Rating Rationale
September 30, 2019 | Mumbai
Hindalco Industries Limited
Ratings Reaffirmed 
 
Rating Action
Rs.1400 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA/Positive (Reaffirmed)
Rs.1500 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA/Positive (Reaffirmed)
Rs.3000 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA/Positive (Reaffirmed)
Rs.100 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA/Positive (Reaffirmed)
Rs.900 Crore Commercial Paper CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has reaffirmed its ratings on the debt instruments of Hindalco Industries Limited (Hindalco) at 'CRISIL AA/Positive/CRISIL A1+'.
 
The ratings reflect strong resilience in business risk profile, driven by robust profitability at Hindalco's subsidiary, Novelis, and cost-efficient domestic operations. While weak London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices may moderate domestic profitability, the conversion nature of the company's large downstream operations at Novelis (contributed 56% to consolidated EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation] in fiscal 2019) lends stability to Hindalco's consolidated profitability. With moderately increased capital expenditure (capex) towards domestic expansion of Utkal Alumina International Ltd (Utkal), coupled with capacity expansion at Novelis, Hindalco's net financial leverage may rise but will remain adequate for the rating category. The 'Positive' outlook is based on expectation of further strengthening of business risk profile through value-accretive expansions in alumina capacity, and in downstream businesses. This, along with sustained financial leverage below 2.5 times over the medium term, may result in a rating upgrade.
 
In fiscal 2019, Hindalco reported a strong EBITDA of Rs 15,053 crore, driven by robust performance at both its domestic operations and at Novelis. Operating profitability at Novelis increased 6% to $1.25 billion, underpinned by steady volume growth and improving EBITDA per tonne due to higher exposure to automotive shipments. Domestic business reported an increase of 5% in EBITDA due to stable operations, better realisations, and supporting macro. Also, Hindalco prepaid project rupee term loans of Rs 1,575 crore related to Aditya smelter in October 2018. Net leverage reduced sharply to 2.6 times as on March 31, 2019 (in line with expectations), down from 2.9 times as on March 31, 2018.
 
Outlook for domestic operations has, however, weakened for fiscal 2020 due to lower LME aluminium prices, with year-to-date average price of $1,780 per tonne versus $2,035 per tonne in fiscal 2019. This was because of weaker sentiment on concerns over trade tensions, although supply-demand fundamentals remain favourable for aluminium with low inventories, which should support a recovery over the medium term. However, Novelis will generate steady EBITDA, backed by increased volumes and improving product mix.
 
On July 26, 2018, Hindalco announced that Novelis has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Aleris Corporation (Aleris) at a cash consideration of USD775 million, while assuming Aleris' debt (around USD1.8 billion). The successful closure of the deal will depend on the outcomes of the issues raised covering antitrust by the US & European regulators. 
 
CRISIL believes the acquisition, if approved, will help further consolidate Hindalco's (through Novelis) leading market position globally in aluminium flat-rolled products, with addition of 1 million tonne of capacity. Furthermore, the acquisition will likely help diversify the product mix moderately by providing exposure to the higher-margin aerospace, building, and construction segments; and strengthen leadership position in the automotive segment. Aleris should also witness a ramp-up in profitability due to growth in auto-grade volumes from the 200 kilo tonne (kt) Lewisport facility, which also benefits from significant take-or-pay contracts. Given the $2.6 billion consideration for Aleris, net leverage may increase to about 2.8 times for fiscal 2021 before correcting lower.
 
The ratings continue to reflect Hindalco's established market position in the Indian aluminium industry, supported by high operating efficiency; stable conversion margin in the copper business; Novelis' leading global market position in the automotive and beverage can sheet segment, its product and geographic diversity, and stable conversion margin. These strengths are partially offset by moderately high, albeit reducing, leverage, and susceptibility to volatile metal and input commodity prices.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has combined the business and financial risk profiles of Hindalco and all its subsidiaries, including Novelis and Utkal, because of strong business and financial linkages.The company's profit after tax and networth have been adjusted for amortisation of goodwill arising from acquisitions.

