Rating Rationale
September 11, 2018 | Mumbai
Hindalco Industries Limited
Ratings Reaffirmed 
 
Rating Action
Rs.1400 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA/Positive (Reaffirmed)
Rs.1500 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA/Positive (Reaffirmed)
Rs.3000 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA/Positive (Reaffirmed)
Rs.100 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA/Positive (Reaffirmed)
Rs.900 Crore Commercial Paper^ (Reduced from Rs.2400 Crore) CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
^Earlier Short Term Debt (Including commercial paper)
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has on repayment, withdrawn its rating on Rs.1500 crore commercial paper of Hindalco Industries Ltd (Hindalco) at the company's request and on receipt of a confirmation from the issuing and payment agent. CRISIL has also reaffirmed its ratings on the other existing instruments at 'CRISIL AA/Positive/CRISIL A1+'.

The rating reaffirmation reflects CRISIL's view that the proposed acquisition of Aleris Corporation (Aleris) by Hindalco's fully owned subsidiary Novelis Inc (Novelis) is largely neutral to Hindalco's credit profile.

CRISIL believes that the acquisition will help consolidate Hindalco's (through Novelis) leading market position globally in aluminium flat rolled products, with addition of 1 million tonne of capacity. Furthermore, the acquisition will, likely, help diversify the product mix moderately by providing exposure to the higher-margin aerospace, building, and construction segments, and strengthen the leadership position in the automotive segment. Ramp-up in auto-grade volumes from the 200 kilo tonne (kt) Lewisport facility - which also benefits from significant take-or-pay contracts - is expected to drive the growth in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) growth and margin expansion for Aleris. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise to USD 360 million (around Rs 2,410 crore) in fiscal 2021 from USD 201 million (around Rs 1,350 crore) in calendar year 2017. Furthermore, overall profitability is likely to be supported by synergy benefits. The acquisition would also marginally increase the proportion of EBITDA from the stable conversion business, largely insulated from volatility in London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices.

The acquisition will, however, temporarily increase leverage for Hindalco and delay the company's deleveraging. Hindalco's consolidated leverage should continue to improve in fiscal 2019 (excluding the impact of the acquisition), supported by healthy cash flows across business segments. Net leverage may temporarily increase in the year of acquisition, but is expected to sustain below 3 times within one year of closure of the acquisition. Consolidated interest coverage should remain healthy at 3.8-4.2 times over the next 2-3 years.

Hindalco on July 26, 2018, announced that Novelis has signed a definitive agreement to acquire the entire stake in Aleris. The deal entails a cash consideration of USD 775 m (around Rs 5,060 crore), while assuming Aleris' debt (around USD 1.8 billion, or Rs 12,060 crore). The deal is expected to be completed over the next 9-15 months.

CRISIL had on June 19, 2018, revised its outlook on the long-term ratings of Hindalco to 'Positive' from 'Stable'. The revision in outlook reflected CRISIL's expectation that Hindalco's financial risk profile would continue to improve due to sustained improvement in cash flows, driven by healthy profitability across segments. While profitability in the domestic aluminium business will be supported by increased coal linkages and supportive LME aluminium prices, increasing share of higher margin auto business will support Novelis' profitability. Furthermore, consolidated capital expenditure (capex) is likely to remain moderate at around Rs 4,500 crore per annum, supporting strong cash flow generation and continued deleveraging. CRISIL had highlighted that the company is actively looking at potential downstream targets overseas, and any sustained increase in leverage due to acquisitions will continue to be monitored.

The ratings continue to reflect the company's well-established market position in the Indian aluminium industry, supported by high operating efficiency, and stable conversion margin in the copper business. The ratings also factor in Novelis' leading global market position in the automotive and beverage can sheet segment, its product and geographic diversity, and stable conversion margin. These strengths are partially offset by moderately high, albeit reducing, leverage, and susceptibility to volatile metal and input commodity prices.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has combined the business and financial risk profiles of Hindalco and its subsidiaries - Novelis and Utkal Alumina International Ltd - because of strong business and financial linkages. The company's profit after tax and networth have been adjusted for amortisation of goodwill arising from acquisitions. 

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Well-established market position in the Indian non-ferrous industry: Hindalco is among the leading players in the domestic non-ferrous industry. Post the commissioning of smelters at Mahan Aluminium and Aditya Aluminium, total domestic aluminium capacity is now at about 1.3 million tonne, with close to 40% market share, based on domestic production. Hindalco is also the leading copper producer in India. Its integrated copper smelting complex in Dahej, Gujarat, has a capacity of 500 kt.

* Healthy operating efficiency of domestic aluminium operations: Hindalco benefits from a fairly low cost of production for the aluminium operations, with its smelters occupying a first/second quartile position in global cost curves. The company also benefits from full alumina integration with captive bauxite mines. The company also benefits from relative stability in coal costs with 90% coal security through a combination of linkage from Coal India and captive coal blocks. However, coal costs are higher for Hindalco compared to historical years where it had lower cost captive coal.

* Novelis' product and geographic diversity, with stable conversion margins: Hindalco benefits from Novelis' strong market position as the world's leading producer of automotive and beverage can sheets. Since Novelis primarily converts aluminium into value-added products, it is less susceptible to volatility in LME aluminium prices. Moreover, investment towards enhancing the product mix by increasing the share of high-margin automotive segments, and the stable can-body-stock segment have supported improvement in operating margin. Focus on increasing recycled aluminium consumption supports the cost structure. 

