Rating Rationale
April 17, 2019 | Mumbai
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited
Rating upgraded to 'CRISIL BB/Stable'
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.312 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL BB/Stable (Upgraded from 'CRISIL BB-/Stable')
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has upgraded its rating on the long-term bank facilities of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (Ugar Sugar) to 'CRISIL BB/Stable' from 'CRISIL BB-/Stable'.
 
The upgrade reflects CRISIL's belief that Ugar Sugar's liquidity will improve over the medium term, while business performance also posts recovery. The company has already repaid a large portion of the term loans in fiscal 2019 and has only Rs 10 Cr long term obligations outstanding which is expected to be repaid by fiscal 2020 from internal accruals. While gearing is still high at an estimated 7 times in fiscal 2019, net cash accruals to total debt (NCATD) and interest coverage ratios are estimated to improve to an estimated 0.1 times and 2 times respectively in fiscal 2019 from -0.1 times and -0.6 times in fiscal 2018. Besides, the business risk profile is also expected to benefit from various government initiatives like minimum support price (MSP) for sugar at Rs 31 per kg, subsidies for sugar exports, etc. Further steady contributions from cogeneration and distillery will support profitability and overall cash flows. Ugar Sugar's operating profitability is estimated to improve to 8% in fiscal 2019 from -3% in fiscal 2018 and sustain the same over the medium term.
 
The company is also planning to expand ethanol capacities by availing the interest subvention scheme announced by the Government in fiscal 2019. Capital spend for the proposed expansion is likely to be around Rs 30-40 Cr each in fiscals 2020 and 2021 and will be part debt-funded. Despite this, the debt protection metrics are expected to sustain. Further, cash accruals are also expected to be higher at over Rs 40 Cr annually, which will be adequate to meet the repayment obligations on existing debt as well as new loans proposed for upcoming ethanol capacity.
 
The rating continues to reflect extensive experience of the promoters in the sugar industry and the integrated nature of operations. This is partly offset by susceptibility to cyclicality and regulatory changes in the sugar industry, and moderate financial risk profile.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Extensive experience of the promoters in the sugar industry:
The management has been engaged in the sugar business for several decades; the first unit was set up in in 1939, with capacity of 500 Tonnes Crushed per Day (TCD). Since then, the company has survived several downturns and has grown its scale to 15,000 TCD. This includes a fully integrated distillery capacity of 75 KLPD and cogeneration capacity of 59.5 MW as of March 2019.
 
* Integrated nature of operations:
CRISIL believes the integrated nature of operations partially offsets volatility in profitability of the sugar division. The distillery segment is likely to sustain healthy profitability over the medium term, backed by healthy sugarcane production and stable price of molasses. In the cogeneration segment, the company has signed power purchase agreements with few distribution companies in Karnataka in fiscal 2018. The per unit realisation rates for power exported will range from Rs 4.5 to Rs 5 in fiscal 2020, as compared to around Rs 4 per unit estimated in fiscal 2019 and be eligible for annual price escalations. 
 
Weaknesses
* Susceptibility to regulatory changes and volatile sugar prices:
Given the inherent cyclicality in the sugar industry, domestic players remain vulnerable to volatile sugar prices, which are driven by the production levels. Any change in sugar prices can adversely impact profitability of millers. The government also regulates the domestic demand-supply situation through its policies on sugar and cane prices, trade, and subsidies.
 
Following a bumper sugar crop in sugar season (SS)2017-18 (October 1 to September 30) and in anticipation of another good season in 2018-19, sugar prices declined to below Rs.30/kg in March 2018, from over Rs.40/kg a year ago, while cane prices too have been increased in keeping with interests of farmers. To lower the impact on sugar mills and stabilize prices, the Government rolled out a series of initiatives such as increasing import duty on raw and white sugar, removing export duty and providing subsidies for sugar exports, creation of buffer stock to absorb excess supply from the market, fixing minimum support price for sugar at Rs 31/ kg till SS 2018-19 (earlier Rs.29/ kg) and soft loans for sugar mills to expand ethanol capacities.
 
Though sugar production across the country is expected to reduce in SS 2018-19, surplus inventory from the earlier season is likely to prevent a sharp improvement in sugar realisations. Cane prices though are expected to be hiked due to farmers' stress across several sugar growing states, rendering losses for sugar mills even in fiscal 2020. Government interventions will remain a driver for profitability of sugar mills and continue as a key rating sensitivity factor.
 
