Rating Rationale
June 27, 2018 | Mumbai
The Ugar Sugar Works Limited
Rating downgraded to 'CRISIL BB-/Stable'
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.312 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL BB-/Stable (Downgraded from 'CRISIL BB/Stable')
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has downgraded its rating on the long-term bank facilities of The Ugar Sugar Works Limited (Ugar Sugar) to 'CRISIL BB-/Stable' from 'CRISIL BB/Stable'.

The downgrade reflects expectation of low sugar prices, and continued pressure on profitability and debt protection metrics. The domestic sugar industry saw bumper production of 31 MT estimated for sugar season (SS) 2017-18 (October 2017 to September 2018), surpassing domestic consumption of 26.3 MT. Excess domestic supply and suppressed international prices dragged down sugar prices by about 27%. Based on current sugarcane acreage, production may surpass consumption in SS 2018-19, contributing further to the supply glut.

To contain the downward pressure on prices, the central government announced a series of measures between February and June 2018. These include the minimum ex-mill procurement price of Rs 29 per kg of sugar, buffer stock of 3MT and minimum indicative export quantity of 2MT, to absorb the excess domestic inventory. These measures have improved realisations marginally; however, high cost of production will continue to strain profitability of sugar mills in the short term.

Weak profitability from the sugar division may also weaken debt protection metrics. CRISIL believes cash accrual will be tightly matched, with sizeable term debt of Rs 38 crore maturing in fiscal 2019. However, improving profitability from the distillery and co-generation segments continues to lend support.

Further, the rating continues to draw support from extensive experience of the promoters in the sugar industry.This is partly offset by susceptibility to cyclicality and regulatory changes in the sugar industry, and modest financial risk profile.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Extensive experience of the promoters in the sugar industry: The management has been engaged in the sugar business for several decades; the first unit was set up in in 1939, with capacity of 500 Tonnes Crushed per Day (TCD). Since then, the company has survived several downturns and has grown its scale to 15,000 TCD. This includes a fully integrated distillery capacity of 75 KLPD and cogeneration capacity of 59.5 MW as of March 2018.

* Integrated nature of operations: CRISIL believes the integrated nature of operations partially offsets volatility in profitability of the sugar division. The non-sugar segment contributed 34% of operating income in fiscal 2018 (excluding inventory loss). The distillery segment may report a higher margin in fiscal 2018-19, backed by healthy sugarcane production and significant fall in price of molasses. In the cogeneration segment, the company has signed power purchase agreements with few distribution companies in Karnataka in January 2018. The per unit realisation rates for power exported will range from Rs 4.0 to Rs 4.3 in fiscal 2018-19, and be eligible for annual price escalations. This will support profitability of the segment, which reported realisations of about Rs 3 per unit, under the short-term access system so far. 

Weaknesses
* Susceptibility to regulatory changes and volatile sugar prices: Given the inherent cyclicality in the sugar industry, domestic players remain vulnerable to volatile sugar prices, which are driven by the production levels. Any change in sugar prices can adversely impact profitability of millers. The government also regulates the domestic demand-supply situation through its policies on sugar and cane prices, trade, and subsidies.

Sharp growth in domestic production in SS 2017-18, led to a downside pressure on sugar prices. Higher sugar production can be attributed to higher yields from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and parts of Karnataka, as normal monsoon was received last year, in all cane-growing areas, except Tamil Nadu. Normal monsoon expected in 2018, may keep sugar output higher than domestic consumption for the second consecutive year in SS 2018-19. Sugar prices started falling from October 2017, and were almost 27% lower on a year-on-year basis by May 2018. Fair and Remunerative Prices (FRP's) rose by 9-10% for SS 2017-18, and are expected to increase further by 2-3% in SS 2018-19. Though sugar prices have started stabilising, and a minimum ex-mill price of Rs 29 per kg has been fixed, CRISIL believes this pricing level would be close to the cost of sugar production for Ugar Sugar in fiscal 2019.

* Modest financial risk profile: Financial risk profile has weakened owing to a drop in profitability, and remains modest as on date. Large debt of Rs 379 crore, against networth of Rs 46 crore as on March 31, 2018, led to a high gearing of 8.3 times, vis-s-vis 3.2 times a year before. Long term borrowings constituted about 13% of the total borrowings as on March 2018. Out of this, the company has repayment obligations of Rs 38 crore in fiscal 2019. CRISIL draws comfort from unutilised bank limit (about Rs 87 crore undrawn as of May 2018), and funding support available from the promoters. With continued uncertainty surrounding improvement in sugar prices over the next 12 months, liquidity may remain constrained.
Outlook: Stable

CRISIL believes Ugar Sugar will continue to benefit from the extensive experience of its promoters, and the management's commitment to provide timely support, in case of exigencies. The outlook may be revised to 'Positive' if growth in profitability and cash accrual, strengthens the capital structure. The outlook maybe revised to 'Negative' in case of a change in the management stance towards timely support, or if increase in working capital debt weakens the credit metrics.

About the Company

Established in 1939, Ugar Sugar is one of India's oldest sugar mills. The company has a fully integrated set-up with crushing capacity of 12,500 TCD, a 44-MW power plant, and 75-klpd distillery in Ugarkhurd, Karnataka. It also has a 2500-TCD capacity and 15.5-MW power plant in Jewargi, Karnataka.

Key Financial Indicators
Particulars Unit 2018 2017
Revenue Rs crore 801.9 761.7
Profit After Tax (PAT) Rs Crore (68.2) 26.0
PAT Margin % NA 3.4%
Adjusted debt/adjusted networth Times 8.3 3.2
Interest coverage Times (0.6) 2.1

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of Instrument Date of Allotment Coupon Rate Maturity Date Issue Size Rating Assigned with Outlook
NA Cash Credit NA NA NA 234.0 CRISIL BB-/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Jun-2020 14.0 CRISIL BB-/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Mar-2019 19.0 CRISIL BB-/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Sept-2019 19.0 CRISIL BB-/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Mar-2019 8.0 CRISIL BB-/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Aug-2019 8.0 CRISIL BB-/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Mar-2019 5.0 CRISIL BB-/Stable
NA Term Loan NA NA Sept-2019 5.0 CRISIL BB-/Stable
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2018 (History) 2017  2016  2015  Start of 2015
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Fixed Deposits  FD    --    --    --    --  11-12-15  Withdrawal/Stable  FB+/Stable 
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  312.00  CRISIL BB-/Stable      30-03-17  CRISIL BB/Stable      11-12-15  CRISIL BB-/Stable  CRISIL BB-/Stable 
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Cash Credit 234 CRISIL BB-/Stable Cash Credit 234 CRISIL BB/Stable
Term Loan 78 CRISIL BB-/Stable Term Loan 78 CRISIL BB/Stable
Total 312 -- Total 312 --
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
Rating Criteria for Sugar Industry

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