Rating Rationale
July 22, 2020 | Mumbai
Northern Arc 2020 2W Tribbiani
(Originator: Muthoot Capital Services Limited)
'Provisional CRISIL AAA (SO)' assigned to Series A1 (a) PTCs and 'Provisional CRISIL AA (SO)' assigned to Series A1 (b) PTCs 
 
Rating Action
Trust Name Details Amount Rated
(Rs Crore)
Pool Principal
(Rs Crore) 
Original Tenure
(Months)
Credit Collateral (Rs Crore) Ratings/ Credit Opinion@ Rating Action
Northern Arc 2020 2W Tribbiani Series A1 (a) PTCs 84.07 112.10 32 8.0 Provisional CRISIL AAA (SO) Provisional Rating Assigned
Series A1 (b) PTCs 16.81 33 Provisional CRISIL AA (SO)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
@A prefix of 'Provisional' indicates that the rating centrally factors in the strength of specific structures, and will be supported by certain critical documentation by the issuer, without which the rating would either have been different or not assigned ab initio. This is in compliance with a May 6, 2015, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) directive, 'Standardising the term, rating symbol, and manner of disclosure with regard to conditional/ provisional/ in-principle ratings assigned by CRAs'.
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has assigned its 'Provisional CRISIL AAA (SO)' rating to Series A1 (a) and 'Provisional CRISIL AA (SO)' rating to Series A1 (b) pass-through certificates (PTCs) issued by Northern Arc 2020 2W Tribbiani. The pool is backed by two-wheeler loan receivables originated by Muthoot Capital Services Ltd (MCSL; 'CRISIL A/ FA+/Stable/CRISIL A1'). The ratings are based on the credit support available to the PTCs, the credit quality of the underlying pool receivables, MCSL's origination and servicing capabilities, and soundness of the transaction's legal structure.
 
The transaction has a 'par with monthly subordinated excess interest spread (EIS)' structure, wherein the trust settled by Catalyst Trusteeship Limited (CTL) will issue Series A1 (a) PTCs and Series A1 (b) PTCs in exchange of a purchase consideration equal to 90.00% of the pool principal at the time of securitisation. Total credit support available in the transaction is as follows:

  • Internal credit support in the form of scheduled cash flow subordination, aggregating Rs 43.75 crore (39.0% of pool principal or 32.4% of pool cashflows) for Series A1 (a) PTCs and Rs 26.93 crore  (24.0% of pool principal or 20.0% of pool cashflows) for Series A1 (b) PTCs.
  • External credit-cum-liquidity collateral of Rs 8.0 crore (7.1% of pool principal or 5.9% of pool cashflows) also provides support to Series A1 (a), Series A1(b) PTCs.

Series A1 (a) and Series A1 (b) PTC holders are entitled to receive timely interest on a monthly basis, while the principal payment is promised on an ultimate basis.Principal payment of Series A1 (b) is subordinated to Series A1 (a) PTC. Final maturity of Series A1 (a) PTCs is one month before final maturity of Series A1 (b) PTCs. CTL has been appointed to monitor the transaction on behalf of the PTC holders. MCSL will continue to service the pool contracts as the servicing agent.
 
None of the contracts in the pool has availed the moratorium till cutoff date (i.e. May 31, 2020). Investor has provided consent for moratorium to the underlying borrowers for June-Aug 2020 collections (who will opt for moratorium) i.e. in case of any shortfall arising due to grant of moratorium in the moratorium period, the credit enhancement will not be utilised. Final legal maturity of the pool has been extended by 3 months from the scheduled maturity date.
  
This is a 'provisional' rating and will be converted into a 'final' rating on receipt of the following documents:

  • Trust deed
  • Assignment agreement
  • Power of attorney
  • Information memorandum
  • Legal opinion
  • Trustee letter
  • Auditor's certificate
  • Representations and warranties letter

Additional documents, if any, executed for the transaction should also be provided. A rating rationale/report indicating the conversion of the 'provisional' rating into 'final' following receipt of all the required final legal documents will be published on the CRISIL website. Please click on the link below for detailed information on CRISIL's policy on provisional rating: Revision in CRISIL policy for assigning 'provisional' rating.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Supporting Factors
  • Credit support available in the structure
    • Credit collateral of Rs 8.0 crore (7.1% of the pool principal or 5.9% of pool cashflows) provides credit support to Series A1 (a) PTCs and Series A1(b) PTCs. The PTCs also benefit from scheduled cashflow subordination aggregating Rs 43.75 crore for Series A1 (a) PTCs and Rs. 26.93 crore for Series A1(b) PTCs.
  • Moderate seasoning of contracts in the pool
    • The contracts in the pool have a weighted average seasoning of 7.4 months, and consequently, the pool is moderately amortised by 24.3% as of the cut-off date
Constraining Factors
  • High risk profile of underlying asset class
    • The pool is backed by two-wheeler loans, an asset class which has historically exhibited higher delinquency
  • Impact of Covid-19 pandemic
    • Uncertainty regarding the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the magnitude of resultant asset quality implications on retail asset classes such as Two wheelers.
    • Collection efficiency for the underlying pool post the expiry of the RBI-permitted moratorium period remains key monitorables.
Rating Sensitivity factors
Upward for Series A1 (b)

  • Credit enhancement  (based on both internal and external credit enhancements) available in the structure exceeding 3.5 times the estimated base case shortfalls on the residual cash flows of the pool.
Downward
  • Credit collateral (internal and external combined) falling below 2.25 times the estimated base case loss
  • A sharp downgrade in the rating of the servicer/originator 
  • Non-adherence to the key transaction terms envisaged at the time of the rating
Liquidity: Strong
  • The credit cum liquidity enhancement available in the transaction is Rs 8.0 crore (7.1% of the pool principal) which is in the form of fixed deposit. Liquidity is strong given that the credit enhancement (internal and external combined) in the structure is sufficient to cover losses exceeding 1.5 times the currently estimated base shortfalls. Furthermore, principal payouts are promised to the investors on an ultimate basis only
CRISIL has adequately factored these aspects into its rating analysis.
 
