Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
- Strategic importance to, and expectation of strong support from, the parent, Home Credit Group BV:
Given its large population and limited credit penetration by organised players in the retail consumer finance business, India is a strategically important country for the Home Credit Group. Home Credit India, therefore, is likely to receive strong financial, managerial, and operational support from the parent, Home Credit Group. Home Credit Group has infused equity capital of close to Rs 3,163 crore in Home Credit India between fiscal 2017 and 2021. During fiscal 2021, Home Credit group has infused equity of around Rs 624 crore, thereby providing support to capitalisation profile. The Group also provides debt funding support to the company. This indicates the parent’s strong commitment to provide funding and capital support to the subsidiary. CRISIL believes Home Credit India will continue to receive capital support from the parent on an ongoing basis and in the event of distress.
Managerial support is reflected in the deployment of senior management personnel from the Home Credit group, and involvement of senior management personnel from Home Credit Group, in the operations of Home Credit India. Operational support is reflected in technical and functional inputs from Home Credit Group. The risk management tools used by Home Credit India are developed centrally by the Home Credit Group and are customised for India. The functional team of Home Credit India receives regular guidance from the corresponding teams across Asia and Europe. Home Credit India will continue to receive financial, managerial, and operational support from Home Credit Group. Any change in the credit risk profile of Home Credit Group and in the extent of its support to the Indian subsidiary remain key rating sensitivity factors.
- Moderate credit profile of parent, Home Credit Group BV:
Home Credit Group BV’s credit risk profile is driven by that of two of its largest subsidiaries, Home Credit China and Home Credit Russia while at the same time, Home Credit Group BV’s operations in South and South East Asia region continue its strong growth and keep increasing this region’s importance in Home Credit Group’s performance.
Home Credit’s China operations contribute to 54.55% of the total group’s operating revenue in 2020 down from 59.47% in 2019. Further the share of China in group’s total gross loans has decreased from 55.10% in 2020 from 59.65% in 2019. The gross loans of Home Credit China’s operations as on December 31, 2020 were Euro 8,005 million and the net loans were Euro 6,698 million indicating overall ECL provisioning of Euro 1,305 million, equivalent to 16.3% of the gross loans in 2020. The gross and net loans in 2019 were Euro 12,992 million and Euro 11,955 million respectively with ECL provisions at 8% of gross loans. Additionally, CRISIL Ratings believes that there would be significant write-off in the loans in Home Credit China, information for which is not available in the public domain. CRISIL Ratings also observed that the cost of risk ratio was at 15.9% of average gross loans for Home Credit China in 2020. Since cost of risk refers to impairment loss based on gross loans, CRISIL Ratings estimates it to be at Euro 1,670 million. The consolidated total impairment loss was Euro 2,351 million as per the financials of Home Credit Group B.V. for 2020. Hence, bulk of impairment is stemming from Home Credit China operations. CRISIL ratings understands that in addition to the Covid-19 related disruption, the implementation of lending related curbs on the unlicensed lending market in China had impacted the business of Home Credit China, though it is one of the first non-banking entity to receive license in China. CRISIL Ratings observed that Home Credit China had in the past withstood such headwinds and realigned itself to become profitable within a 1-2 quarters. However, the incremental impact of the above on the business and financial risk profile of China operations remains a key monitorable.
Home Credit Russia continues to maintain its steady performance and has been playing a key role in supporting Home Credit group’s profitability. Home Credit and Finance Bank (including Kazakhstan operations) reported a net profit of Ruble 8.8 billion for 2020 as against Ruble 15.8 billion during 2019. The gross loans for Home Credit Russia’s operations have decreased by 18% in local currency (Ruble) to Ruble 225.1 billion in 2020 from Ruble 273.3 billion in 2019 and the impairment loss for 2020 have increased marginally by 3.7% in 2020 to Ruble 11.2 billion.
On a consolidated basis, Home Credit Group had reported a loss Euro 584 million in 2020 against Profit of euro 400 million in 2019. The loss for the group were primarily from the first half of 2020 wherein the Group reported loss of Euro 619 million. The profitability of the group was primarily impacted by aggressive impairment loss of Euro 2,351 million in 2020 against 1,823 million Euros in 2019. As on December 31, 2020, of the overall retail loan portfolio of Home Credit Group (99.4% of total portfolio), about 12.6% was recognised as portfolio under moratorium based on moratoria set in individual countries and 0.2% of the portfolio was identified as Covid-impacted portfolio wherein the performing contracts over a prescribed time moved to 30+dpd post Covid. The remaining 87.2% was classified as non-Covid portfolio and would continue to be monitored. In 2020, the stage-2 assets of Home Credit Group increased by 48.6% to 3.1 billion Euro from 2.1 billion Euro as on December 31, 2019. Against the same the provisioning coverage was 34.8% as on December 31, 2020. The provisioning coverage for stage-3 assets was 44.2% as on December 31, 2020. The cost of risk for 2020 was 12.9% against 8.5% in 2019. The incremental impact on the profitability of the group because of the stage-2 assets and additional impact if any from the global scenario of Covid-19 remains a key monitorable and rating sensitivity factor.
