Rating Rationale
August 01, 2019 | Mumbai
Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited
'CRISIL A/Stable' assigned to bank debt; CP reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.880 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL A/Stable (Assigned)
 
Rs.50 Crore Commercial Paper CRISIL A1 (Reaffirmed)
Rs.50 Crore Commercial Paper  CRISIL A1+(SO) (Withdrawn)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has assigned its 'CRISIL A/Stable' rating to the long-term bank facilities of Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited (TNPL).
 
CRISIL has also reaffirmed its rating of 'CRISIL A1' on the Rs 50 crore commercial paper programme (CP) of TNPL. Further, CRISIL has withdrawn its 'CRISIL A1+(SO)' rating on TNPL's Rs 50 crore CP programme, which was supported by an unconditional and irrevocable standby letter of credit (SBLC) extended by Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd (KMBL; 'CRISIL AAA/FAAA/Stable/CRISIL A1+'). This withdrawal is based on client's request and is in line with CRISIL's policy on withdrawal of ratings; there was no outstanding against this CP.
 
TNPL's operating performance improved in fiscal 2019 supported by ramp-up in production levels at both writing and printing paper (WPP) and multi-layer double coated paperboard (MCPB), following healthy demand for both products. Besides, firm paper prices and gradual softening of global hardwood prices (MCPB unit is largely dependent on imported pulp) in the second half of fiscal 2019, benefited operating margins. TNPL's revenues grew by 22% in fiscal 2019 to Rs.4083 crore (Rs.3337 crore in fiscal 2018), while operating margins improved to 16% from 12%.
 
TNPL is expected to sustain the performance improvement over the medium term as well. While revenues are expected to range close to Rs.4000 crore (company is already operating at peak utilization) supported mainly by high operating utilization and healthy realisations in WPP. In January 2019, the central Government imposed a three-year anti-dumping duty with a threshold price of $855 per tonne towards the import of uncoated copier paper from Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand. This, coupled with healthy demand and only moderate additional domestic supply, should support WPP realisations.
 
On the other hand, MCPB prices could moderate slightly, due to additional capacity coming into the market, and softer demand from the fast moving consumer goods segment (a major end-customer).   Nevertheless, the company's operating profitability is likely to improve further to 18-20% by fiscal 2022, post completion of pulp unit expansion at its Mondipatti (Tamil Nadu) unit, which will allow TNPL to significantly lower dependence on costly imported pulp for production of MCPB. .
 
The company is undertaking large capacity expansion at its MCPB facility for setting up a captive pulping unit and a WPP manufacturing unit. Total capital expenditure (capex) is about Rs 2520 crore and will be implemented in phased manner between fiscals 2020 and 2024. While the project will be 80% debt funded, expected improvement in margins and progressive large repayments, will be enable TNPL to sustain its leverage at less than 1.5 times over the medium term; debt to EBITDA ratio which was at 3.3 times in fiscal 2019, is also expected to gradually improve. Furthermore, CRISIL also believes that TNPL's strong refinancing capabilities and established relationship with lenders, will enable it to tide over any cash flow mismatches. 
 
The rating continues to reflect TNPL's leading position in the domestic WPP market, strong operating capabilities, product diversity with presence in both WPP and MCPB.
 
These strengths are partially offset by TNPL's moderate financial risk profile, reflected by improving though high gearing and modest debt protection ratios. Further, the company also has sizeable long-term debt obligations over the medium term, which may require slight refinancing. Also, the company's operating profitability is partially susceptible to volatility in imported pulp prices. Besides, the company is also exposed to project implementation risks.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
* Leading position in the domestic WPP market:
TNPL is the second largest player in the domestic WPP segment, with an installed capacity of 400,000 tonne per annum (tpa). Despite intense competition, the company has sustained its strong market position backed by its established brand, diversified product portfolio and customer base, robust distribution network and regular capacity expansions

* Strong operating capabilities resulting from integrated operations: TNPL's operating margins in WPP are among the highest in the industry owing to strong efficiencies arising out of backward integration, long-term supply tie-ups and captive power plant. Furthermore, operating from the country's largest single location paper plant gives TNPL significant economies of scale. Given the company's strong operating efficiencies and expected improvement in product mix, especially MCBP, overall operating profitability is expected to improve to 18-20% over the medium term.

* Expanded product portfolio, with presence in both WPP and MCBP: TNPL has presence in both WPP and MCBP which provides diversity to its revenue profile. TNPL's greenfield MCPB project has a capacity of 200,000 tpa and caters to diverse end-user segments - MCBP is used by industrial players for packaging consumer products, while WPP is used for making notebooks, textbooks, copier paper and diaries. TNPL has also leveraged on its existing dealer network and established a foothold in the MCPB segment. The MCPB unit has achieved cash breakeven in fiscal 2019. As the pulping unit is commissioned, profitability from the board unit  will increase and support  overall cash generation.

Weaknesses:
* Moderate financial risk profile, reflected by high (though gradually improving) gearing and moderate debt protection ratios:
TNPL's financial risk profile is marked by moderate gearing and debt protection metrics, even as net worth remains healthy at about Rs 1620 crore as on March 31, 2019. Debt funded capacity expansions in the past have resulted in moderate gearing; however, the ratio has improved to 1.2 times as on March 31, 2019 from 1.8 times as on March 31, 2016, while debt/EBITDA ratio too improved to 3.3 times from 4.4 times during the same period.

The proposed capex of Rs 2520 crore from fiscal 2020 is expected to be 80% debt funded. However expected improvement in margins and thus cash generation, and progressive sizeable debt repayments, will help mitigate the net debt addition due to the proposed capex. This will lead to moderate improvement in company's credit metrics over the medium term.