About the pool
The pool cash flow is securitised and comprises receivables from two-wheeler loans originated by MCSL. The pool has a weighted average net seasoning of 7.4 months, with Kerala, West Bengal and Karnataka accounting for 61.7% of the pool principal outstanding. Average ticket size of the pool is Rs 60,048. All contracts in the pool were current as on the cut-off date (May 31, 2019).


Rating Assumptions
To assess the base case shortfalls for the transaction, CRISIL has analysed moving portfolio delinquency and static pool information (with information on 90+ overdues) for auto loan portfolio provided by MCSL for originations in the period FY 2011 to Mar 2020 (with performance data till Mar 2020). The 90+ dpd for the two wheeler loan portfolio of MCSL is 7.0% as of March 2020.

CRISIL has also factored in pool specific characteristics and estimated the base case shortfalls in the pool by the maturity of the transaction in the range of 6.0% to 8.0% of pool principal.

  • CRISIL has assumed a stressed monthly prepayment rate of 0.1 to 0.7% in its analysis.
  • Based on its assessment of MCSL's short-term credit risk profile, CRISIL has factored in the risk arising out of commingling of cash flows.
  • CRISIL has adequately factored in the risks arising on account of counterparties (refer to counterparty details below)
  • CRISIL has run sensitivities based on various shortfall curves (front-ended, back-ended and normal) and has adequately factored the same in its analysis.

Counterparty details

Capacity

Counterparty Name

Counterparty Rating/ Track record

Effect on credit ratings in case of non-performance

Originator MCSL Rated 'CRISIL A/FA+/Stable/CRISIL A1' No effect.
Servicer
 
MCSL Rated 'CRISIL A/FA+/Stable/CRISIL A1' Significant effect, because of change in servicing quality and replacement cost of servicer. However, currently CRISIL does not envisage the need for replacement. Under certain circumstances, the trust or investor has the right to change the servicer by providing an intimation to CRISIL.
Collection and Payout Account Bank ICICI Bank Limited Rated 'CRISIL AAA/CRISIL AA+/Stable' Negligible effect. Account bank can be changed without impacting the rating.
Collateral in the form of Fixed Deposit DCB Bank Limited Rated 'CRISIL AA-/Stable/CRISIL A1+' Negligible effect. Bank with whom the fixed deposit is maintained can be changed without impacting the rating.
Trustee CTL Adequate track record Negligible effect. Can be replaced at minimal cost.

About the originator
Set up in 1994, MCSL is a deposit-taking, systemically important NBFC. Though the Company started its operations in 1995, it started its lending activities in 1998 after acquiring an NBFC license. Though initially the Company was doing some amount of Gold Loans, subsequently, as the group scaled up its gold financing business in MFL, MCSL entered the two-wheeler financing segment again in fiscal 2008 and gradually exited the gold loan business. MCSL is listed on Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange, and is the only listed company of MPG. As on March 31, 2020, its advances portfolio of Rs 2,650 crore comprised 92% two-wheeler loans and 8% corporate loans.

Past rated pools
CRISIL has outstanding ratings on 10 transactions originated by MCSL. CRISIL has received the legal documents for the transactions, and receives monthly performance reports pertaining to all CRISIL-rated MCSL originated securitisation transactions.
Key Financial Indicators
Particulars March 31 Unit 2020 2019 2018
Total Assets Rs. crore 2913 2261 1,978
Total Income Rs. crore 587 535 398
Profit after tax Rs. crore 60 82 54
Gross NPA % 6.7 5.4 4.6
Adjusted Gearing Times 4.7 4.7 4.5
Return On Managed Assets % 2.0 3.2 2.9

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments and are included (where applicable) in the Annexure -- Details of Instrument in this Rating Rationale. For more details on the CRISIL complexity levels, please visit www.crisil.com/complexity-levels.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
Type of Instrument Rated Amount
(Rs crore)
Date of
Allotment
Maturity Date* Coupon
Rate (%)
Outstanding
Rating
Complexity level Credit cum liquidity Enhancement (Rs crore)
Series A1 (a) PTCs 84.07 06-July-2020 14-Feb-23 9.25% Provisional CRISIL AAA (SO)* Highly Complex 8.0
Series A1 (b) PTCs 16.81 14-Mar-23 9.85% Provisional CRISIL AA (SO)^
*Indicates door to door tenure. Actual tenure will depend on the level of prepayments in the pool, and exercise of the clean-up call option
* Additional credit support includes Rs.43.75 crore in form of scheduled cash flow subordination (assuming zero prepayments) - Includes, Series A1 (b) PTCs of Rs. 16.81 crore (15.0% of pool principal) and overcollateralization of Rs. 11.21 crore (10.0% of pool principal)
^Additional credit support includes Rs. 26.93 crore in the form of scheduled cash flow subordination (assuming zero prepayments) - Includes overcollateralization of Rs.11.21 crore (10.0% of pool principal)
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2020 (History) 2019  2018  2017  Start of 2017
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Series A1 (a) PTCs LT  84.07 Provisional CRISIL AAA (SO)                  
Series A1 (b) PTCs LT   16.81 Provisional CRISIL AA (SO)                  
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Total 0 -- Total 0 --
Links to related criteria
CRISILs rating methodology for ABS transactions
Evaluating risks in securitisation transactions - A primer
Legal analysis in structured finance transactions

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