Rating Rationale
March 26, 2020 | Mumbai
Lemon Tree Hotels Limited
Rating outlook revised to 'Negative', rating reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.250 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL A-/Negative (Outlook revised from 'Stable' and rating reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has revised the outlook on the long-term bank facilities of Lemon Tree Hotels Limited (LTHL; a part of the Lemon Tree group) to 'Negative' from 'Stable' and reaffirmed the 'CRISIL A-' rating.
 
The rating action follows measures taken by various state governments towards containment of Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19), which includes temporary closure of non-critical establishments and inter-state transportation along with advisory against travel and visiting areas of mass gatherings. These measures are likely to impact the business risk profile of the Lemon Tree group as the travel restrictions are likely to result in a steep decline in occupancy level and thereby may have an impact on its credit quality, especially liquidity. While, most of the state government's measures are applicable till March 31, 2020, revocation of the measures will be contingent upon directive from the Central government and extent of spread of Covid-19. A sustained long period of closures can significantly deteriorate the credit risk profile. Alternatively, a faster reversal to normalcy may contain the extent of deterioration. That said, the ability of the business to revert back to operational stability and any relief measures given by the government will be a key monitorable, and CRISIL will continue monitoring these events.
 
For the first 9 months of fiscal 2020, the group had an occupancy of 70-75%, which declined to 25-35% in March 2020 on account of the travel restrictions. LTHL has proactively reduced its cost and augmented liquidity amid fall in occupancy levels. It is conserving cash by reducing the workforce and deferring maintenance and capital expenditure (capex).
 
The group has tied up with various multinational companies and information technology companies to provide prolonged stay options to the employees working in the company's guest houses, which were shut on account of government restrictions. The sustenance of this arrangement and its impact on occupancy rates and profitability will be the key monitorables.
 
Currently LTHL has liquidity, in the form of cash and bank balance, undrawn committed bank lines and other liquid investments, which should be sufficient to meet its curtailed operating cost and debt obligation for the next few months. LTHL is looking to augment its liquidity through additional bank facilities. CRISIL will closely monitor occupancy and the financial risk profile over the next few months.
 
The rating continues to reflect the Lemon Tree group's established position in the hotel industry, diversified revenue, and healthy financial flexibility. The strengths are partially offset by its moderately aggressive debt-funded growth plans, which will increase financial leverage. Furthermore, with a substantial portion of capital tied-up in under-construction hotels, return on investment will be low, leading to below-average debt protection metrics and modest return on capital employed (RoCE).

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the rating, CRISIL has combined the business and financial risk profiles of LTHL and its subsidiaries, collectively referred to as the Lemon Tree group, because they have strong business and financial linkages. The subsidiaries construct or operate hotels under the Lemon Tree Premier, Lemon Tree, and Red Fox brands, and provide services to group companies. 

Please refer Annexure - List of entities consolidated, which captures the list of entities considered and their analytical treatment of consolidation.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
* Established position and healthy revenue diversity:
The Lemon Tree group is among the top three hotel chains (by number of rooms) in India. It is present across three segments: premium economy, midscale, and budget. The group has 79 hotels across 47 cities, wherein 33 are owned, 8 are leased, and 38 are under management or franchisee contracts. This includes 7 owned and 14 managed Keys Hotels, which were added to the portfolio after acquisition of Berggruen Hotels Pvt Ltd (BHPL) in fiscal 2020. Diversified service offering provides strength and stability to the group's business risk profile by reducing the risk associated with a single price point and limited locations. As it expands, the group will continue to benefit from its positive brand recall.

* Healthy growth in occupancy and average room rate (ARR): 
The group's occupancy and ARR increased to around 75% and Rs 4,200, respectively, in fiscal 2019, from 66% and Rs 2,900, respectively, in fiscal 2014. The increase in ARRs and occupancy was driven by established brand, repeat clientele, and growth in business travellers segment. However, the impact of Covid-19 on operating metrics will be closely monitored.

* Healthy financial flexibility with regular equity infusion:
Equity more than Rs 1,500 crore has been raised between fiscals 2006 and 2019, irrespective of the funding climate, which reflects the Lemon Tree group's high financial flexibility. Hence, capital structure is comfortable, with gearing less than 1 time since fiscal 2013. Also, liquidity is supported by the improving net cash accrual because of expansion in capacity and long tenure of debt, leading to manageable debt obligation. The group's prudent funding policy for capex will ensure a stable financial risk profile over the medium term, while its ability to raise equity and contract debt on attractive terms will support the financial flexibility.

Weaknesses:
* Aggressive expansion strategy, resulting in below-average debt protection metrics, and exposure to stabilisation risk:
The group started its first hotel in 2004 with 49 rooms. Since then, it has grown rapidly to 41 operational hotels (owned or leased) and around 5,200 rooms. Though expansion was funded through a prudent mix of debt and equity, high interest costs and subdued profitability led to below-average debt protection metrics. Debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation ratio (EBITDA) and interest coverage were stretched at 7.1 times and 2.1 times, respectively, in fiscal 2019. With favourable interest rates, increasing ARRs in established properties, and successful ramp up of new hotels, debt to EBITDA ratio and interest coverage are expected to improve to 6.0 times and 2.3 times, respectively, in fiscal 2020. Funding of capex and stabilisation of added room capacity will be the key monitorables.

