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November 24, 2022

Climate concerns cloud crops
CRISIL Insight

Multiplying extreme events magnify the vulnerabilities of agriculture in India

Executive summary
 

  • This year has been a wake-up call for India, as well as for others in the sub-continent and other parts of the world hit by intense heatwaves, erratic rains, floods, droughts, storms and cyclones causing wide-spread damage to life and property. In India, heatwaves pre-monsoon, patchy progress of rainfall during the monsoon, and excess rainfall post-monsoon have impacted several agricultural crops and swayed food inflation
  • It is widely researched now that India is one of the countries in Asia most vulnerable to the physical risks of climate change. An analysis by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates agriculture in India will come under greater pressure from increased frequency of heatwaves, more rainfall extremes (more frequent dry spells and extreme rainfall), water scarcity, and soil degradation
  • India’s problem is also unique, given its high reliance on agriculture for employment and output, repeated struggles with controlling food price inflation, high reliance on fossil fuel for power, high emission intensity of industrial production, and limited fiscal space to react and/or respond to climate change
  • Climate change is primarily a fiscal challenge for the governments. At the recently concluded COP27 climate summit, India submitted its long-term low-carbon development strategy that aims at expanding renewables use, strengthening energy efficiency measures, rationalising fossil-fuel resource utilisation, and ensuring optimum energy mix while following on a development-focused transition. The damage from climate shocks, though, is visible already. Therefore, in the short term, the Indian government’s climate action response should also more sharply focus on mitigating risks to the agriculture sector. While the government cannot control the physical climate risks to the sector, it can speed up other efficiency improvements, such as reducing crop wastage, improving irrigation, setting up warehousing facilities, and promoting research, development and introduction of weather-resilient, high yielding varieties of crops. Promoting investment in food processing and cold storage to reduce food wastage is another option that can help reduce losses