Rating Rationale
October 09, 2019 | Mumbai
Welspun Corp Limited
Rating outlook revised to 'Positive'; ratings reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Total Bank Loan Facilities Rated Rs.5825 Crore
Long Term Rating CRISIL AA-/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable' and rating reaffirmed)
Short Term Rating CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
 
Rs.990 Crore Non Convertible Debentures CRISIL AA-/Positive (Outlook revised from 'Stable' and rating reaffirmed)
Rs.500 Crore Commercial Paper CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has revised its outlook on the long term bank facilities and non convertible debentures of Welspun Corp Limited (WCL) to 'Positive' from 'Stable' while reaffirmed the rating at 'CRISIL AA-'. The short term rating and commercial paper has been reaffirmed at 'CRISIL A1+'.
 
The outlook revision reflects CRISIL's belief that Welspun group's business risk profile will strengthen further over the medium term, backed by strong order book and improvement in capacity utilization in all the three regions - India, the US and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) leading to better operating profitability. Revenue growth is expected to be ~15-20% with consolidated operating margin of ~10% in fiscal 2020 (against 7.7% in fiscal 2019). The improvement in operating margins is driven by improving mix of order book, comprising higher profitability yielding projects, revised pricing strategies followed in the projects won by KSA unit and increasing capacity utilization levels at KSA on back of its strong order book. Additionally the group has finalized the sale of its plate and coil mill division (PCMD) that has been operating at significantly sub-optimal capacity utilization levels. Subsequently the return on capital employed (RoCE) that has been depressed till date, is expected to increase sharply.  
 
The financial risk profile remains strong on back of a comfortable capital structure and adequate debt protection metrics. For fiscal 2019, the debt protection measures have been impacted by the PAT loss posted on account of discontinuation of operations and impairment loss at the PCMD, and writing off of investments in bonds IL&FS bonds including its SPVs, and Reliance Communications Ltd. Given healthy cash generation and progressive debt repayments, capital structure is expected to remain healthy with gearing to be around 0.5 time in fiscal 2020. With expected improvement in operating profitability, interest coverage is expected to improve significantly. Liquidity is expected to remain strong, backed by strong cash flows, and management stance maintaining surplus cash and cash equivalents of more than Rs. 500 crores at all points in time.
 
The ratings reflect a strong business risk profile backed by a leadership position in the global steel line-pipe business, geographically diverse capacities, a steady order book, expected sustained improvement in operating margin, and prudent risk-management strategies. The ratings also factor in a strong financial risk profile and ample liquidity marked by large networth, comfortable capital structure, the commitment of the management towards controlling external debt, and a healthy debt coverage ratio, albeit average interest coverage. These strengths are partially offset by susceptibility to any slowdown in end-user industries and to government regulations.

Analytical Approach

For arriving at the ratings, CRISIL has done 100% consolidation of the business and financial risk profiles of WCL and its subsidiaries, Welspun Mauritius Holdings Ltd, Welspun Pipes Inc (WPI), and Welspun Tradings Ltd; and step-down subsidiaries, Welspun Middle East Pipe Company LLC (WMEP), Welspun Middle East Pipe Coating Company LLC (WMEC), Welspun Tubular LLC, and Welspun Global Trade LLC. That's because all these entities, together referred to as the Welspun group, have the same business, brand, and management, and significant financial and operational linkages.

Please refer Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated, which captures the list of entities considered and their analytical treatment of consolidation.

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Strong business risk profile supported by market leadership in the line pipe business: The Welspun Corp group is one of the largest player in the global steel line-pipe business with capacities of 25.55 lakh tonne per annum (tpa) and consistent sales of about 1000 ktpa. It has a track record of over two decades and demonstrated technical capability in supply of high-grade line pipes for critical and large projects in the oil and gas and water and sanitation segments. The group has established relationships with reputed overseas customers, which include Transcanada Pipelines Ltd, Shell, TOTAL, Kinder Morgan, Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Qatar Petroleum, and Kuwait Oil Company. It also supplies line pipes to all major players in the domestic market, such as Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Gas Authority of India Ltd, Reliance Industries Ltd, Gujarat State Petronet Ltd, and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Furthermore, limited competition due to large capital requirement, and necessity to have critical accreditations and customer approvals, bolster the business risk profile. Future performance will be supported by improving domestic demand, and healthy orders of 1564 kilo tonnes as on June 30, 2019 offering significant revenue visibility.

