crore in fiscal 2018 due to high provisioning cost, the company reported healthy profit of Rs 133 crore in fiscal 2019 and Rs 235 crore in fiscal 2020. Return on managed assets (RoMA) thus stood at 3.6% in fiscal 2019 and 4.1% in fiscal 2020. However, the company reported net profit of just Rs 16.9 crore in fiscal 2021, primarily due to Rs 300 crore provisioning (including write-off of Rs 143 crore) considering the potential challenges in recovering overdues amid the pandemic. Consequently, the RoMA dropped to 0.3% during fiscal 2021. Along with the growth in portfolio, the company maintained net interest margin (NIMs) of 7.0-9.5% in the past four fiscals. Operating cost has also benefitted from the operating leverage attained with high growth in portfolio. Increase in the AUM per branch and per district, also indicates a ramp-up in portfolio at the same branch cost.
Credit cost rose to 4.4% in fiscal 2021, compared with 2.6% in fiscal 2020, on account of the company's aggressive provisioning policy. Given the aggressive provisioning implemented by the company in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021, profitability is expected to improve in the coming quarters of fiscal 2022. Nevertheless, in the near term, Asirvad’s ability to manage recoveries to pre-pandemic level would be a key rating sensitivity factor.
Weaknesses:
- Concentration in operations, despite steady reduction, in southern India
Despite presence in 22 states through 1,028 branches, the southern states accounted for around 37% of the company’s portfolio as on March 31, 2021. However, this concentration has reduced from 49% as on March 31, 2018, and around 63% as on March 31, 2017. Also, the portfolio is well diversified across districts, with the top five districts accounting for only 7.2% of the portfolio as on March 31, 2021. The company is increasing focus on the eastern and north-eastern states to drive growth and reduce the share of southern states. Amidst fast growth in the portfolio, the ability to diversify geographically and maintain stable systems and processes to avoid any asset quality pressures, remain critical and hence, a key rating sensitivity factor.
- Moderation in the asset quality
Asset quality improved substantially in fiscal 2019, with 90+ dpd reducing to 0.5% as on March 31, 2019, from 2.3% as on March 31, 2018, and 4.4% as on March 31, 2017. The improvement was aided by write-off of around Rs 180 crore in fiscals 2017 and 2018, and the base effect caused by portfolio growth of over 60% in fiscal 2019. However, the company has taken steps to strengthen its internal processes, such as branch grading, based on collection efficiency, end-to-end process notes, zero cash policy at branches and pin code analysis for new branch identification. The company is focused on building a more robust portfolio with customers who have a proven repayment track record. However, in fiscal 2020, asset quality saw some moderation primarily on account of political unrest in Karnataka and floods in several districts, which led to 90+ dpd of 1.8% as on March 31, 2020. This further weakened on account of the pandemic, and the proforma 90+ dpd stood at 2.5% as on March 31, 2021. As the situation regarding the severity and longevity of the Covid-19 impact evolves, sustainability of asset quality in the near-to-medium term will be monitored closely. Besides, with the risk of potential increase in credit losses in the near-to-medium term, profitability will remain closely monitored.
- Potential risks from legislative and regulatory changes in the microfinance sector
The microfinance sector witnessed two major disruptive events in the past decade. The first was the crisis promulgated by the ordinance passed by the government of Andhra Pradesh in 2010, and the second was demonetisation in 2016. Promulgation of the ordinance on MFIs by the government of Andhra Pradesh in 2010 exposed them to regulatory and legislative risks. The ordinance triggered a chain of events that adversely affected the business models of MFIs by impairing their growth, asset quality, profitability and solvency. The sector witnessed high levels of delinquencies post demonetisation and subsequent socio-political events. The MFI Bill, 2020 passed recently by the Assam Assembly may increase asset-quality challenges for MFIs. Further, announcement of any loan waivers may worsen matters, due to their impact on repayment discipline. The sector also remains susceptible to regional issues such as elections, natural calamities and borrower protests among others, which may result in momentary spurt in delinquencies. This indicates the fragility of the business model to external risks. As the business involves lending to the poor and downtrodden sections of society, MFIs will remain exposed to socially sensitive factors, including high interest rates, tighter regulations and legislations.