Rating Rationale
August 28, 2020 | Mumbai
Bajaj Auto Limited
Ratings Reaffirmed; FD Withdrawn 
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.891.75 Crore (Reduced from Rs.3750 Crore) 
Long Term Rating CRISIL AAA/Stable (Reaffirmed)
Short Term Rating CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
 
Fixed Deposits FAAA/Stable (Withdrawn)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has reaffirmed its 'CRISIL AAA/Stable/CRISIL A1+' ratings on bank facilities of Bajaj Auto Limited (Bajaj Auto). CRISIL has also withdrawn its rating on the Rs.2858.25 crore proposed bank guarantee and the 'FAAA/Stable' rating on the fixed deposits at the company's request since there are no fixed deposits outstanding nor does the company intend to accept fixed deposits. The withdrawal is in line with CRISIL's policy.
 
Revenue growth in fiscal 2021 is expected to be negative to flat in fiscal 2021. First quarter of fiscal 2021 witnessed a decline in revenue by -60.3% owing to impact of COVID though expected to recover in remainder of the fiscal 2021 driven by preference for personal mobility and revival of demand in general.
 
Operating profitability is expected to remain in the range of 15-18% during fiscal 2021. As a result, annual cash accrual is likely to be healthy Rs 4000 - 4500 Crs (assuming no dividend payouts) over the medium term. Demand for three-wheeler passenger vehicle is impacted and may take some time to recover which will also impact operating profitability in fiscal 2021.

Credit metrics remained strong; the gearing was 0.01 time as on March 31, 2020. Liquidity continued to be superior, with a cash surplus of over Rs 15,500 crore as on March 31, 2020, and an unutilised bank limit.
 
The ratings continue to reflect Bajaj Auto's strong business risk profile to mitigate risks backed by an established market position in the motorcycle segment, leading position in the three-wheeler passenger carrier segment, diversified risk profile with presence in over 70 countries and robust financial risk profile because of a strong balance sheet with adequate liquidity.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at its ratings, CRISIL has combined the business and financial risk profiles of Bajaj Auto and its subsidiaries, PT Bajaj Auto Indonesia, Bajaj Auto International Holdings BV and Bajaj Auto Thailand Limited because all three companies are under a common management and have high operational linkages.

Please refer Annexure - List of entities consolidated, which captures the list of entities considered and their analytical treatment of consolidation.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
* Healthy market position in the motorcycle segment
In India, Bajaj Auto remains the second-largest player in motorcycle segment with a domestic volume market share of 18.9% for the period April-July 2020. Bajaj continues to be the largest exporter of two-wheelers, accounting for nearly 58% of total exports for the period from Apr-July 2020. During the same period, domestic and exports two-wheeler volumes for the industry declined by 61% and 56% respectively and Bajaj Auto recorded a decline of 57% and 52% respectively. CRISIL expects market share to sustain because of strong positioning of key brands. Moderation in volumes will lead to moderation in operating margins. Cost cutting measures and benign raw material prices will arrest erosion of margins.
 
Over the past few years, the company has demonstrated robust product development capabilities, as reflected in model launches under the KTM and Husqvarna brands in the premium segment, and CT, Platina and Pulsar brands in the economy and executive segment. Performance is expected to remain stable over the medium term, driven by a healthy market position, strong product development capabilities, an established brand, and a diversified product portfolio. The company is also looking to gain crucial edge in the electric two-wheeler market with Bajaj Chetak. Impact of lockdown, consumer preference for mobility and export contribution will remain key monitorables.
 
* Leadership in the three-wheeler passenger carrier segment
The company is the single-largest player in the domestic three-wheeler segment, with a market share of 46%for the period April-July 2020. For the same period, it is also the largest exporter of three-wheelers, with a 68% share. Three-wheeler volumes declined by 73% year-on-year for the April-July 2020 period. Recovery in three-wheeler would be subjected to reopening of institutions such as offices, entertainment options like malls, schools, etc.
 
The company continues to dominate the export market, despite entry of new players such as TVS Motor Company Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (rated 'CRISIL AAA/Stable/CRISIL A1+'), and Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd (rated 'CRISIL A+/Negative/CRISIL A1'). Steady accrual from this segment provides considerable strength to overall business risk profile, helps diversify revenue base, and improves ability to weather intense competition in the motorcycle segment.
 
* Robust financial risk profile
The company is likely to maintain near debt-free status, given that its annual capital expenditure (capex) requirement of Rs.200-400 crores will continue to be met through internal cash accrual of Rs 4000 - 4500 Crs (assuming no dividend payouts) for fiscal 2021. A substantial portfolio of liquid investments and cash surplus (over Rs 15500 crores as on March 2020) provides steady treasury income, besides enhancing financial flexibility. The strong financial risk profile will help withstand any competitive challenge in terms of pricing flexibility, and meet necessary expenditure for in-house research and development, product launches and upgrades, or any sluggishness in revenue growth.
 
Weaknesses:
* Modest presence in the premium or 'sports' segment of the motorcycle market
Premium motorcycle segment (150cc and above) accounts for 21% of the total motorcycle volumes for the period April-July 2020. Bajaj has been the leader in this segment with a market share of 34.6% during the same period. Newer launches in premium segment such as KTM and Husqvarna models are further expected to benefit the Company's position in the segment.
Liquidity Superior

Liquidity is expected to remain superior in the absence of debt; unutilised bank limit; and cash accrual of Rs 4000 - 4500 Crs (without assuming dividend payouts) against capex of Rs.200-400 crore per fiscal should support liquidity over the medium term. Bajaj has healthy cash surplus of over Rs 15500 crore as on March 2020.