Please refer Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated, which captures the list of entities considered and their analytical treatment of consolidation.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
* Well - established market position in the Indian non-ferrous industry: Hindalco is among the leading players in the domestic non-ferrous industry: total domestic aluminium capacity is now at about 1.3 million tonne, with close to 40% market share, based on domestic production. The company is also the leading copper producer in India. Its integrated copper smelting complex (capacity of 500 kt) in Dahej, Gujarat, is one of the largest single-location custom copper smelters in the world. During fiscal 2019, Hindalco reported exports of around 30% (by value) in its domestic business. The company will continue to maintain its leading market position in the domestic aluminium industry.

* Healthy operating efficiency of domestic aluminium operations: Hindalco benefits from a fairly low cost of production for the aluminium operations, with its smelters occupying a first/second quartile position in global cost curves. The company also benefits from full alumina integration with captive bauxite mines, and relative stability in coal costs with about 90% coal security through a combination of linkage from Coal India Ltd and captive coal blocks (Hindalco won back the Krishnashila coal linkage of 3.1 million tonne per annum in the auction in September 2018). However, coal costs are higher for Hindalco compared to historical years. The company is undertaking brownfield capacity expansion of Utkal by 500 kt (expected to be completed in fiscal 2021) as well as downstream capacity expansion, which should further improve profitability.

* Product and geographical diversity of Novelis, with stable conversion margin: Novelis is the world's leading producer of automotive and beverage can sheets. Since it primarily converts aluminium into value-added products, it is less susceptible to volatility in LME aluminium prices. Moreover, investment towards enhancing product mix by increasing the share of high-margin automotive segments, and the stable can-body-stock segment have supported growth in operating margin. Focus on increasing recycled aluminium consumption also supports cost structure (share of recycled content was 61% in fiscal 2019 against 57% in fiscal 2018). Adjusted EBITDA per tonne for Novelis steadily increased to $418 per tonne in fiscal 2019 from $308 per tonne in fiscal 2016. 

Weaknesses:
* Moderately high, albeit improving, leverage: Consolidated net debt to EBITDA sharply improved to 2.6 times in fiscal 2019 from 2.9 times in fiscal 2018, but remained moderately high for its rating category. Interest coverage ratio improved to 4.4 times in fiscal 2019 from 2.1 times in fiscal 2017. Deleveraging is expected to be impacted in fiscal 2020 due to increased capex along with moderation in domestic aluminium EBITDA. However, the same is expected to improve to less than 2.2 times for fiscal 2021, backed by reduced capex and expected recovery in aluminium LME. Hindalco's financial flexibility will remain strong, supported by limited debt maturities over the next 2-3 fiscals and strong refinancing ability.

* Susceptibility of the domestic aluminium business to volatile metal and input commodity prices: The domestic aluminium business remains exposed to any adverse movement in aluminium prices, as witnessed in fiscal 2016. Furthermore, operating margins remain susceptible to increase in the prices of input commodities (such as coke and pitch), which the company may not be able to completely pass on to customers. While coal linkage security has been increased, it remains susceptible to rise in Coal India Ltd prices, non-fulfilment of linkage, and increased dependence on e-auction coal. However, vulnerability to commodity prices is mitigated by the conversion nature of both Novelis and copper business, which contribute close to 65% of consolidated EBITDA.

Liquidity: Strong
Liquidity is marked by strong accruals expectation of more than Rs 5,000 crore against negligible repayment obligations over the next few years. Liquid investments were more than Rs 13,500 crore (combined for standalone India business and Novelis) as on March 31, 2019. Additionally, Novelis has more than USD850 million under an asset-backed revolving credit line.
Outlook: Positive

CRISIL believes Hindalco will continue to benefit from healthy profitability at both its domestic operations and at Novelis. Business risk profile could strengthen due to expansion of Utkal and downstream capacities, while leverage may improve on the back of better-than-expected profitability.

Rating sensitivity factors
Upward Factor:
* Strong profitability at both domestic operations and at Novelis
* Robust free cash flow generation leading to continued deleveraging, with expectation of net debt to EBITDA below 2.5 times over the medium term

Downward Factor:
* Significantly lower-than-expected cash flow due to higher cost of production or structurally weaker realisations
* Sustained increase in net debt to EBITDA to above 3-3.2 times owing to weakening of profitability or large, debt-funded capex/acquisitions.

About the Company

Hindalco, the flagship company of the Aditya Birla group, commenced operations in 1962 with an aluminium unit in Renukoot, Uttar Pradesh. It is the second-largest aluminium manufacturer in India, with capacity to produce 1,300 kilo tonne per annum (ktpa) of aluminium and 2,900 ktpa of alumina. The company also has a custom smelter in the copper business.
 
