Rating Rationale
June 02, 2020 | Mumbai
Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited
Rating Reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.880 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL A/Stable (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has reaffirmed its 'CRISIL A/Stable' rating on the long-term bank facilities of Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited (TNPL).
 
Despite lower revenues due to a weak fourth quarter and tepid demand for writing and printing paper (WPP) and multi layered coated paper board (MCPB), TNPL's operating profits were almost in line with expectations, with operating profitability in fact improving in fiscal 2020. This was as the company benefited from lower raw material costs, especially imported wood pulp (key raw material for MCPB) prices. Consequently, while TNPL's revenues are estimated to decline by about 15% in fiscal 2020 compared to the previous fiscal, the operating margins are better at an estimated 18% (14% in fiscal 2019).
 
However, with COVID-19 outbreak severely impacting retail demand for both WPP and MCPB and current sluggish economic outlook, TNPL's performance is expected to moderate in fiscal 2021. Besides, the company had also temporarily shut down its operations in both the plants for three weeks in March ' April 2020, to comply with the requirements imposed by the nationwide lockdown. While operations have subsequently resumed in both the units with adequate precautionary measures; capacity utilization in both units are at below 70%, lower than the normal levels. Further, with demand and prices for both WPP and MCPB expected to remain muted in the near term, TNPL's performance is also expected to be impacted in the first six months of fiscal 2021, and gradually recover thereafter. CRISIL expects the company's revenues to decline by ~20% to less than Rs 3,000 Cr for fiscal 2021, before rebounding in fiscal 2022. Operating margins are also expected to moderate to around 15-16% in fiscal 2021, before recovering back to the historical levels of 19-21% from next fiscal.
 
Furthermore, the company is undertaking large capacity expansion at its MCPB facility for setting up a captive pulping unit and a WPP manufacturing unit. Total capital expenditure (capex) is about Rs 2520 crore and is being implemented in phased manner between fiscals 2020 and 2024. While the project is 80% debt funded, progressive large repayments of existing debt will enable TNPL to sustain its leverage at less than 1.5 times over the medium term. Furthermore, CRISIL also believes that TNPL's strong refinancing capabilities and established relationship with lenders, will enable it to tide over any cash flow mismatches. 
 
The rating continues to reflect TNPL's leading position in the domestic WPP market, strong operating capabilities, product diversity with presence in both WPP and MCPB. These strengths are partially offset by TNPL's moderate financial risk profile, as reflected in modest debt protection ratios. Further, the company also has sizeable long-term debt obligations over the medium term, which may require part refinancing. Also, the company's operating profitability is partially susceptible to volatility in imported pulp prices. Besides, the company is also exposed to project implementation risks.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
* Leading position in the domestic WPP market: TNPL is the second largest player in the domestic WPP segment, with an installed capacity of 400,000 tonne per annum (tpa). Despite intense competition, the company has sustained its strong market position backed by its established brand, diversified product portfolio and customer base, robust distribution network and regular capacity expansions
 
* Strong operating capabilities resulting from integrated operations: TNPL's operating margins in WPP are among the highest in the industry owing to strong efficiencies arising out of backward integration, long-term supply tie-ups and captive power plant. Furthermore, operating from the country's largest single location paper plant gives TNPL significant economies of scale.  
 
* Expanded product portfolio, with presence in both WPP and MCPB: TNPL has presence in both WPP and MCPB which provides diversity to its revenue profile. TNPL's greenfield MCPB plant has a capacity of 200,000 tpa and caters to diverse end-user segments - MCPB is used by industrial players for packaging consumer products, while WPP is used for making notebooks, textbooks, copier paper and diaries. TNPL has also leveraged on its existing dealer network and established a foothold in the MCPB segment. The MCPB unit has achieved cash breakeven in fiscal 2019. As the pulping unit is commissioned by fiscal 2022, profitability from the board unit will increase and support overall cash generation.
 
Weaknesses:
* Moderate financial risk profile, reflected by moderate leverage and debt protection ratios: TNPL's financial risk profile is marked by moderate gearing and debt protection metrics, even as net worth remains healthy at about Rs 1800 crore estimated as on March 31, 2020. Debt funded capacity expansions in the past have resulted in moderate gearing; however, the ratio has improved to 1.1 times estimated as on March 31, 2020 from a peak of 1.8 times as on March 31, 2016, while debt/EBITDA ratio too improved to 3 times from 4.4 times during the same period.
 