However, CRISIL Ratings understands Home Credit Group is strategically important to PPF Group, one of the largest investment groups in Central and Eastern Europe accounting for around 47% of the latter’s total assets and would support Home Credit Group in case of any stress. Shareholders of PPF Group publicly acknowledge the strategic importance of Home Credit Group and share the key performance highlights of this company and its subsidiaries with bankers during their annual bankers’ meet. Home Credit Group receives funding support from PPF Group in the form of equity capital and unsecured loans and will continue to do so. The ability of PPF Group is expected to be adequate in case of any stress in the group given the high amount of liquid assets of 6,388 million Euro (~ Rs 51,000 crore) as on December 31, 2020.
Home Credit India is adequately capitalised. Despite the substantial loss, the networth of the company stood at Rs 1,853 crores as on June 30, 2021 as against Rs 2,494 crores as on March 31, 2020, supported largely by the Rs 624 crore infusion done in fiscal 2021. Consequently, the networth coverage for net non-performing assets (NPAs) remained comfortable, as the company maintains a high provisioning level. Further, the parent through various entities has been providing debt funding on regular basis and Group debt funding stood at Rs 2,791 crore as on June 30, 2021. Adjusted for this group debt, the gearing based on external indebtedness (after excluding borrowings guaranteed by Home Credit Group) stood at just 0.2 times (not adjusted to deferred tax assets) as on June 30, 2021. However, the incremental impact on the capital profile from the provisioning expense and therefore on the gearing levels remains a key monitorable.
- Moderate resource profile:
Home Credit India benefits from funding support from Home Credit group. Most of its bank facilities are backed by corporate guarantee from Home Credit Group BV. The company has availed most of its debt from foreign banks. To diversify its resource profile, Home Credit India has raised funds through non-convertible debentures, ECBs and securitisation on a regular basis. The company has availed debt from domestic banks, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), Mutual Funds and Financial Institutions (FI’s). CRISIL believes Home Credit group will continue to support the resource profile of the Indian subsidiary if needed to help raise debt to fund growth. The resource profile is primarily supported by borrowings from the parent group of 66% as on June 30, 2021 (in the form of ECBs), working capital loans from banks at 21%, term loans from bank and financial institutions at 10%, NCDs from domestic institutions at 1% and securitisation another 3% of total borrowings. Further, of the overall borrowings, the debt guaranteed by Home Credit Group was about 27% as on June 30, 2021. Home Credit India is in process of diversifying resources from domestic sources and has raised majority of funds through securitisation route in fiscal 2021. Excluding securitisation of Rs 452 crore, the company has raised Rs 390 crore in fiscal 2021 (excluding rollover of WCDL facility) which includes Rs 50 crore of non-convertible debentures from a PSU Bank.
Weaknesses:
In fiscal 2021, the gross NPA position after reaching a peak of 9.4% in June 2020 decreased to 1.6% as on March 31, 2021, primarily on account of write-off of about Rs 2,860 crore done in fiscal 2021 (equivalent to 35.7% of opening AUM for fiscal 2021). With the onset of second wave, the GNPA inched up to 9.9% as on June 30, 2021 with limited write offs (0.3% of opening AUM for fiscal 2022) in the first quarter. Additionally, Home Credit India had restructured assets of 2.8% of portfolio as on June 30, 2021. The higher amount of write-off in the portfolio in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021 is also owing to change in write-off policy to 270+ days in March 2020 from 360+ days previously.
The impact on the asset quality metrics for Home Credit India is visible in the collection efficiencies remaining below pre-covid levels till July 2021. Last year, the collection efficiencies had ranged between 75-93%% during September 2020 to March 2021 which resulted in the substantial impact on the asset quality metrics for the full year.
While CRISIL Ratings understands that the collections efficiency of the portfolio generated from July 2020 has been at par with pre-covid level at about 98% in March 2021, the ability of the company to sustain collections and consequently improve asset quality metrics remains a key monitorable.
- Earnings profile to be impacted due to higher credit costs
Till fiscal 2019, Home Credit India’s earning profile was constrained by high provisioning and operating expenses given the substantial investments in building its infrastructure. In fiscal 2020, with the continued improvement in scale resulting in operating efficiencies as well as control on various expense lines, the company was able to improve its pre-provisioning operating profitability significantly. In terms of credit costs, the company changed its write-off policy to 270+ days in March 2020 from 360+ days previously. Consequently, the credit costs have been higher since fiscal 2020 also contributed by the macro economic scenario in addition to change in write-off policy. However, the company reported profit before tax of Rs 117 crore in fiscal 2020 against a loss before tax of Rs 86 crore in fiscal 2019.
In fiscal 2021, the operating expenses of the company further reduced, however, the credit costs were elevated at Rs 2,523 crore primarily from the write-offs resulting in a loss of Rs 1,221 crore for fiscal 2021. Currently, of the outstanding AUM, 20% of the book was impacted substantially post Covid which could result in incremental slippages and also lead to higher write-offs in the current fiscal which could keep profitability subdued. Nevertheless, the company has maintained conservative provisioning of 52% for stage-2 assets as on March 31, 2021 which are expected to be utilised in fiscal 2022. However, the incremental impact from the slippages on the credit cost and inturn on the overall earnings profile remains a key monitorable.