* Geographically diverse capacities and presence: The group has multi-location presence with facilities in India, the US, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which enables it to cater to geographically diverse customers, counter protectionist policies in some global markets, and guard against economic downturns in specific regions. The geographically diversified presence mitigates the concentration risk which is extremely critical in the steel line-pipe segment. Furthermore, the group has the flexibility to manufacture pipes at any of its facilities as all units have necessary certifications and accreditations, which lends support to overall operations.

* Prudent risk management strategies: The group has a prudent risk management policy for different regions. In India, group purchases raw material back-to back and maintain order-backed inventory which mitigate price fluctuation risk of the key input, steel. In US, the group has a pass through agreement and all changes in steel prices are passed on to the customers. In KSA, since the contracts are for longer tenure of 2 years, the group hedge its commodity risk for 6 months through forward contracts. Moreover since the contracts in KSA don't have price escalation clauses, the group has been building the risk premium to cover for steel price fluctuations at the time of bidding for the contracts. Also, 75-80% of domestic sales are backed by letters of credit or bank guarantees, which partially offset counter party risks. 

* Strong financial risk profile and ample liquidity: As on March 31, 2019, the networth was strong at Rs 2,754 crore, the gearing healthy at 0.72 time, and the total outside liabilities to adjusted networth (TOLANW) ratio at 2.38 times. Unencumbered cash and bank balance and liquid investments of Rs 965 crore as on March 31, 2019, provide significant cushion to overall liquidity. Adjusting for such surplus, the net gearing and net TOLANW ratio reduce further to 0.37 time and 2.03 times, respectively. The net debt to EBITDA ratio was also comfortable at 1.30 times as on March 31, 2019. Management has committed to maintaining a net gearing at below 1 time and a net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2 times. The interest coverage ratio is average and has remained average at 3.4 times in fiscal 2019. With term loan repayment, no major debt-funded capital expenditure (capex), and healthy cash accrual, the financial risk profile is expected to improve further over the medium term.

Weaknesses
* Susceptibility to slowdown in end-user industries, and to government policies: The group has historically derived 60-70% of revenue from the oil and gas segment, and the remaining from the water segment. Slowdown in the oil and gas industry because of a significant decline in crude price had impacted operations in the recent past. Moreover, higher revenue from the lesser profitable water segment impacted the operating margin (7.7% in fiscal 2019, against 9.4% in fiscal 2017). Revival of new projects in oil and gas segment in the key markets of India and Middle East is critical for improvement in overall operations. Any major and continued slowdown in end-user industries will weaken demand for line pipes, and impact performance. Furthermore, operations remain exposed to government policies and preferences with respect to factors such as such as local supply and trade duties.

Liquidity: Strong
Welspun group has strong liquidity driven by expected cash accruals of more than Rs. 800 crore per annum in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2021, against repayment obligations of around Rs. 187 crore and Rs. 83 crore, respectively. It also has cash and cash equivalents of Rs. 965 crore as on March 31, 2019. WCL also has access to fund based limits of Rs. 70 crore, which remained unutilized over the 12 months ended March 2019. The group can fund its repayment obligations and capex requirements (if any) through internal accruals. Outstanding commercial paper to the tune of Rs. 175 crore is backed by unutilized bank lines and is expected to be rolled over on maturity. Its bank lines are expected to meet its incremental working capital requirements.
Outlook: Positive

CRISIL believes Welspun group's leadership position in the line-pipe segment, a diversified global presence, and a healthy order book will help maintain revenue growth and profitability over the medium term. A prudent funding mix and commitment towards maintenance of the capital structure and debt coverage will ensure sustenance of the financial risk profile.

Rating sensitivity factors
Upward Factor
* Strengthening of business risk profile, driven by sustained revenue growth and consolidated operating profitability at over 10%
* Improvement in RoCE to above 18% and interest coverage of 6 times
* Better capital structure with reduction in TOLANW (net-off cash) to 1.5 times

Downward Factor
* Decline in profitability below 7% because of increase in raw material prices, slower ramp-up in Saudi Arabia operations, or lower realisations
* Weakening of financial risk profile because of increase in working capital requirement or unanticipated debt funded acquisition or capex.

About the Group

Incorporated in 1995, WCL is the flagship company of the Welspun group promoted by Mr B K Goenka. It manufactures line pipes at its plants in India (Dahej and Anjar in Gujarat, Bhopal in Madhya Pradesh and Mandya in Karnataka), the US (Little Rock, Arkansas), and KSA (Dammam). Products include longitudinal, spiral, and high-frequency induction-welded pipes. WCL also has coating facilities in the three countries.

