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February 14, 2023

CRISIL Economy First Cut: Inflation darts up, industrial activity moderates

Macroeconomics | First cut

Food, core push inflation above the RBI target band again

 

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation jumped sharply in January to 6.52% on-year (from 5.72% in December). The acceleration was driven largely by a rise in food (cereals, protein-based items) and core (personal care and effects) inflation. Both momentum (from on-month price increases) and some low-base effect contributed to pulling up the headline inflation, overwhelming the effect of deflation in vegetables. In fact, excluding vegetables, CPI inflationwould have jumped to 7.7% (compared to 7.2% in December).

Highlights of inflation trends in January
 

  • CPI inflation rose to 6.52% from 5.72% in December 2022, and 6% print of January 2022
  • Food and beverage inflation jumped the most: to 6.2% from 4.6% previous month
  • Fuel1 inflation moderated slightly to 10.8% from a downwardly revised 10.9% of December
  • Core CPI2 inflation remained sticky at 6.2%, slightly higher than the 6.1% of December

1 Refers to CPI fuel and light
2 CPI excluding food and beverages, and fuel and light