Outlook: Stable

CRISIL believes Bajaj Auto will maintain its credit risk profile over the medium term on the back of well-diversified revenue and a robust financial risk profile.

Rating Sensitivity factors
Downward Factors:
* Sustained decline in market share in the motorcycle segment to below 10%, or a sharp fall in the operating profitability margin to below 10%
* Sizeable cash outflow in the form of dividends, share buyback, or large acquisition, severely depleting cash surpluses, or increasing dependence on debt
About the Company

Bajaj Auto was incorporated in 1945 as Bachraj Trading Corporation Ltd to import scooters and motorised three-wheelers from Piaggio & Company. The entity's name was changed to Bajaj Auto Pvt Ltd in June 1960, and then to its current one in August 1960, after it was reconstituted as a public limited company. Currently, Bajaj Auto has a dominant market share in the three-wheeler segment, and a strong position in the motorcycle segment.
 
As per a scheme of demerger, Bajaj Auto formed two companies in fiscal 2008, Bajaj Holdings and Investment Ltd (BHIL) and Bajaj Finserv Ltd (Bajaj Finserv). The two- and three-wheeler manufacturing business carried out by Bajaj Auto was transferred to BHIL, while the wind energy, insurance, and consumer finance businesses were transferred to Bajaj Finserv. After completion of the demerger formalities (Bombay High Court approved the demerger on December 18, 2007), BHIL was renamed Bajaj Auto (new), while Bajaj Auto (old) was renamed BHIL.
 
Bajaj Auto had set up an assembly line capacity in its Waluj plant in Aurangabad, Maharashtra, to manufacture quadricycles (branded as Qute), which it started exporting apart from catering to the domestic market. The company has a total capacity to manufacture 54 lakh units of motorcycles and 9.3 lakh units of commercial vehicles (passenger carrier, goods carrier, and quadricycles) at its plants in Waluj and Chakan in Maharashtra; and Pantnagar in Uttarakhand.
 
For the three months through June 2020, consolidated operating income was Rs 3,079 crore (Rs 7,756 crore for the corresponding period of the previous fiscal) with an operating EBITDA margin of 13.3% (15.4%).

Key Financial Indicators - (CRISIL adjusted)
Particulars for period ended March 31, Unit 2020 2019
Revenue Rs crore 29919 30358
Profit after tax (PAT) Rs crore 5212 4928
PAT margin % 17.4 16.2
Adjusted debt/adjusted networth Times 0.01 0.01
Interest coverage Times 1689 1435

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments and are included (where applicable) in the Annexure -- Details of Instrument in this Rating Rationale. For more details on the CRISIL complexity levels, please visit www.crisil.com/complexity-levels.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size
(Rs crore)
Complexity level Rating assigned
with outlook
NA Bank Guarantee* NA NA NA 781.75 NA CRISIL A1+
NA Cash Credit NA NA NA 90 NA CRISIL AAA/Stable
NA Proposed Bank Guarantee NA NA NA 2858.25 NA Withdrawn
NA Proposed Fund-Based Bank Limits NA NA NA 10 NA CRISIL AAA/Stable
NA Proposed Non Fund based limits NA NA NA 10 NA CRISIL A1+
NA Fixed Deposits NA NA NA 0 Simple Withdrawn
*Interchangeable with letter of credit to the extent of Rs 290 crores
 
Annexure - List of entities consolidated
Company name Holding/Subsidiary/Associate % of shares held
PT. Bajaj Auto Indonesia Subsidiary 99.25%
Bajaj Auto International Holdings BV Subsidiary 100%
Bajaj Auto (Thailand) Ltd Subsidiary 100%
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2020 (History) 2019  2018  2017  Start of 2017
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Fixed Deposits  FD  0.00  Withdrawn     28-11-19  FAAA/Stable  27-12-18  FAAA/Stable  26-12-17  FAAA/Stable  FAAA/Stable 
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  100.00  CRISIL AAA/Stable      28-11-19  CRISIL AAA/Stable  27-12-18  CRISIL AAA/Stable  26-12-17  CRISIL AAA/Stable  CRISIL AAA/Stable 
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  791.75  CRISIL A1+      28-11-19  CRISIL A1+  27-12-18  CRISIL A1+  26-12-17  CRISIL A1+  CRISIL A1+ 
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Bank Guarantee* 781.75 CRISIL A1+ Bank Guarantee* 90 CRISIL A1+
Cash Credit 90 CRISIL AAA/Stable Cash Credit 50 CRISIL AAA/Stable
Proposed Bank Guarantee 2858.25 Withdrawn Letter of Credit 200 CRISIL A1+
Proposed Fund-Based Bank Limits 10 CRISIL AAA/Stable Proposed Bank Guarantee 3410 CRISIL A1+
Proposed Non Fund based limits 10 CRISIL A1+ -- 0 --
Total 3750 -- Total 3750 --
*Interchangeable with letter of credit to the extent of Rs 290 crores
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for the Two-Wheeler Industry
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings
CRISILs Criteria for Consolidation
Understanding CRISILs Ratings and Rating Scales

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