The company operates in the US through its 100% subsidiary, WPI; and in KSA through step-down subsidiaries, WMEP and WMEC. It also has a 100% subsidiary, Welspun Tradings Ltd, which acts as a bid arm in the global market.

Operations are managed by a professional team headed by Mr Vipul Mathur, managing director and chief executive officer.

Key Financial Indicators - (Consolidated)
Particulars Unit 2019 2018
Revenue Rs. Cr. 10304 8033
Profit After Tax (PAT) Rs. Cr. -103 74
PAT Margins % -1.0 0.9%
Adjusted Debt/Adjusted Networth Times 0.72 0.60
Interest coverage Times 3.4 3.6

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of instrument Date of allotment Coupon rate (%) Maturity date Issue size
(Rs.Cr)
Rating assigned
with outlook
1NE191807071 Non- Convertible Debentures 03-Aug-2010 9.55% 02-Aug-2025 200 CRISIL AA-/Positive
INE191007139 Non- Convertible Debentures 09-Nov-2012 11% 08-Nov-2022 90 CRISIL AA-/Positive
INE191807147 Non- Convertible Debentures 01-Feb-2018 8.9% 01-Feb-2024 250 CRISIL AA-/Positive
NA Non- Convertible Debentures* NA NA NA 450 CRISIL AA-/Positive
NA Commercial Paper NA NA 7-365 Days 500 CRISIL A1+
NA Letter of Credit NA NA NA 4084 CRISIL A1+
NA Bank Guarantee NA NA NA 1278 CRISIL A1+
NA Proposed Letter of Credit & Bank Guarantee NA NA NA 356 CRISIL A1+
NA Cash Credit NA NA NA 70.0 CRISIL AA-/Positive
NA External Commercial Borrowings NA NA 31-Oct-2019 37.0 CRISIL AA-/Positive
*Yet to be issued
 
Annexure - List of Entities Consolidated
Names of Entities Consolidated Extent of Consolidation Rationale for Consolidation
Welspun Corp Limited Full Parent Company
Welspun Mauritius Holdings Ltd Subsidiary Company
Welspun Pipes Inc (WPI) Subsidiary Company
Welspun Tradings Ltd Subsidiary Company
Welspun Middle East Pipe Company LLC (WMEP) Step-Down Subsidiary Company
Welspun Middle East Pipe Coating Company LLC (WMEC) Step-Down Subsidiary Company
Welspun Tubular LLC Step-Down Subsidiary Company
Welspun Global Trade LLC Step-Down Subsidiary Company
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2019 (History) 2018  2017  2016  Start of 2016
Instrument Type Outstanding Amount Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Commercial Paper  ST  500.00  CRISIL A1+  12-04-19  CRISIL A1+  27-07-18  CRISIL A1+  16-08-17  CRISIL A1+    --  -- 
Non Convertible Debentures  LT  990.00
09-10-19 
CRISIL AA-/Positive  12-04-19  CRISIL AA-/Stable  27-07-18  CRISIL AA-/Stable  16-08-17  CRISIL AA-/Stable    --  -- 
Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  107.00  CRISIL AA-/Positive  12-04-19  CRISIL AA-/Stable  27-07-18  CRISIL AA-/Stable  16-08-17  CRISIL AA-/Stable    --  -- 
Non Fund-based Bank Facilities  LT/ST  5718.00  CRISIL A1+  12-04-19  CRISIL A1+  27-07-18  CRISIL A1+  16-08-17  CRISIL A1+    --  -- 
All amounts are in Rs.Cr.
Annexure - Details of various bank facilities
Current facilities Previous facilities
Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating Facility Amount (Rs.Crore) Rating
Bank Guarantee 1278 CRISIL A1+ Bank Guarantee 1133 CRISIL A1+
Cash Credit 70 CRISIL AA-/Positive Cash Credit 70 CRISIL AA-/Stable
External Commercial Borrowings 37 CRISIL AA-/Positive External Commercial Borrowings 172.2 CRISIL AA-/Stable
Letter of Credit 4084 CRISIL A1+ Letter of Credit 3794 CRISIL A1+
Proposed Letter of Credit & Bank Guarantee 356 CRISIL A1+ Proposed Non Fund based limits 655.8 CRISIL A1+
Total 5825 -- Total 5825 --
Links to related criteria
CRISILs Approach to Financial Ratios
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings - process, scale and default recognition
Rating criteria for manufaturing and service sector companies
CRISILs Bank Loan Ratings
CRISILs Criteria for Consolidation
CRISILs Criteria for rating short term debt
The Rating Process
Understanding CRISILs Ratings and Rating Scales

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