* Moderate financial risk profile:
Ugar Sugar's financial risk profile is moderate marked by large debt of Rs 380 crore, against networth of about Rs 55 crore estimated as on March 31, 2019. Debt protection metrics however, are expected to benefit over the medium term from the expected improvement in cash generation even as debt levels remain moderately high. NCATD and interest coverage ratios are estimated to improve to 0.1 times and 2 times respectively in fiscal 2019 from -0.1 times and -0.6 times in fiscal 2018 and is likely to sustain over the medium term. However, gearing, estimated at over 7 times in fiscal 2019, is expected to improve only gradually over the medium term.
Liquidity

The company has repayment obligations of around Rs 10 Cr in fiscal 2020 and is expected to be completely met from internal accruals of over Rs 40 Cr per annum. Repayments for the new term loans (for expanding ethanol capacities) are also expected to commence towards the end of fiscal 2021 and is likely to be spaced out.  However, bank lines of Rs 428 crore have been utilized at an average of about 90% in fiscal 2019 owing to higher inventory holdings. Cash and equivalents are also not expected to be significant. CRISIL draws comfort from the expected enhancement in bank limits and funding support available from the promoters.

Outlook: Stable

CRISIL believes Ugar Sugar's business risk profile will improve further over the medium term benefitting from government's continued support for the sugar industry, healthy sugar recovery rates and steady contributions from distillery and cogeneration divisions. The financial risk profile, however, is expected to remain moderate marked by leveraged balance sheet. The outlook may be revised to 'Positive' if company strengthens the capital structure significantly, while sustaining improved operating performance. The outlook maybe revised to 'Negative' in case of weaker than expected cash generation or steep increase in debt leading to moderation in credit metrics and liquidity or a change in the management stance towards timely support.

About the Company

Established in 1939, Ugar Sugar is one of India's oldest sugar mills. The company has a fully integrated set-up with crushing capacity of 12,500 TCD, a 44-MW power plant, and 75-klpd distillery in Ugarkhurd, Karnataka. It also has a 2500-TCD capacity and 15.5-MW power plant in Jewargi, Karnataka.

Key Financial Indicators
Particulars Unit 2018 2017
Revenue Rs crore 801.9 761.7
Profit After Tax (PAT) Rs Crore (68.2) 26.0
PAT Margin % NA 3.4%
Adjusted debt/adjusted networth Times 8.3 3.2
Interest coverage Times (0.6) 2.1

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of Instrument Date of Allotment Coupon Rate (%) Maturity Date Issue Size (Rs.Cr) Rating Assigned with Outlook
NA Cash Credit NA NA NA 234.0 CRISIL BB/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Jun-2020 14.0 CRISIL BB/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Mar-2019 19.0 CRISIL BB/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Sept-2019 19.0 CRISIL BB/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Mar-2019 8.0 CRISIL BB/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Aug-2019 8.0 CRISIL BB/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Mar-2019 5.0 CRISIL BB/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Sept-2019 5.0 CRISIL BB/Stable
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2019 (History) 2018  2017  2016  Start of 2016
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  312.00  CRISIL BB/Stable      27-06-18  CRISIL BB-/Stable  30-03-17  CRISIL BB/Stable      CRISIL BB-/Stable 
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Cash Credit 234 CRISIL BB/Stable Cash Credit 234 CRISIL BB-/Stable
Term Loan 78 CRISIL BB/Stable Term Loan 78 CRISIL BB-/Stable
Total 312 -- Total 312 --
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for Sugar Industry

For further information contact:
Media Relations
Analytical Contacts
Customer Service Helpdesk
Saman Khan
Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
D: +91 22 3342 3895
B: +91 22 3342 3000
saman.khan@crisil.com

Naireen Ahmed
Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
D: +91 22 3342 1818
B: +91 22 3342 3000
naireen.ahmed@crisil.com

Vinay Rajani
Media Relations
CRISIL Limited
D: +91 22 3342 1835
M: +91 91 676 42913
B: +91 22 3342 3000
vinay.rajani@ext-crisil.com

Anuj Sethi
Senior Director - CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Limited
B:+91 44 6656 3100
anuj.sethi@crisil.com


Sameer Charania
Director - CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Limited
D:+91 22 4097 8025
sameer.charania@crisil.com


Sidhaarth MS
Manager - CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Limited
D:+91 44 6656 3138
Sidhaarth.MS@crisil.com
Timings: 10.00 am to 7.00 pm
Toll free Number:1800 267 1301

For a copy of Rationales / Rating Reports:
CRISILratingdesk@crisil.com
 
For Analytical queries:
ratingsinvestordesk@crisil.com


 

Note for Media:
This rating rationale is transmitted to you for the sole purpose of dissemination through your newspaper / magazine / agency. The rating rationale may be used by you in full or in part without changing the meaning or context thereof but with due credit to CRISIL. However, CRISIL alone has the sole right of distribution (whether directly or indirectly) of its rationales for consideration or otherwise through any media including websites, portals etc.


