Rating Rationale
October 09, 2018 | Mumbai
SpiceJet Limited
Ratings downgraded to 'CRISIL BB-/Negative/CRISIL A4'
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.1445 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL BB-/Negative (Downgraded from 'CRISIL BBB/Stable')
Short Term Rating CRISIL A4 (Downgraded from 'CRISIL A3+')
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has downgraded its ratings on the bank facilities of SpiceJet Limited (SpiceJet) to 'CRISIL BB-/Negative/CRISIL A4' from 'CRISIL BBB/Stable/CRISIL A3+'.
 
The downgrade reflects CRISIL's belief that SpiceJet's operating performance will remain under pressure in the near to medium term, driven by significant increase in the operating cost and limited ability to pass on the increased cost to customers due to intense competition. Further, SpiceJet was expecting some cash infusion from the sale and lease back transactions that got delayed due to late delivery of the new aircrafts. Hence, liquidity profile has weakened.
 
Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices increased by 10% and Indian rupee depreciated 7.9% over the last three months. ATF is a major cost and accounts for 35-40% of total operating costs while 35-40% of costs (lease and maintenance) are dollar denominated. Despite such a sharp increase, airlines could not increase prices due to intense competition, with the second quarter being inherently weak.
 
Due to stretched liquidity, the company has sought a three-month relief window from its lessor towards payment of leases. Delay in delivery of Boeing 737MAX aircrafts further led to liquidity mismatch as the company was to receive healthy profits on sale and lease back transaction. SpiceJet had comfortable liquidity, with cash and bank balances of Rs 248 crore as on March 31, 2018.
 
SpiceJet has taken several steps in addressing its costs and liquidity issues. Ability to pass on the increased cost to consumers, timely infusion of cash from sale and lease back transactions and resultant impact on liquidity profile will remain key monitorables.
 
The ratings reflect SpiceJet's established market position and healthy operating metrics. These strengths are partially offset by weak liquidity, exposure to volatility in ATF prices, and foreign exchange (forex) rates, and susceptibility to intense competition.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the rating, CRISIL has combined the business and financial risk profiles of SpiceJet and its subsidiaries, including SpiceJet Merchandise Pvt Ltd and SpiceJet Technic Pvt Ltd. That is because all these companies, collectively referred to herein as SpiceJet, are in the same line of business and under a common management.
 
CRISIL has added the discounted value of future non-cancellable lease payments to arrive at adjusted debt, while such lease payments are added back to the operating profit to arrive at earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and rentals (EBITDAR). Debt protection metrics, including leverage and interest coverage ratios, are calculated using adjusted debt and EBITDAR.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Established market position: Market share in the domestic market has been steady at 12-13% since June 2015, while that in the international market has grown to 8.6% (among domestic carriers) in the quarter ended June 30, 2018, from 6.1% in the corresponding quarter of 2015. Market position is also supported by strong presence in routes connecting Tier-II and -III cities, which contribute over half the passenger revenue. Plans to significantly increase fleet size to around 120 aircraft over the medium term from the current 59 should further help maintain market position. Focus on Tier-II and -III cities and addition of new routes under the Ude Desh ka Aam Naagrik scheme should also support market position over the medium term.
 
* Healthy operating metrics: SpiceJet's passenger load factor (PLF) has been the highest in the Indian aviation industry (above 91%) in the 41 months through August 2018, driven by efficient fleet utilisation. Furthermore, the company has put in concerted efforts in building a strong brand by focussing on on-time performance and minimal cancellations. However, industry players are witnessing severe cost pressures due to high ATF prices and depreciation of Indian rupee. Ability to maintain PLFs while increasing passenger yields to partially balance the cost pressures will be crucial for continued high operational efficiency and hence remain a key monitorable.
 
Weaknesses
* Weak liquidity: Liquidity has deteriorated over the six months ended September 30, 2018. SpiceJet had unencumbered liquidity of Rs 248 crore at March 31, 2018, which has been largely utilised towards operations as industry faces significant cost pressures as well as for advances towards the new aircraft leases. Moreover, the company was to receive cash inflows from the delivery of new aircrafts from August 2018 which got delayed leading to liquidity mismatch. Hence, the company has requested one of its lessor to provide for a relief window of three months. CRISIL will closely monitor SpiceJet's liquidity and its impact on debt serviceability.
 
* Exposure to movement in ATF price, PLFs, and forex rates: ATF accounts for 35-40% of the total operating costs of industry players. Furthermore, ATF price is directly linked to global crude prices and therefore remains volatile. Moreover, industry players have limited capability to pass on the increase to passengers due to high competitive intensity and likely adverse impact on PLFs.  
 