The ongoing capex of Rs 2520 crore from fiscal 2020 is ~80% debt funded. However, progressive sizeable debt repayments (of about Rs 490 crore in fiscal 2021), will help mitigate the net debt addition due to the proposed capex. This coupled with gradual improvement in cash accruals from fiscal 2022, will lead to moderate improvement in company's credit metrics over the medium term.
 
* High dependence on imported pulp for MCPB: As TNPL currently doesn't have adequate captive pulping capacity to cater to both its units, it imports pulp to meet a large portion of the raw material requirement in the MCPB unit. This exposes the company to volatility in the movement of global pulp prices, which were on an increasing trajectory till first half of fiscal 2019, before moderating thereafter. While TNPL is taking measures to address the same with the proposed captive pulping unit expected to be commissioned by fiscal 2022, profitability in this segment will remain partially susceptible to imported pulp prices and forex movements till such time. 
 
* Exposure to risks related to project implementation and stabilization: The company is undertaking a large capex of Rs 2,520 Cr. Phase I involves a capex of Rs 1100 crore towards expansion of its pulp capacity by 140,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) and is being implemented between fiscal 2020 and 2022. Capex in phase II will be Rs 1420 crore towards setting up new WPP capacity of 165,000 tpa with additional captive pulp capacity and will be implemented between fiscals 2022 and 2024 (post commencement of phase I).  This large project in turn exposes TNPL to project-related risks over the medium term; pre-commissioning risks will include time or cost overruns, while post commissioning risks will include stabilization and ramp up in operations.
 
These risks however are partly offset by the company's prudent execution plan to phase out project spend and its spaced-out debt obligations, with plans to take long maturity loans.
 
While COVID-19 outbreak has led to temporary delays in project implementation in April-May 2020, the same is not expected to significantly affect overall progress of the project and commissioning of phase I is still expected by October 2021. Nevertheless, any significant delays in project implementation and stabilization can impact ability to generate cash flows and will remain a key rating sensitivity factor.
Liquidity Adequate

TNPL's liquidity is adequate driven largely by its strong financial flexibility and refinancing capabilities. TNPL's long term debt repayment obligations are sizeable estimated at ~Rs 490 crore in fiscal 2021 and ~Rs 400 crore in fiscal 2022. Internal accruals may be insufficient to service the obligations for fiscal 2021, which in turn will lead to part dependence on refinancing or freeing funds by reducing the working capital cycle. However, refinancing risk is not expected to be significant given the company's strong franchise with lenders and ability to raise General Corporate Loans (GCL) to bridge any shortfalls in accruals for servicing debt obligations, as has been amply demonstrated in the past. Besides, these GCLs have been raised at extremely competitive interest rates. TNPL also has headroom in its fund based working capital limits, which have been utilized on average at about 65-70% over the past 12 months ended April 2020.
 
Repayment obligations on the new project debt are expected to have a two-year moratorium, enabling gradual ramp up of utilizations levels.

Outlook: Stable

CRISIL believes that TNPL's credit profile will remain stable over the medium term driven by its established market position in its product segments and strong operating efficiencies. While COVID-19 led disruptions may cause temporary impact, performance is expected to recover over the medium term. Further, its currently moderate financial risk profile will gradually improve over the medium term, supported by progressive debt repayment, which will help it absorb impact of large proposed capex.

Rating Sensitivity factors
Upward factors:

* Better than expected cash generation due to stronger business performance
* Improvement in credit metrics, for instance, debt to EBITDA correcting to less than 2.5 times, and gearing to less than 1 time
* Smooth implementation of project
 
Downward factors:
* Lower than expected profitability and accruals
* Delays in project implementation leading to cost overruns and increase in leverage
* Moderation in credit metrics; debt to EBITDA deteriorating to more than 3.75 times and gearing to over 2 times on sustained basis

About the Company

TNPL was promoted by the Government of Tamil Nadu (GoTN) and the Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI) in 1979 to manufacture newsprint and WPP using bagasse as the principal fibre source. GoTN is currently the single largest shareholder with a stake of 35.3% stake.
 
