Rating Rationale
June 27, 2019 | Mumbai
JK Paper Limited
Rating outlook revised to 'Positive', CP upgraded to 'CRISIL A1+'
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.1752 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL A+/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable' and rating reaffirmed)
 
Non-Convertible Debentures Aggregating Rs.335 Crore   CRISIL A+/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable' and rating reaffirmed)
Rs.100 Crore Fixed Deposits FAA-/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable' and rating reaffirmed) 
Rs.50 Crore Commercial Paper CRISIL A1+ (Upgraded from 'CRISIL A1')
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has revised its outlook on the long-term bank facilities, non-convertible debentures and fixed deposit programme of JK Paper Limited (JKPL) to 'Positive' from 'Stable' while reaffirming the ratings at 'CRISIL A+/FAA-' and upgraded its rating on the commercial paper programme to 'CRISIL A1+' from 'CRISIL A1'.
 
The outlook revision reflects CRISIL's expectation of solid margins sustaining due to elevated realisations and operational efficiency. It also factors in a reasonable increase in leverage due to the packaging board capital expenditure (capex) because of solid accrual in fiscals 2020 and 2021.
 
The short-term rating has been upgraded due to strong liquidity and ample cash and cash equivalents, undrawn bank lines, and healthy accrual. CRISIL expects the company to maintain a minimum cash balance of about Rs 200 crore to meet any contingencies.
 
In fiscal 2019, JK Paper's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) margin was over 27%, up from 22% in fiscal 2018, driven by higher realisations and continued operational improvements. The solid profitability helped the company deleverage sharply: net debt to EBITDA was approximately 1.0 time in March 31, 2019, compared to 1.7 times a year earlier.
 
In January 2019, the central Government imposed a three-year anti-dumping duty with a threshold price of $855 per tonne towards the import of uncoated copier paper from Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand. This, coupled with healthy demand and moderate domestic supply, should support prices and margin.
 
CRISIL expects net debt to EBITDA to remain below 2.5 times in fiscal 2021 despite the large capacity expansion plan due to solid EBITDA, which should also be boosted by incremental volumes from Sirpur Paper Mills, especially in fiscal 2021.   
 
The rating continues to factor in the strong operational efficiency at the Odisha plant, along with continued initiatives for wood plantation through the farm forestry programme, which have resulted in reduced operating costs. Operating efficiency arise on account of lower inputs used per tonne of paper produced and is a durable source of advantage.
 
The company's expansion plan in the virgin-based packaging board segment, at a capex of about Rs 1,750 crore over the next three fiscals, should help consolidate its leading market position while also driving margin improvement due to higher pulp integration for the CPM plant in Gujarat. The company has acquired The Sirpur Paper Mills (SPM), which is a positive for the credit profile, with 1.38 lakh tonne capacity at attractive valuations. The company is entitled to benefits such as capital subsidies, lower coal linkage prices, and cheaper power from the grid, which have been approved by the Government of Telangana.
 
The ratings also reflect JKPL's superior position in the domestic writing and printing (WPP) market and healthy product and geographical diversification. These strengths are partially offset by inherent cyclicality in the industry and project execution risks related to ramp-up of SPM and the packaging board capex.

Analytical Approach

The company has been assessed by combining the business and financial risk profiles of JKPL with SPM, which was acquired in fiscal 2019.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Leading market position in the WPP market: JKPL is one of the largest players in the domestic WPP and paper board space, with an installed capacity of 455,000 tonne per annum. The company's sustained market position is backed by its leadership in the copier segment, established brands offering premiums, a diversified product portfolio and clientele, and a robust distribution network. Acquisition of SPM and packaging board expansion will continue to aid its leadership position.
 
* Strong and improving operational efficiency: Cost benefits are accrued from the company's unit in Rayagada (commissioned in fiscal 2014), which is operating at over 100% capacity utilisation. Consequently, operating margin has steadily increased over the last few fiscals. Improvement in margin will sustain over the medium term, as it is driven by underlying process efficiency that economises on inputs used per tonne of production. Also, JKPL has made efforts to ensure enhanced raw material security of hardwood, a key raw material, through wider acreage proximal catchment areas. Around 90% of the total plantation is under catchment areas of less than 200 kilometres in the current fiscal, up from 88% a year ago.
 
* Improved financial risk profile: Balance sheet has strengthened with reduced leverage, lower debt servicing post refinancing, and healthier liquidity. Net debt to EBITDA improved to 1.02 times as on March 31, 2019, from 1.71 times a year earlier. Apart from improved profitability, the financial risk profile is also supported by refinancing with a longer tenure debt and efficient working capital management. Liquidity is adequate, with cash and liquid investments of Rs 673 crore as on March 31, 2019, prudent working capital management, and undrawn credit limit.

However, leverage is expected to increase over fiscals 2020-21 due to investment of about Rs 2,000 crore towards expansion plan and SPM. While SPM should contribute to operating profit by fiscal 2020, the packaging board capex is likely to contribute to profitability only from fiscal 2022 onwards, thus exposing the company to moderately higher leverage in the interim.   
 
Weaknesses
* Exposure to implementation risk in both capex and turnaround of SPM
SPM is a sick unit, whose timely turnaround and ramp up in operations should pose implementation risks. Additionally, JKPL's virgin-based packaging board capacity expansion is a non-modular and fairly large capex, given the size of its balance sheet. However, the brownfield nature of the capex and the company's execution track record mitigate these risks.
 