Novelis, a 100% stepdown subsidiary of Hindalco, was acquired in May 2007 for USD3.45 billion. It supplies aluminium sheets and foils to the automotive and transportation, beverage and food packaging, construction and industrial, and printing industries.

Key Financial Indicators - Consolidated; CRISIL-adjusted numbers
As on/for the period ended March 31 Unit 2019 2018
Operating income Rs Cr. 1,28,514 1,15,249
Profit after tax* Rs Cr. 3,712 4,300
PAT margins* % 2.9 3.7
Adjusted debt/adjusted networth* Times 1.41 1.47
Interest coverage Times 4.1 3.7
*Adjusted for treatment of goodwill, mining rights, and other intangible assets

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size (Rs.Cr) Rating assigned with outlook
INE038A07266 Non-convertible debentures 27-Jun-2012 9.55% 27-Jun-2022 1400 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07274 Non-convertible debentures 02-Aug-2012 9.60% 02-Aug-2022 1500 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07258 Non-convertible debentures 25-Apr-2012 9.55% 25-Apr-2022 3000 CRISIL AA/Positive
INE038A07266 Non-convertible debentures 27-Jun-2012 9.55% 27-Jun-2022 100 CRISIL AA/Positive
NA Commercial Paper NA NA 7 to 365 Days 900 CRISIL A1+
 
Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated
Name of the company Type of consolidation Rationale
Novelis Inc. (Consolidated) Full consolidation Subsidiary
Utkal Alumina International Ltd. Full consolidation Subsidiary
Minerals & Minerals Limited Full consolidation Subsidiary
Suvas Holdings Limited Full consolidation Subsidiary
Renuka Investments & Finance Limited Full consolidation Subsidiary
Dahej Harbour & Infrastructure Limited Full consolidation Subsidiary
Lucknow Finance Company Limited Full consolidation Subsidiary
Hindalco-Almex Aerospace Limited Full consolidation Subsidiary
East Coast Bauxite Mining Company Private Ltd Full consolidation Subsidiary
AV Minerals (Netherlands) N.V. Full consolidation Subsidiary
AV Metals Inc. Full consolidation Subsidiary
Hindalco Do Brasil Industria Comercia De Alumina Ltda Full consolidation Subsidiary
Aditya Birla Renewable Subsidiary Limited Moderate consolidation Associate
Aditya Birla Science and Technology Company Private Limited Moderate consolidation Associate
Hindalco Jan Seva Trust Full consolidation Trust
Copper Jan Seva Trust Full consolidation Trust
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2019 (History) 2018  2017  2016  Start of 2016
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Commercial Paper  ST  900.00  CRISIL A1+      11-09-18  CRISIL A1+    --    --  -- 
Non Convertible Debentures  LT  6000.00
30-09-19 
CRISIL AA/Positive      11-09-18  CRISIL AA/Positive  22-08-17  CRISIL AA/Stable  05-10-16  CRISIL AA-/Stable  CRISIL AA-/Stable 
            06-08-18  CRISIL AA/Positive  30-06-17  CRISIL AA/Stable  21-01-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative   
            19-06-18  CRISIL AA/Positive           
            03-04-18  CRISIL AA/Stable           
Short Term Debt  ST                  21-01-16  CRISIL A1+  CRISIL A1+ 
Short Term Debt (Including Commercial Paper)  ST          06-08-18  CRISIL A1+  22-08-17  CRISIL A1+  05-10-16  CRISIL A1+  -- 
            19-06-18  CRISIL A1+  30-06-17  CRISIL A1+       
            03-04-18  CRISIL A1+           
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST    --    --    --  30-06-17  Withdrawal/ Withdrawal  05-10-16  CRISIL AA-/Stable/ CRISIL A1+  CRISIL AA-/Stable/ CRISIL A1+ 
                    21-01-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative/ CRISIL A1+   
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST    --    --    --  30-06-17  Withdrawal  05-10-16  CRISIL A1+  CRISIL A1+ 
                    21-01-16  CRISIL A1+   
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for Aluminium Industry
CRISILs Criteria for Consolidation
CRISILs Criteria for rating short term debt

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