Rating Rationale
July 19, 2019 | Mumbai
SpiceJet Limited
Rating outlook revised to 'Positive'; ratings reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.1445 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL BB-/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Negative' and rating reaffirmed)
Short Term Rating CRISIL A4 (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has revised its outlook on the bank facilities of SpiceJet Limited (SpiceJet) to 'Positive' from 'Negative' and reaffirmed the ratings at 'CRISIL BB-/CRISIL A4' .
 
The outlook revision reflects the expectation of an improvement in SpiceJet's business risk profile in fiscal 2020, driven by an improvement in competitive scenario as well as settling down of the cost pressures witnessed by the industry in fiscal 2019. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices have decreased since November 2018 and are now at similar levels as of March 2018 after having increased 23% over March-November 2018. Also, the USD-INR exchange rate has settled at Rs 69-70 per dollar after having touched Rs 74.5 in October 2018. Hence, operating profit was healthy at Rs 224 crore during the second half of fiscal 2019, as against an operating loss of Rs 233 crore during the first half of the same fiscal.
 
Furthermore, the competitive intensity has eased to some extent after Jet Airways Ltd (Jet Airways) discontinued operations in April 2019. Jet Airways accounted for 15% of the domestic market share in 2018. Thus, SpiceJet witnessed significant passenger growth and an improvement in its market share to 14.7% in May 2019 from 12.3% a year ago. Moreover, SpiceJet has been able to grab maximum number of airport slots (130) that have been vacated by Jet Airways. SpiceJet's business risk profile should benefit from healthy passenger growth while any significant variation in ATF prices and USD-INR exchange rates will remain key monitorables.
 
The ratings continue to factor in SpiceJet's established market position and healthy operating metrics. These strengths are partially offset by, exposure to volatility in ATF prices and foreign exchange (forex) rates, and susceptibility to intense competition.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has combined the business and financial risk profiles of SpiceJet and its subsidiaries, including SpiceJet Merchandise Pvt Ltd and SpiceJet Technic Pvt Ltd. That is because all these companies, collectively referred to herein as SpiceJet, are in the same line of business and under a common management.
 
CRISIL has added the discounted value of future non-cancellable lease payments to arrive at adjusted debt, while such lease payments are added back to the operating profit to arrive at earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and rentals (EBITDAR). Debt protection metrics, including leverage and interest coverage ratios, are calculated using adjusted debt and EBITDAR.

Please refer Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated, which captures the list of entities considered and their analytical treatment of consolidation.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Strong market position

Market share improved to 14.7% during May 2019 as against 12.3% a year ago as Jet Airways discontinued operations. SpiceJet registered passenger growth of 24% in May 2019. Market share in the domestic market remained steady at 12-13% since June 2015. Passenger growth in the international market has also been healthy at 15.6% during May 2019.

The market position has benefitted from availability of additional Jet Airways' aircrafts despite grounding of 12 of its own Boeing 737 Max aircrafts after security concerns in April 2019. Furthermore, company has been allotted 130 slots vacated by Jet Airways ' largely on metros and Tier-I routes, which should complement the company's strong presence in routes connecting Tier-II and -III cities. Plans to significantly increase fleet size to 130-140 aircraft by fiscal 2020 should further help maintain the market position.

* Healthy operating metrics
SpiceJet's passenger load factor (PLF) has been the highest in the Indian aviation industry (above 91%) during the 41 months through May 2019, driven by efficient fleet utilisation. The PLF has further improved to 93-94% during February-May 2019, with the decline in the competitive intensity in the industry. Furthermore, the company has put in concerted efforts in building a strong brand by focussing on on-time performance and minimal cancellations. Ability to maintain PLFs while increasing passenger yields to partially balance the cost pressures will be crucial for continued high operational efficiency and hence remain a key monitorable.

Weaknesses
* Exposure to movement in ATF price, PLFs, and forex rates

ATF accounts for 35-40% of the total operating costs of industry players. Furthermore, ATF price is directly linked to global crude prices and therefore remains volatile. Moreover, industry players have limited capability to pass on the increase to passengers due to intense competition and the likely adverse impact on PLFs. 

Operations are also sensitive to forex rate fluctuation as lease rentals and maintenance costs, which account for 35-40% of the operating costs, are denominated in USD. While the ATF prices have decreased over the two quarters after having peaked in November 2018, they continue to remain volatile moving in-line with global crude prices. Ability to pass on any large variation in operating costs will remain constrained due to competitive intensity in the sector.

