Rating Rationale
June 19, 2018 | Mumbai
Hindalco Industries Limited
Rating outlook revised to 'Positive'; ratings reaffirmed  
 
Rating Action
Rs.1400 Crore Non Convertible Debentures  CRISIL AA/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable'; rating reaffirmed)
Rs.1500 Crore Non Convertible Debentures  CRISIL AA/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable'; rating reaffirmed)
Rs.3000 Crore Non Convertible Debentures  CRISIL AA/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable'; rating reaffirmed) 
Rs.100 Crore Non Convertible Debentures  CRISIL AA/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable'; rating reaffirmed)  
Rs.2400 Crore Short Term Debt (Including Commercial Paper)  CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has revised its outlook on the long term rating of Hindalco Industries Limited (Hindalco) to 'Positive' from 'Stable' while reaffirming the ratings at 'CRISIL AA/CRISIL A1+'.

Revision in outlook reflects CRISIL's expectation that Hindalco's financial risk profile will continue to improve due to a sustained improvement in cash flows driven by healthy profitability across business segments. While profitability in the domestic aluminium business will be supported by increased coal linkages and supportive LME aluminium prices, increasing share of higher margin auto business will support Novelis' profitability. Further, CRISIL expects company's consolidated capital expenditure (capex) to remain moderate at around Rs 4,500 crore per annum supporting strong free cash flow generation and continued deleveraging. Net debt to EBITDA ratio which improved to 2.9 times as on March 31, 2018 from 3.6 times a year ago, is expected to continue to improve over the medium term, deleveraging faster than earlier anticipated. However, the company is actively looking at potential downstream targets overseas and any sustained increase in leverage due to acquisitions will remain a key monitorable.

The ratings continue to reflect the company's well-established market position in the Indian aluminium industry, supported by high operating efficiency, and stable conversion margins in the copper business. The ratings also factor in Novelis's leading global market position in automotive and beverage can sheet, its product and geographical diversity coupled with stable conversion margins. These strengths are partially offset by moderately high, albeit reducing, leverage because of sizeable debt-funded capital expenditure (capex) in the past, and susceptibility of profitability to volatile metal prices and input commodity prices.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has combined the business and financial risk profiles of Hindalco and its subsidiaries, Novelis and Utkal Alumina International Ltd because of strong business and financial linkages among the entities. CRISIL has adjusted the company's profit after tax and net-worth for amortisation of goodwill arising from acquisitions. 

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Well-established market position in the Indian non-ferrous industry: Hindalco is among the leading players in the non-ferrous industry in India. Post commissioning of smelters at Mahan Aluminium and Aditya Aluminium, its total domestic aluminium capacity stands at about 1.3 million tonnes with a market share of close to 40% based on domestic production. Hindalco is also the leading copper producer in India with a production share of close to 50%. Its integrated copper smelting complex at Dahej, Gujarat has a capacity of 500kt. With closure of Vedanta Limited's copper smelter in the current fiscal, Hindalco's share in domestic production will further increase to over 90% during fiscal 2019.

* Healthy operating efficiency of domestic aluminium operations: Hindalco benefits from a fairly low cost of production of its aluminium operations with its smelters having a first/second quartile position in global cost curves. The company benefits from full alumina integration with captive bauxite mines. The company also benefits from relative stability in coal costs with 90% coal security through a combination of linkage from Coal India and captive coal blocks. However, coal costs are higher for Hindalco compared to historical years where it had lower cost captive coal.

* Novelis' product and geographical diversity, with stable conversion margins: Hindalco benefits from Novelis' strong market position as the world's leading producer of automotive and beverage can sheet. Novelis being primarily engaged in converting of primarily aluminium into value-added products, is less susceptible to volatility in London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices. Moreover, investment towards improving its product-mix by increasing share of high-margin automotive segments, in addition to stable 'can body stock' segment has supported improvement in operating efficiencies. Further, focus on increasing recycled aluminium consumption supports its cost structure.

Weaknesses
* Moderately high leverage because of sizeable debt-funded capex: Consolidated net debt to EBITDA is sharply improved to 2.9 times in fiscal 2018, from 3.6 times in FY17, while remaining moderate. Interest cover improved to 3.7 times for FY18 versus 2.1 times for FY17. We expect continued deleveraging over the medium term driven by robust free cash flow generation and modest capex. Continued deleveraging will also support improvement in debt protection metrics. Hindalco's financial flexibility will remain strong, supported by limited debt maturities over the next 2-3 years and its strong refinancing ability. However, any significant debt-funded acquisition will continue to remain a key rating sensitivity factor over the medium term.  