Operations are also sensitive to forex rate fluctuation as lease rentals and maintenance costs, which account for 35-40% of the operating costs, are denominated in USD. Domestic ATF prices increased 10% while the Indian rupee depreciated 7.9% over the last three months. Due to high competitive intensity, players have not been to increase their yields to mitigate cost pressures leading to significant decline in operating margins. SpiceJet has taken several steps in addressing its costs and liquidity issues. Further, third quarter is a peak season for airlines and SpiceJet is expecting a significant improvement in the operating performance. Ability to increase yields and their likely impact on PLFs will be key monitorable.
 
* Susceptibility to intense competition: The domestic airline industry is highly competitive, underpinned by frequent entry of new players and significant fleet addition by existing ones. During fiscal 2015, the industry saw the launch of services by Vistara and Air Asia India followed by addition of new players such as Air Carnival, Air Costa, Air Pegasus, TruJet, and Zoom Air over the 12 months through March 2018. Furthermore, factoring in current fleet addition plans, industry fleet size is estimated to grow to around 1,500 aircraft by fiscal 2025 from the current 500. These factors potentially expose the industry to intense price competition and adversely impact PLFs.
Outlook: Negative

CRISIL believes SpiceJet's financial risk profile, especially liquidity is likely to remain stretched due to continued cost pressure.
 
Upside scenario
* Improvement in operating margin leading to sustained improvement in liquidity
* Sustained improvement in the capital structure
 
Downside scenario
* Continued pressure on profitability due to increase in ATF price, competitive intensity, reduction in PLFs, or forex rate fluctuations

About the Company

SpiceJet is currently promoted by Mr Ajay Singh who held above 60% in the company as on June 30, 2018. It is a low-cost carrier, and the fourth-largest airline in India by number of domestic passengers carried.
 
Set up as an air taxi provider in 1984, it diversified into providing domestic aviation services in 1993, and was renamed Modiluft Ltd in 1994.  The company got its current name in 2005 when the services were re-launched after being shut down in 1996. SpiceJet operated its first flight in May 2005. Mr Kalanidhi Maran acquired a controlling stake in SpiceJet in June 2010 through the Sun group; the stake was sold back to Mr Ajay Singh in January 2015. The airline operates a fleet of Boeing 737 and Bombardier Dash aircraft.
 
As of March 31, 2018, the company had a fleet of 58 aircraft, which connected 44 domestic and 7 international destinations.
 
For the quarter ended June 30, 2018, net loss was Rs 38 crore and operating revenue Rs 2,236 crore, against net profit of Rs 175 crore and operating revenue of Rs 1,870 crore for the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.

Key Financial Indicators
As on / for the period ended March 31   2018 2017
Operating revenue Rs crore 7,811 6,202
Profit after tax (PAT) Rs crore 557 427
PAT margin % 7.1 6.9
Adjusted debt/adjusted networth Times NM NM
Adjusted interest coverage^ Times 5.21 6.35
 NM - not meaningful
 ^ = (EBITDAR + Other Income) / (Financial Interest + Lease Equivalent Interest)

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size (Rs crore) Rating assigned with outlook
NA Term Loan NA NA 13-Mar-19 250 CRISIL BB-/Negative
NA Term Loan NA NA 21-May-20 75 CRISIL BB-/Negative
NA Packing credit in foreign currency NA NA NA 350 CRISIL A4
NA Letter of Credit^ NA NA NA 770 CRISIL A4
^Bank Guarantee is a sub limit
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2018 (History) 2017  2016  2015  Start of 2015
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  675.00  CRISIL BB-/Negative/ CRISIL A4  07-08-18  CRISIL BBB/Stable/ CRISIL A3+    --    --    --  -- 
        03-05-18  CRISIL BBB/Stable               
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  770.00  CRISIL A4  07-08-18  CRISIL A3+    --    --    --  -- 
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Letter of Credit^ 770 CRISIL A4 Letter of Credit^ 770 CRISIL A3+
Packing Credit in Foreign Currency 350 CRISIL A4 Packing Credit in Foreign Currency 350 CRISIL A3+
Term Loan 325 CRISIL BB-/Negative Term Loan 325 CRISIL BBB/Stable
Total 1445 -- Total 1445 --
^Bank Guarantee is a sub limit
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
CRISILs Approach to Recognising Default
The Rating Process
Understanding CRISILs Ratings and Rating Scales

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