* Susceptibility to intense competition
Despite the halting of Jet Airways' operations, the domestic airline industry remains highly competitive, underpinned by frequent entry of new players and significant fleet addition by existing ones. During fiscal 2015, the industry saw the launch of services by Vistara and Air Asia India followed by addition of new players such as Air Carnival, Air Costa, Air Pegasus, TruJet, and Zoom Air over the 12 months through March 2018. Furthermore, factoring in current fleet addition plans, industry fleet size is estimated to grow to around 1,500 aircraft by fiscal 2025. These factors potentially expose the industry to intense price competition and adversely impact PLFs.
Liquidity

Liquidity remains moderate, supported by cash & bank balance of Rs 108 crore as on March 31, 2019. Although cash accrual was negative during fiscal 2019 due to the high cost pressure, however with the stabilisation of the costs and the improvement in market position, cash accrual is expected to improve in fiscal 2020. Liquidity in fiscal 2019 was also supported by the cash profit on the sale and lease back transaction of the new aircrafts.

Outlook: Positive

CRISIL believes business risk profile may improve with benign operating costs and a strong market position.  
 
Upside scenarios
* Better operating profits leading to steady improvement in liquidity
* Sustained improvement in market position with capacity addition, while maintaining PLFs
 
Downside scenarios
* Pressure on profitability due to increase in ATF price, competitive intensity, reduction in PLFs, or forex rate fluctuations.

About the Company

SpiceJet is currently promoted by Mr Ajay Singh who held above 60% in the company as on June 30, 2018. It is a low-cost carrier, and the fourth-largest airline in India by number of domestic passengers carried.

Set up as an air taxi provider in 1984, it diversified into providing domestic aviation services in 1993, and was renamed Modiluft Ltd in 1994.  The company got its current name in 2005 when the services were re-launched after being shut down in 1996. SpiceJet operated its first flight in May 2005. Mr Kalanidhi Maran acquired a controlling stake in SpiceJet in June 2010 through the Sun group; the stake was sold back to Mr Ajay Singh in January 2015. The airline operates a fleet of Boeing 737 and Bombardier Dash aircraft.

Key Financial Indicators (Standalone)
As on/for the period ended March 31  Units 2019 2018
Revenue Rs crore 9129 7811
Profit After Tax (PAT) Rs crore -316 567
PAT Margin % -3.5 7.3
Adjusted debt/adjusted networth Times NM NM
Interest coverage Times -0.05 5.21

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size (Rs crore) Rating assigned with outlook
NA Term Loan NA NA 13-Mar-19 250 CRISIL BB-/Positive
NA Term Loan NA NA 21-May-20 75 CRISIL BB-/Positive
NA Packing Credit in Foreign Currency NA NA NA 350 CRISIL A4
NA Letter of Credit^ NA NA NA 770 CRISIL A4
^Bank guarantee is a sub limit
 
Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated 
Names of entities consolidated Extent of consolidation Rationale for consolidation
SpiceJet Merchandise Pvt Ltd Fully consolidated Common line of business
SpiceJet Technic Pvt Ltd. Fully consolidated Common line of business
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2019 (History) 2018  2017  2016  Start of 2016
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  675.00  CRISIL BB-/Positive/ CRISIL A4      09-10-18  CRISIL BB-/Negative/ CRISIL A4    --    --  -- 
            07-08-18  CRISIL BBB/Stable/ CRISIL A3+           
            03-05-18  CRISIL BBB/Stable           
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  770.00  CRISIL A4      09-10-18  CRISIL A4    --    --  -- 
            07-08-18  CRISIL A3+           
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Letter of Credit^ 770 CRISIL A4 Letter of Credit^ 770 CRISIL A4
Packing Credit in Foreign Currency 350 CRISIL A4 Packing Credit in Foreign Currency 350 CRISIL A4
Term Loan 325 CRISIL BB-/Positive Term Loan 325 CRISIL BB-/Negative
Total 1445 -- Total 1445 --
^Bank guarantee is a sub limit
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
CRISILs Approach to Recognising Default
CRISILs Criteria for Consolidation
The Rating Process
Understanding CRISILs Ratings and Rating Scales

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