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April 27, 2021

Competition dials up

The top two players are neck and neck, with neither ready to bite the bullet on tariffs

4G subscriber base seen rising to ~820 million this fiscal despite the second Covid-19 wave

 

India’s wireless-telecom subscriber base rebounded to ~1.159 billion in January 2021 – similar to pre-pandemic levels – after dialling down to ~1.140 billion in June 2020 following a massive churn during the lockdown, which saw reverse migration causing a labour crisis.

 

The pandemic also slowed 4G subscriber additions to ~12 million in the June 2020 quarter, with smartphone shipments probing new lows. There was recovery in the quarters that followed, but growth in 4G subscriber additions remain below the pre-pandemic rate. However, the March 2021 quarter would have been better because India’s 4G subscriber base is expected to have risen to 710-720 million in fiscal 2021.

 

But with the onset of the second wave of the pandemic and the resultant restrictions, there is once again reverse migration of labour. That could mean another quarter of subscriber churn. Also, given the restrictions in major cities, smartphone sales are likely to be impacted as well, which would slow 4G subscriber additions in the current quarter. The pace of additions should pick-up gradually over the remainder of this fiscal as competitive intensity in the wireless-telecom market increases.

 

In this scenario, our bull case is 4G subscribers rising to ~820 million by the end of this fiscal, assuming restrictions last only for the current quarter. In the bear case, where lockdowns extend through the second quarter, we see that number reaching ~800-810 million.