* Large, under-construction portfolio, leading to low RoCE:
RoCE improved marginally to 5% in fiscal 2019 from 1-3% over fiscals 2013 to 2016. A substantial portion of capital is employed in under-construction projects, leading to a low RoCE. As new hotels become operational, the ratio of operational to total rooms is likely to improve. Furthermore, expansion through leased properties rather than owned properties will lead to better RoCE.
Liquidity Adequate

The group's available liquid balance in the form of cash, mutual funds and undrawn bank facilities should be sufficient to cover the fixed costs and debt obligations for around one quarter in case operating cash flows deteriorate significantly. Further, debt repayment stretched over 10-15 years cushions liquidity. The group's ability to raise equity and contract debt on attractive terms supports its financial flexibility.

Outlook: Negative

CRISIL believes the Lemon Tree group's financial risk profile may weaken if the travel restrictions are prolonged.

Rating Sensitivity Factors 
Upward Factors
*Higher-than-expected improvement in the debt protection metrics because of fund inflow through equity infusion
*Growth in revenue and sustenance of operating margin at more than 40%
 
Downward Factors
*Prolonged travel restrictions, leading to occupancy below 50%
*Weakening of the financial risk profile because of decrease in operating profitability.

About the Group

Founded by Mr Patanjali Keswani in September 2002, the Lemon Tree group owns and operates 28 hotels in 13 cities, with 3,236 rooms and 3,000 employees. The first hotel in Gurugram, Haryana, commenced operations in 2004. The group operates under three brands: Lemon Tree Premier (upscale), Lemon Tree Hotels (midscale), and Red Fox Hotels (economy). It has a management arm that leverages the Lemon Tree brand and provides managerial and operational services to hotel owners. Currently, the group operates 11 hotels across India under such management contracts.
 
In 2012, the APG group (APG), a Netherlands-based pension fund, invested in Fleur Hotels Pvt Ltd (Fleur Hotels), subsidiary of LTHL. As on March 31, 2018, APG owned 42.02% stake in Fleur Hotels.
 
In 2019, LTHL completed its initial public offering for 24.9% stake. The promoter continues to own 31% stake.
 
In fiscal 2020, the Lemon Tree group acquired BHPL, which owns and operates 21 hotels under the Keys Hotels brand across India.
 
For the 9 months ended December 31, 2019, LTHL reported a net profit of Rs 6 crore on revenue of Rs 493 crore, compared with a profit of Rs 23 crore on revenue of Rs 400 crore for the corresponding period in the previous fiscal.

Key Financial Indicators
As on/for the period ended March 31 Unit 2019 2018
Revenue Rs crore 550 485
Profit after tax (PAT) Rs crore 56 15
PAT margin % 10.2 3.0
Adjusted debt/Adjusted networth Times 0.9 0.8
Interest coverage Times 2.1 1.8

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size (Rs.Cr) Rating assigned with outlook
NA Overdraft NA NA NA 20.0 CRISIL A-/Negative
NA Term Loan NA NA 27-Mar-2030 210.0 CRISIL A-/Negative
NA Proposed Long Term Bank Loan Facility NA NA NA 20.0 CRISIL A-/Negative
 
Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated
Name of entities Extent of consolidation Rationale for consolidation
Fleur Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Begonia Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Canary Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Carnation Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Dandelion Hotels Pvt Ltd  Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Lemon Tree Hotel Company Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Manakin Resorts Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Meringue Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Nightingale Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Oriole Dr Fresh Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Sukhsagar Complexes Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
PSK Resorts & Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Red Fox Hotel Company Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Grey Fox Project Management Company Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Valerian Management Services Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Celsia Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Inovoa Hotels And Resorts Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Iora Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Ophrys Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Hyacinth Hotels Pvt Ltd Full Strong managerial, operational, and financial linkages
Mind Leaders Learning India Pvt Ltd Equity method Joint Venture/Associate - Proportionate consolidation
Pelican Facilities Management Pvt Ltd Equity method Joint Venture/Associate - Proportionate consolidation
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2020 (History) 2019  2018  2017  Start of 2017
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  250.00  CRISIL A-/Negative      16-08-19  CRISIL A-/Stable  02-07-18  CRISIL A-/Stable  28-07-17  CRISIL A-/Stable  CRISIL BBB+/Positive 
            09-07-19  CRISIL A-/Stable  29-06-18  CRISIL A-/Stable       
            22-03-19  CRISIL A-/Stable           
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Overdraft 20 CRISIL A-/Negative Overdraft 20 CRISIL A-/Stable
Proposed Long Term Bank Loan Facility 20 CRISIL A-/Negative Proposed Long Term Bank Loan Facility 20 CRISIL A-/Stable
Term Loan 210 CRISIL A-/Negative Term Loan 210 CRISIL A-/Stable
Total 250 -- Total 250 --
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings
CRISILs Criteria for Consolidation

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