Weaknesses:
* Moderately high, albeit improving, leverage: Consolidated net debt to EBITDA improved to 2.9 times in fiscal 2018 from 3.6 times the previous year, but remained moderately high. Interest coverage improved to 3.7 times in fiscal 2018 from 2.1 times in fiscal 2017. Deleveraging is expected to continue over fiscal 2019, driven by robust free cash flow generation and moderate capex. Continued deleveraging should support improvement in debt protection metrics. However, successful completion of the Aleris acquisition will increase the leverage temporarily. Hindalco's financial flexibility will remain strong, supported by limited debt maturities over the next 2-3 years and its strong refinancing ability. 

* Susceptibility of domestic aluminium business to volatile metal and input commodity prices: The domestic aluminium business remains susceptible to any adverse movement in aluminium prices as witnessed in FY16. Furthermore, the company's margins remain susceptible to an increase in prices of input commodities (such as coke and pitch) persists; the company may not be able to completely pass on the increase to the customers. While coal linkage security has been increased, it remains susceptible to rise in Coal India prices, non-fulfilment of linkage, and higher dependence on e-auction coal. However, vulnerability to commodity prices is mitigated by generation of the bulk of consolidated EBITDA from the conversion business (Novelis and copper smelting).
Outlook: Positive

CRISIL believes Hindalco benefit from stable profitability at both its domestic operations and at Novelis, along with an improvement in the profitability and margins at Aleris. Hindalco's leverage should continue to improve during FY19 (excluding impact of Aleris acquisition) supported by healthy cash flows across business segments. With acquisition of Aleris, while net leverage may temporarily deteriorate in the year of acquisition, net leverage should sustain below 3times within one year of closure of the acquisition.    

Upside scenarios:
* Solid profitability at both domestic operations and at Novelis coupled with expected ramp-up in EBITDA generation at Aleris, and
* Robust free cash flow generation, leading to continued deleveraging in FY19

Downside scenario:
* Significantly lower-than-expected cash flow due to higher cost of production or structurally weaker realisations
* Sustained increase in net debt to EBITDA above 3-3.2 times owing to weakening of profitability or on account of large debt-funded  capex/acquisitions.

About the Company

Hindalco, the flagship company of the Aditya Birla group, commenced operations in 1962 with an aluminium unit at Renukoot, Uttar Pradesh. It has become the largest integrated aluminium manufacturer in India, with capacity to produce 1,300 kilo tonne per annum (ktpa) of aluminium and 2,900 ktpa of alumina. The company also has a custom smelter in the copper business.

Novelis, a 100% step-down subsidiary of Hindalco, was acquired in May 2007, for USD 3.45 billion. It supplies aluminium sheets and foils to the automotive and transportation, beverage and food packaging, construction and industrial, and printing industries.

Aleris, is a global supplier of aluminium rolled products which operates in 3 regions ' North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. It caters to automotive, aerospace, building and construction, and transportation segments.

Key Financial Indicators - (Consolidated; CRISIL Adjusted Numbers)
As On/For the Period Ended March 31 Unit 2018 2017
Revenue Rs Cr. 1,15,249 1,00,183
Profit After Tax* (PAT) Rs Cr. 4,300 47
PAT Margins* % 3.7 0.0
Adjusted Debt/Adjusted Networth* Times 1.47 2.28
Interest coverage Times 3.7 2.10
*Adjusted for treatment of goodwill, mining rights, and other intangible assets. 

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size (Rs.Crore) Rating assigned with outlook
INE038A07266 Non-convertible debentures 27-Jun-2012 9.55% 27-Jun-2022 1400 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07274 Non-convertible debentures 02-Aug-2012 9.60% 02-Aug-2022 1500 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07258 Non-convertible debentures 25-Apr-2012 9.55% 25-Apr-2022 3000 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07266 Non-convertible debentures 27-Jun-2012 9.55% 27-Jun-2022 100 CRISIL AA/Positive
NA Commercial Paper^ NA NA 7 to 365 Days 900 CRISIL A1+
^Earlier Short Term Debt (Including commercial paper)
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2018 (History) 2017  2016  2015  Start of 2015
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Commercial Paper  ST  900.00  CRISIL A1+    --    --    --    --  -- 
Non Convertible Debentures  LT  6000.00
11-09-18 
CRISIL AA/Positive  06-08-18  CRISIL AA/Positive  22-08-17  CRISIL AA/Stable  05-10-16  CRISIL AA-/Stable  31-07-15  CRISIL AA-/Stable  CRISIL AA/Negative 
        19-06-18  CRISIL AA/Positive  30-06-17  CRISIL AA/Stable  21-01-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative       
        03-04-18  CRISIL AA/Stable               
Short Term Debt  ST              21-01-16  CRISIL A1+  31-07-15  CRISIL A1+  CRISIL A1+ 
Short Term Debt (Including Commercial Paper)  ST      06-08-18  CRISIL A1+  22-08-17  CRISIL A1+  05-10-16  CRISIL A1+    --  -- 
        19-06-18  CRISIL A1+  30-06-17  CRISIL A1+           
        03-04-18  CRISIL A1+               
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST    --    --  30-06-17  Withdrawn/ Withdrawn  05-10-16  CRISIL AA-/Stable/ CRISIL A1+  31-07-15  CRISIL AA-/Stable/ CRISIL A1+  CRISIL AA/Negative/ CRISIL A1+ 
                21-01-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative/ CRISIL A1+       
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST    --    --  30-06-17  Withdrawn  05-10-16  CRISIL A1+  31-07-15  CRISIL A1+  CRISIL A1+ 
                21-01-16  CRISIL A1+       
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for Aluminium Industry
CRISILs Criteria for Consolidation
CRISILs Criteria for rating short term debt

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