About CRISIL Limited

CRISIL is a leading agile and innovative, global analytics company driven by its mission of making markets function better. We are India’s foremost provider of ratings, data, research, analytics and solutions. A strong track record of growth, culture of innovation and global footprint sets us apart. We have delivered independent opinions, actionable insights, and efficient solutions to over 1,00,000 customers.
 
We are majority owned by S&P Global Inc., a leading provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide.
 
For more information, visit www.crisil.com 


Connect with us: TWITTER | LINKEDIN | YOUTUBE | FACEBOOK

About CRISIL Ratings
CRISIL Ratings is part of CRISIL Limited (“CRISIL”). We pioneered the concept of credit rating in India in 1987. CRISIL is registered in India as a credit rating agency with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”). With a tradition of independence, analytical rigour and innovation, CRISIL sets the standards in the credit rating business. We rate the entire range of debt instruments, such as, bank loans, certificates of deposit, commercial paper, non-convertible / convertible / partially convertible bonds and debentures, perpetual bonds, bank hybrid capital instruments, asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities, partial guarantees and other structured debt instruments. We have rated over 24,500 large and mid-scale corporates and financial institutions. CRISIL has also instituted several innovations in India in the rating business, including rating municipal bonds, partially guaranteed instruments and microfinance institutions. We also pioneered a globally unique rating service for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) and significantly extended the accessibility to rating services to a wider market. Over 1,10,000 MSMEs have been rated by us.


CRISIL PRIVACY
 
CRISIL respects your privacy. We may use your contact information, such as your name, address, and email id to fulfil your request and service your account and to provide you with additional information from CRISIL.For further information on CRISIL’s privacy policy please visit www.crisil.com.


DISCLAIMER

This disclaimer forms part of and applies to each credit rating report and/or credit rating rationale that we provide (each a “Report”). For the avoidance of doubt, the term “Report” includes the information, ratings and other content forming part of the Report. The Report is intended for the jurisdiction of India only. This Report does not constitute an offer of services. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, nothing in the Report is to be construed as CRISIL providing or intending to provide any services in jurisdictions where CRISIL does not have the necessary licenses and/or registration to carry out its business activities referred to above. Access or use of this Report does not create a client relationship between CRISIL and the user.

We are not aware that any user intends to rely on the Report or of the manner in which a user intends to use the Report. In preparing our Report we have not taken into consideration the objectives or particular needs of any particular user. It is made abundantly clear that the Report is not intended to and does not constitute an investment advice. The Report is not an offer to sell or an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment in any securities, instruments, facilities or solicitation of any kind or otherwise enter into any deal or transaction with the entity to which the Report pertains. The Report should not be the sole or primary basis for any investment decision within the meaning of any law or regulation (including the laws and regulations applicable in the US).

Ratings from CRISIL Rating are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities / instruments or to make any investment decisions. Any opinions expressed here are in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only current as of the stated date of their issue. CRISIL assumes no obligation to update its opinions following publication in any form or format although CRISIL may disseminate its opinions and analysis. CRISIL rating contained in the Report is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment or other business decisions. The recipients of the Report should rely on their own judgment and take their own professional advice before acting on the Report in any way.CRISIL or its associates may have other commercial transactions with the company/entity.

Neither CRISIL nor its affiliates, third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively, “CRISIL Parties”) guarantee the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of the Report, and no CRISIL Party shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions therein, regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of any part of the Report. EACH CRISIL PARTY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, SUITABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall any CRISIL Party be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of any part of the Report even if advised of the possibility of such damages.

CRISIL Ratings may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of the instruments, facilities, securities or from obligors. CRISIL’s public ratings and analysis as are required to be disclosed under the regulations of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (and other applicable regulations, if any) are made available on its web sites, www.crisil.com (free of charge). Reports with more detail and additional information may be available for subscription at a fee – more details about CRISIL ratings are available here: www.crisilratings.com.

CRISIL and its affiliates do not act as a fiduciary. While CRISIL has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, CRISIL does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives and / or relies in its Reports. CRISIL keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of the respective activity. As a result, certain business units of CRISIL may have information that is not available to other CRISIL business units. CRISIL has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. CRISIL has in place a ratings code of conduct and policies for analytical firewalls and for managing conflict of interest. For details please refer to: https://www.crisil.com/en/home/our-businesses/ratings/regulatory-disclosures/highlighted-policies.html

CRISIL’s rating criteria are generally available without charge to the public on the CRISIL public web site, www.crisil.com. For latest rating information on any instrument of any company rated by CRISIL you may contact CRISIL RATING DESK at CRISILratingdesk@crisil.com, or at (0091) 1800 267 1301.

This Report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or in any form without a prior written consent of CRISIL.

All rights reserved @ CRISIL