Rating Rationale
May 27, 2022 | Mumbai
Nabha Power Limited
Rating Reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Rs.2300 Crore Commercial PaperCRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to Annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities

Detailed Rationale

CRISIL Ratings has reaffirmed its ‘CRISIL A1+’ rating on the commercial paper (CP) programme of Nabha Power Limited (NPL).

 

The rating continues to reflect the long-term cash flow visibility for NPL through availability-based tariff structure, track record of timely payments of monthly undisputed billings by PSPCL (Punjab State Power Corporation Limited) and strong debt service coverage ratio (DSCR). These strengths are partially offset by modest returns due to i) pending resolution of legacy disputes such as mega power status scheme and deduction of capacity charges, and ii) weak credit risk profile of the counterparty.

 

For fiscal 2022, cumulative plant availability factor (PAF) was above the normative level of 85% resulting in full recovery of capacity charges. Plant load factor (PLF) rose to 79% from 65% in fiscal 2021 driven by higher demand on normalization of economic activities and favourable position on merit order dispatch (MOD). The company reduced debt from around Rs 6,770 crore as of March 2021 to around Rs 5,341 crore in March 2022 led by recovery of pending coal washing charges as well as cash accrual.

Analytical Approach

To arrive at the ratings, CRISIL Ratings has assessed the standalone business and financial risk profiles of the company. Furthermore, any financial or management support from the ultimate parent, Larsen and Toubro Ltd (L&T; ‘CRISIL AAA/FAAA/Stable/CRISIL A1+’) is not considered as the company has been considered as a part of non-core assets by L&T and the parent has publicly articulated its intent to divest the assets.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description

Strengths:

  • Low offtake and fuel supply risk, and availability-based tariff structure that provides cash flow visibility: NPL has tied up its total capacity of 1,320 megawatt (MW) through a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) of 25 years with PSPCL under a two-part tariff structure, wherein full recovery of capacity charges (quoted at the time of bidding) is allowed if PAF of over 85% is maintained each year while energy charges are completely pass-through. This provides strong cash flow visibility over the project life. NPL has a track record of maintaining PAF above the normative level since commissioning, thereby enabling it to recover full capacity charges. Besides, it has a fuel supply agreement with South Eastern Coalfields Ltd and Northern Coalfields limited for 20 years, leading to low fuel supply risk.

 

  • Strong debt service coverage ratio (DSCR): The average DSCR over the life of the PPA has improved considerably following significant debt reduction over the past two fiscals. Furthermore, the cash flow would benefit from return accretive flue gas desulphurization (FGD) project and stable income from fly ash which is sold through long-term and medium-term contracts. Currently, the project is funded through short to medium-term debt and the refinancing risk is mitigated by stable cash flows and the long-term PPA which extends well beyond the term of the debt.

 

Weaknesses:

  • Modest project returns due to tariff under-recovery: L&T was awarded the project by Punjab State Electricity Board (PSEB) under the Case-II competitive bidding guidelines of the Government of India (GoI). However, the returns from the project have been modest due to i) under-recovery of fixed tariff stemming from pending resolution of the dispute pertaining to mega power status scheme, ii) deduction of capacity charges pertaining to April and May 2020 on force majeure invocation by PSPCL, iii) fuel cost under-recovery owing to higher than quoted station heating rate (SHR) and GCV differentials of revenue and cost. Favourable outcomes on these disputes can improve project returns and remain key monitorables.

 

  • Exposure to counterparty risks: The offtake risk is low as the plant is placed favourably on the merit order dispatch (MOD) due to low cost of power among the thermal power stations in Punjab. However, NPL faces the risk of delayed payments by the counterparty as most distribution companies in the country, including PSPCL, have weak financial risk profiles. This is because the average revenue realised per unit is lower than the average cost of supply due to higher aggregate technical & commercial (AT&C) losses. PSPCL has been clearing the monthly undisputed billings within 30 days for last several years and earns a rebate of around 1% as per the PPA provision. Nonetheless, NPL remains exposed to the risk of delayed payments.

Liquidity: Strong

Net cash accrual in fiscal 2023 is expected to be at Rs 500-600 crore. Furthermore, the company is able to refinance its maturing debt due to strong and stable cash flow. The company is separately contracting means of finance for the FGD project thus no pressure on the cash flows. Working capital bank lines of Rs 200 crore remain utilized at ~3% in past 12 months through March-2022.

Rating Sensitivity factors

Downward factors:

  • PAF sustaining below the normative level of 85%
  • Sustained increase in undisputed receivables’ period beyond 120 days

About the Company

NPL is a special purpose vehicle formed by PSEB to develop a super-critical coal-based thermal power project in Rajpura, Punjab. Bid documents were floated by PSEB in line with the Case-II competitive bidding guidelines of the Government of India. L&T Power Development Ltd (L&T PDL), a 100% subsidiary of L&T, was identified as the lowest bidder and a letter of intent was awarded to L&T PDL in November 2009 to set up the power plant on a build, own, operate basis. The ownership of NPL was transferred to L&T PDL and a long-term PPA of 25 years was signed with PSEB for 1,320 MW capacity on January 18, 2010. The cost of the project was Rs 9,900 crore and units 1 and 2 commenced commercial operations in February 2014 and July 2014, respectively.

Key Financial Indicators - Standalone*

As on / for the period ended March 31

 

2022

2021

Operating Income

Rs crore

4,128.88

3,398.40

Profit after tax (PAT)

Rs crore

301.82

163.86

PAT margin

%

7.3

4.82

Debt/adjusted networth

Times

1.25

1.85

Interest coverage

Times

2.07

1.55

   * CRISIL Ratings-adjusted numbers

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL Ratings' complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL Ratings' complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL Ratings' complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.

Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)

ISIN

Name of instrument

Date of allotment

Coupon

rate (%)

Maturity

date

Issue size
(Rs crore)

Complexity

level

Rating assigned

with outlook

NA

Commercial Paper

NA

NA

7-365 days

2300

Simple

CRISIL A1+

 

Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2022 (History) 2021  2020  2019  Start of 2019
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Commercial Paper ST 2300.0 CRISIL A1+   -- 29-10-21 CRISIL A1+ 28-10-20 CRISIL A1+ 30-10-19 CRISIL A1+ CRISIL A1+
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.

        

Criteria Details
Links to related criteria
Rating Criteria for Power Generation Utilities
CRISILs Criteria for rating short term debt

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