* High dependence on imported pulp for MCPB: As TNPL currently doesn't have adequate captive pulping capacity to cater to both its units, it imports pulp to meet a large portion of the raw material requirement in the MCPB unit. This exposes the company to volatility in the movement of global pulp prices, which were on an increasing trajectory till first half of fiscal 2019, before moderating thereafter. While TNPL is taking measures to address the same with the proposed captive pulping unit expected to be commissioned by fiscal 2022, profitability in this segment will remain partially susceptible to imported pulp prices and forex movements till such time. 

* Exposure to risks related to project implementation and stabilization: The company is undertaking a large capex of Rs 2,520 Cr. Phase I will involve a capex of Rs 1100 crore towards expansion of its pulp capacity by 140,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) and will be implemented between fiscal 2020 and 2022. Capex in phase II will be Rs 1420 crore towards setting up new WPP capacity of 165,000 tpa with additional captive pulp capacity and will be implemented between fiscals 2022 and 2024 (post commencement of phase I).  This large project in turn exposes TNPL to project-related risks over the medium term; pre-commissioning risks will include time or cost overruns, while post commissioning risks will include stabilization and ramp up in operations.

These risks however are partly offset by the company's prudent execution plan to phase out project spend and its spaced-out debt obligations, with plans to take long maturity loans. Nevertheless, any significant delays in project implementation and stabilization can impact ability to generate cash flows and will remain a key rating sensitivity factor.
Liquidity

TNPL's long term debt repayment obligations are sizeable estimated at around Rs 450-470 crore annually over fiscals 2020 and 2021. Internal accruals will be largely adequate to service these obligations. Further, CRISIL derives comfort from TNPL's strong refinancing capabilities and established relationship with lenders, which will enable it to arrange for financing to bridge any shortfalls in accruals for servicing debt obligations, as has been amply demonstrated in the past. Besides, these loans have been raised at extremely competitive interest rates. TNPL also has headroom in its fund based working capital limits, which have been utilized on average at about 66% over the past 12 months ended April 2019.

Outlook: Stable

CRISIL believes that TNPL's credit profile will be benefit from the healthy demand outlook for WPP and MCPB, and reducing imported pulp prices, leading to improvement in cash generation. Further, its currently moderate financial risk profile will gradually improve over the medium term, supported by better cash generation, and progressive debt repayment, which will help it absorb impact of large proposed capex.

Upside scenario:
* Better than expected cash generation due to stronger business performance
* Improvement in credit metrics, for instance, debt to EBITDA correcting to less than 2.5 times
* Smooth implementation of project
 
Downside scenario:
* Lower than expected profitability and accruals
* Delays in project implementation leading to cost overruns and increase in leverage
* Further moderation in credit metrics, debt to EBITDA deteriorating to more than 3.75 times

About the Company

TNPL was promoted by the Government of Tamil Nadu (GoTN) and the Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI) in 1979 to manufacture newsprint and WPP using bagasse as the principal fibre source. GoTN is currently the single largest shareholder with a stake of 35.3% stake.
 
TNPL has a production capacity of 400,000 tpa at its plant at Pugalur in Kagithapuram (TN), which is the largest single location paper plant in India. The company possesses manufacturing capability for both newsprint and WPP; however, because of better cost economics, TNPL has been manufacturing only WPP. The Pugalur plant is backward integrated, and has a pulp production capacity of 880 tonnes per day (tpd). Furthermore, TNPL has a 300-tpd de-inking pulp plant to produce pulp from waste paper. Also, the residue generated from the Pugalur plant is combined with limestone to produce cement at its 900-tpd cement plant. The company also has captive power facilities of 103.62 megawatts (MW), of which about 7 MW is available to be sold to the state grid after meeting its entire in-house requirement. Besides, the company also has wind farms with a capacity of 35.5 MW (as on March 31, 2016) in Tirunelveli district of TN. TNPL has also recently implemented a 200,000-tpa greenfield project in the value-added coated board segment. This project, established at Mondipatti in Trichy, sources a part of its pulping requirements from the Pugalur unit.

Key Financial Indicators
Particulars Unit 2019 2018
Revenue Rs. Cr. 4,083 3,156
Profit After Tax (PAT) Rs. Cr. 94 -42
PAT Margins % 2.3 -1.3
Adjusted Debt/ Adjusted Net worth Times 1.2 1.5
Interest coverage Times 3.0 1.7

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of Instrument Date of Allotment Coupon Rate (%) Maturity Date Issue Size (Rs. Cr.) Rating Assigned with Outlook
NA Commercial Paper NA NA 7-365 days 50.0 CRISIL A1
NA Commercial Paper NA NA 7-90 days 50.0 Withdrawn
NA Proposed Long Term Loan NA NA NA 880.0 CRISIL A/Stable
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2019 (History) 2018  2017  2016  Start of 2016
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Commercial Paper  ST  50.00  CRISIL A1      31-08-18  CRISIL A1| CRISIL A1+(SO)  23-08-17  CRISIL A1| CRISIL A1+(SO)  04-11-16  CRISIL A1| CRISIL A1+(SO)  -- 
                04-01-17  CRISIL A1| CRISIL A1+(SO)  30-09-16  CRISIL A1+(SO)   
                    24-06-16  CRISIL A1+(SO)   
                    25-05-16  Provisional CRISIL A1+(SO)   
Short Term Debt (Including Commercial Paper)  ST    --    --    --    --  25-05-16  Withdrawn  CRISIL A1 
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  880.00  CRISIL A/Stable    --    --    --    --  -- 
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
 
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Proposed Long Term Bank Loan Facility 880 CRISIL A/Stable -- 0 --
Total 880 -- Total 0 --
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for Paper Industry
CRISILs Criteria for rating short term debt

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