Why Budget 2023 should plan now for when the global tide will turn
India has set a target of $400 billion for merchandise exports for the current fiscal and an ambitious $1 trillion by fiscal 20301. The short-term target is in sight, given the swift recovery in trade in recent months. But the harder part will be to keep the momentum going once global growth moderates, as will be the case past 2022, when massive stimulus packages wind down.
Moreover, with the pandemic easing, services demand is expected to return, taking away from the one-off impetus to goods trade caused by the pandemic itself.
Budget 2023 would do well to keep these factors in mind and do what it takes to maintain the current momentum in trade to translate targets into reality.