* Susceptibility of domestic aluminium business to volatile metal and input commodity prices: Hindalco's domestic aluminium business remains susceptible to any adverse movement in aluminium prices as witnessed in FY16. Furthermore, the company's margins remain susceptible to an increase in prices of input commodities (coke, pitch etc.) which the company may not able to completely pass on to its customers. While the company has also increased coal linkage security, it remains susceptible to increase in Coal India prices as well as non-fulfilment of linkage and higher dependence on e-auction coal. However, vulnerability to commodity prices is mitigated by majority of consolidated EBITDA being generated from conversion business (Novelis and copper smelting).
Outlook: Positive

CRISIL believes that Hindalco's financial risk profile will continue to improve due to a sustained improvement in cash flows driven by healthy profitability across business segments.   

Upside scenario
* Continued deleveraging driven by considerable and sustained improvement in consolidated cash flows

Downside scenario
* Significantly lower-than-expected cash flow due to higher cost of production or structurally weaker realisations
* Sustained increase in net debt to EBITDA above 3-3.2 times owing to weakening of profitability or on account of large debt-funded  capex/acquisitions.

About the Company

Hindalco, the flagship company of the Aditya Birla group, commenced operations in 1962 with an aluminium unit at Renukoot, Uttar Pradesh. It has become the largest integrated aluminium manufacturer in India, with capacity to produce 1,300 kilo tonne per annum (ktpa) of aluminium and 2,900 ktpa of alumina. The company also has a custom smelter in the copper business.

Novelis, a 100% step-down subsidiary of Hindalco, was acquired in May 2007, for USD 3.45 billion. It supplies aluminium sheets and foils to the automotive and transportation, beverage and food packaging, construction and industrial, and printing industries.

Key Financial Indicators - (Consolidated; CRISIL Adjusted Numbers)
As On/For the Period Ended March 31 Unit 2018 2017
Revenue Rs Cr. 1,15,249 1,00,183
Profit After Tax* Rs Cr. 4,300 47
PAT Margins* % 3.7 0.0
Adjusted Debt/Adjusted Net worth* Times 1.47 2.28
Interest coverage Times 3.7 2.10
*Adjusted for treatment of goodwill, mining rights, and other intangible assets.

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size (Rs crore) Rating assigned with outlook
INE038A07266 Non-convertible debentures 27-Jun-2012 9.55% 27-Jun-2022 1400 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07274 Non-convertible debentures 02-Aug-2012 9.60% 02-Aug-2022 1500 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07258 Non-convertible debentures 25-Apr-2012 9.55% 25-Apr-2022 3000 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07266 Non-convertible debentures 27-Jun-2012 9.55% 27-Jun-2022 100 CRISIL AA/Positive
NA Short Term Debt (Including Commercial Paper) NA NA 7 to 365 Days 2400 CRISIL A1+
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2018 (History) 2017  2016  2015  Start of 2015
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Non Convertible Debentures  LT  6000.00
19-06-18 
CRISIL AA/Positive  03-04-18  CRISIL AA/Stable  22-08-17  CRISIL AA/Stable  05-10-16  CRISIL AA-/Stable  31-07-15  CRISIL AA-/Stable  CRISIL AA/Negative 
            30-06-17  CRISIL AA/Stable  21-01-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative       
Short Term Debt (Including Commercial Paper)  ST  2400.00  CRISIL A1+  03-04-18  CRISIL A1+  22-08-17  CRISIL A1+   21-01-16   CRISIL A1+  31-07-15  CRISIL A1+  CRISIL A1+ 
            30-06-17  CRISIL A1+   05-10-16 CRISIL A1+       
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST    --    --  30-06-17  Withdrawn/ Withdrawn  05-10-16  CRISIL AA-/Stable/ CRISIL A1+  31-07-15  CRISIL AA-/Stable/ CRISIL A1+  CRISIL AA/Negative/ CRISIL A1+ 
                21-01-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative/ CRISIL A1+       
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST    --    --  30-06-17  Withdrawn  05-10-16  CRISIL A1+  31-07-15  CRISIL A1+  CRISIL A1+ 
                21-01-16  CRISIL A1+       
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
 
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for Aluminium Industry
CRISILs Criteria for Consolidation
CRISILs Criteria for rating short term debt

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