* Exposure to cyclicality inherent in the industry
Long gestation period in capacity addition and lead time in raw material generation, among other factors, make the paper industry inherently cyclical. During the 2014 cyclical downturn in the industry, enhanced scarcity of raw material had negatively affected margin. While the company has improved availability of hardwood near its plants through its farm forestry programme, it remains exposed to any sharp increase in hardwood prices due to higher minimum support prices of agricultural commodities. Furthermore, efficiency-related technology improvements in the space require periodic capacity upgrades, leading to high capital intensity over time.
Liquidity

Cash and liquid investments were Rs 673 crore at the end of fiscal 2019. CRISIL expects the company to maintain a minimum cash and liquid assets balance of Rs 200 crore as contingency reserve. Net cash accrual adequately covers maturing debt. Undrawn bank lines of Rs 232 crore provide additional cushion to liquidity.

Outlook: Positive

CRISIL believes JKPL should post solid operating profit, underpinned by stable realisations and continued cost efficiency.
 
Upside scenario:
Solid accrual, driven by supportive realisations and continued cost efficiency
 
Downside scenario:
Lower-than-expected profitability and accrual
Delay in implementation of capex leading to sustained high leverage
Sizeable debt-funded acquisition resulting in material increase in leverage and weakening of debt protection metrics

About the Company

Incorporated in 1960, JKPL has two manufacturing plants, one each in Songadh (Gujarat) and Rayagada (Odisha). The Songadh plant produces copier paper and paper boards, and the Rayagada unit produces copier paper and coated paper. The company has an annual capacity of 455,000 mt of paper and paper boards.
 
In July 2018, JKPL acquired SPM with a capacity of 138 kt from the National Company Law Tribunal process for an enterprise consideration of Rs 750 crore, including incremental capex and working capital investments.
 
In fiscal 2019, JKPL's profit after tax was Rs 425 crore (Rs 260 crore the previous fiscal) on revenue of Rs 3,257 crore (Rs 2,877 crore the previous fiscal).

Key Financial Indicators
Particulars Unit 2019 2018
Revenue Rs. Cr 3,257 2,877
Profit after tax Rs. Cr 425 260
PAT margin % 13 9
Adjusted gearing times 0.75 0.64
Interest coverage times 7.4 4.5
Current ratio times 1.61 1.05

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of Instrument Date of Allotment Coupon Rate (%) Maturity Date Issue Size (Rs. Cr) Rating Assigned
with Outlook
INE789E07183 Debenture 27-Nov-18 NA 15-Jul-28 335 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Fixed Deposits Programme NA NA NA 100 FAA-/Positive
NA Commercial Paper NA NA 7-365 days 50 CRISIL A1+
NA Proposed Rupee Term Loan NA NA NA 291.92 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Working Capital Facility NA NA NA 720 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Rupee Term Loan NA NA 31-Mar-24 243.78 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Rupee Term Loan NA NA 31-Mar-24 119.65 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Rupee Term Loan NA NA 15-Mar-23 34.43 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Rupee Term Loan NA NA 31-Mar-24 29.49 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Rupee Term Loan NA NA 31-May-22 9.2 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Rupee Term Loan NA NA 31-Mar-24 105.53 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Rupee Term Loan NA NA 30-Sep-27 136 CRISIL A+/Positive
NA Rupee Term Loan NA NA 01-Sep-21 62 CRISIL A+/Positive
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2019 (History) 2018  2017  2016  Start of 2016
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Commercial Paper  ST  50.00  CRISIL A1+      27-08-18  CRISIL A1  31-10-17  CRISIL A1    --  -- 
            03-07-18  CRISIL A1  12-07-17  CRISIL A1       
            14-03-18  CRISIL A1  17-04-17  CRISIL A1       
Fixed Deposits  FD  100.00  FAA-/Positive      27-08-18  FAA-/Stable  31-10-17  FA+/Positive    --  -- 
            03-07-18  FAA-/Stable           
            14-03-18  FA+/Positive           
Non Convertible Debentures  LT  335.00
27-06-19 
CRISIL A+/Positive      27-08-18  CRISIL A+/Stable  31-10-17  CRISIL A/Positive    --  -- 
            03-07-18  CRISIL A+/Stable  12-07-17  CRISIL A/Stable       
            14-03-18  CRISIL A/Positive  17-04-17  CRISIL A/Stable       
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  1752.00  CRISIL A+/Positive      27-08-18  CRISIL A+/Stable  31-10-17  CRISIL A/Positive/ CRISIL A1    --  -- 
            03-07-18  CRISIL A+/Stable/ CRISIL A1  12-07-17  CRISIL A/Stable/ CRISIL A1       
            14-03-18  CRISIL A/Positive/ CRISIL A1  17-04-17  CRISIL A/Stable/ CRISIL A1       
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Proposed Rupee Term Loan 291.92 CRISIL A+/Positive Proposed Rupee Term Loan 62.84 CRISIL A+/Stable
Rupee Term Loan 740.08 CRISIL A+/Positive Rupee Term Loan 969.16 CRISIL A+/Stable
Working Capital Facility 720 CRISIL A+/Positive Working Capital Facility 720 CRISIL A+/Stable
Total 1752 -- Total 1752 --
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for Paper Industry
Understanding CRISILs Ratings and Rating Scales

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