TNPL has a production capacity of 400,000 tpa at its plant at Pugalur in Kagithapuram (TN), which is the largest single location paper plant in India. The company possesses manufacturing capability for both newsprint and WPP; however, because of better cost economics, TNPL has been manufacturing only WPP. The Pugalur plant is backward integrated, and has a pulp production capacity of 880 tonnes per day (tpd). Furthermore, TNPL has a 300-tpd de-inking pulp plant to produce pulp from waste paper. Also, the residue generated from the Pugalur plant is combined with limestone to produce cement at its 900-tpd cement plant. The company also has captive power facilities of 103.62 megawatts (MW), of which about 7 MW is available to be sold to the state grid after meeting its entire in-house requirement. Besides, the company also has wind farms with a capacity of 35.5 MW (as on March 31, 2016) in Tirunelveli district of TN. TNPL has also established a 200,000-tpa greenfield capacity in the value-added coated board segment. This plant, established at Mondipatti in Trichy, sources a part of its pulping requirements from the Pugalur unit.
 
For the first nine months of fiscal 2020, the company reported net profit of Rs 128 Cr on total revenues of Rs 2570 Cr, as compared to net profit of Rs 81 Cr on revenues of Rs 3034 Cr during the previous corresponding period.

Key Financial Indicators
Particulars Unit 2019 2018
Revenue Rs. Cr. 4,083 3,156
Profit After Tax (PAT) Rs. Cr. 94 -42
PAT Margins % 2.3 -1.3
Adjusted Debt/ Adjusted Net worth Times 1.2 1.5
Interest coverage Times 3.0 1.7

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of Instrument Date of Allotment Coupon Rate (%) Maturity Date Issue Size (Rs. Cr.) Rating Assigned with Outlook
NA Proposed Long Term Bank Loan Facility NA NA NA 880.0 CRISIL A/Stable
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2020 (History) 2019  2018  2017  Start of 2017
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Commercial Paper  ST    --    --  08-08-19  Withdrawal  31-08-18  CRISIL A1| CRISIL A1+(SO)  23-08-17  CRISIL A1| CRISIL A1+(SO)  CRISIL A1| CRISIL A1+(SO) 
            01-08-19  CRISIL A1      04-01-17  CRISIL A1| CRISIL A1+(SO)   
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  880.00  CRISIL A/Stable      08-08-19  CRISIL A/Stable    --    --  -- 
            01-08-19  CRISIL A/Stable           
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Proposed Long Term Bank Loan Facility 880 CRISIL A/Stable Proposed Long Term Bank Loan Facility 880 CRISIL A/Stable
Total 880 -- Total 880 --
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for Paper Industry
CRISILs Criteria for rating short term debt

For further information contact:
Media Relations
Analytical Contacts
Customer Service Helpdesk
Saman Khan
Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
D: +91 22 3342 3895
B: +91 22 3342 3000
saman.khan@crisil.com

Naireen Ahmed
Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
D: +91 22 3342 1818
B: +91 22 3342 3000
naireen.ahmed@crisil.com

Anuj Sethi
Senior Director - CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Limited
B:+91 44 6656 3100
anuj.sethi@crisil.com


Sameer Charania
Director - CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Limited
D:+91 22 4097 8025
sameer.charania@crisil.com


Rehan Ahmed
Rating Analyst - CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Limited
D:+91 44 6656 3140
Rehan.Ahmed@crisil.com
Timings: 10.00 am to 7.00 pm
Toll free Number:1800 267 1301

For a copy of Rationales / Rating Reports:
CRISILratingdesk@crisil.com
 
For Analytical queries:
ratingsinvestordesk@crisil.com


 

Note for Media:
This rating rationale is transmitted to you for the sole purpose of dissemination through your newspaper / magazine / agency. The rating rationale may be used by you in full or in part without changing the meaning or context thereof but with due credit to CRISIL. However, CRISIL alone has the sole right of distribution (whether directly or indirectly) of its rationales for consideration or otherwise through any media including websites, portals etc.


About CRISIL Limited

CRISIL is a leading agile and innovative, global analytics company driven by its mission of making markets function better. We are India’s foremost provider of ratings, data, research, analytics and solutions. A strong track record of growth, culture of innovation and global footprint sets us apart. We have delivered independent opinions, actionable insights, and efficient solutions to over 1,00,000 customers.
 
We are majority owned by S&P Global Inc., a leading provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide.
 
