After recovering in July, the southwest (SW) monsoon witnessed its driest spell in 123 years in August, taking the cumulative deficiency for the season to 10%. By September 4, cumulative deficiency rose to 11%.
Distribution has been skewed. Rainfall was 3% surplus in northwest India, where the irrigation cover is good. However, it was below the long period average (LPA) by17% in south and east and by 10% in northeastern and central India, where irrigation cover is lower
CRISIL’s deficient rainfall impact parameter (DRIP) highlights Jharkhand, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Bihar and West Bengal as vulnerable states. It also highlights pulses, some coarse cereals, rice and oilseeds as vulnerable crops facing some duress due to deficient rains and a low irrigation cover
The key concern is weak rains could hurt agriculture output at a time when recovery in the rural economy is weak. Any impact on crop output could increase upside pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI)- based food infla
The key hope now, as indicated by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), is that a catch-up in September will partially offset the impact of scanty rains so far