For more information, visit www.crisil.com 


Connect with us: TWITTER | LINKEDIN | YOUTUBE | FACEBOOK

About CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Ratings is part of CRISIL Limited (“CRISIL”). We pioneered the concept of credit rating in India in 1987. CRISIL is registered in India as a credit rating agency with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”). With a tradition of independence, analytical rigour and innovation, CRISIL sets the standards in the credit rating business. We rate the entire range of debt instruments, such as, bank loans, certificates of deposit, commercial paper, non-convertible / convertible / partially convertible bonds and debentures, perpetual bonds, bank hybrid capital instruments, asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities, partial guarantees and other structured debt instruments. We have rated over 24,500 large and mid-scale corporates and financial institutions. CRISIL has also instituted several innovations in India in the rating business, including rating municipal bonds, partially guaranteed instruments and microfinance institutions. We also pioneered a globally unique rating service for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and significantly extended the accessibility to rating services to a wider market. Over 1,10,000 MSMEs have been rated by us.


CRISIL PRIVACY
 
CRISIL respects your privacy. We may use your contact information, such as your name, address, and email id to fulfil your request and service your account and to provide you with additional information from CRISIL.For further information on CRISIL’s privacy policy please visit www.crisil.com.


DISCLAIMER

This disclaimer forms part of and applies to each credit rating report and/or credit rating rationale that we provide (each a “Report”). For the avoidance of doubt, the term “Report” includes the information, ratings and other content forming part of the Report. The Report is intended for the jurisdiction of India only. This Report does not constitute an offer of services. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, nothing in the Report is to be construed as CRISIL providing or intending to provide any services in jurisdictions where CRISIL does not have the necessary licenses and/or registration to carry out its business activities referred to above. Access or use of this Report does not create a client relationship between CRISIL and the user.

We are not aware that any user intends to rely on the Report or of the manner in which a user intends to use the Report. In preparing our Report we have not taken into consideration the objectives or particular needs of any particular user. It is made abundantly clear that the Report is not intended to and does not constitute an investment advice. The Report is not an offer to sell or an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment in any securities, instruments, facilities or solicitation of any kind or otherwise enter into any deal or transaction with the entity to which the Report pertains. The Report should not be the sole or primary basis for any investment decision within the meaning of any law or regulation (including the laws and regulations applicable in the US).

Ratings from CRISIL Rating are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities / instruments or to make any investment decisions. Any opinions expressed here are in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only current as of the stated date of their issue. CRISIL assumes no obligation to update its opinions following publication in any form or format although CRISIL may disseminate its opinions and analysis. CRISIL rating contained in the Report is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment or other business decisions. The recipients of the Report should rely on their own judgment and take their own professional advice before acting on the Report in any way.CRISIL or its associates may have other commercial transactions with the company/entity.

Neither CRISIL nor its affiliates, third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively, “CRISIL Parties”) guarantee the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the Report, and no CRISIL Party shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of any part of the Report. EACH CRISIL PARTY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall any CRISIL Party be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of any part of the Report even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

CRISIL Ratings may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of the instruments, facilities, securities or from obligors. CRISIL’s public ratings and analysis as are required to be disclosed under the regulations of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (and other applicable regulations, if any) are made available on its web sites, www.crisil.com (free of charge). Reports with more detail and additional information may be available for subscription at a fee – more details about CRISIL ratings are available here: www.crisilratings.com.

CRISIL and its affiliates do not act as a fiduciary. While CRISIL has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, CRISIL does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives and / or relies in its Reports. CRISIL keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of the respective activity. As a result, certain business units of CRISIL may have information that is not available to other CRISIL business units. CRISIL has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. CRISIL has in place a ratings code of conduct and policies for analytical firewalls and for managing conflict of interest. For details please refer to: https://www.crisil.com/en/home/our-businesses/ratings/regulatory-disclosures/highlighted-policies.html

CRISIL’s rating criteria are generally available without charge to the public on the CRISIL public web site, www.crisil.com. For latest rating information on any instrument of any company rated by CRISIL you may contact CRISIL RATING DESK at CRISILratingdesk@crisil.com, or at (0091) 1800 267 1301.

This Report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or in any form without a prior written consent of CRISIL.

All rights reserved @ CRISIL