Article of the month

In high spirits​: The Alcoholic Beverages Sector

 

Key messages

 

Revenue of alcoholic beverage players to grow at a steady 10-12% this fiscal, driven by premiumisation

 

  • The Indian alcoholic beverages segment is expected to grow 10-12% this fiscal; the segment has been growing at compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% for the past 3 years ended 2025​
  • Indian-made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) sales dominate, accounting for ~80% of the industry size, followed by beer and wine

 

Steady volume growth to continue this fiscal​

 

  • Consumption to grow at 4-6% over the next two fiscals, supported by rising incomes and a growing legal drinking age population
  • ​Innovation and rising demand for low-alcohol drinks to drive beer volume growth by 6-7%

 

Operating margin to remain stable

 

  • The operating margin is expected to be stable at 13-14% over the medium term with a marginal increase in raw material prices​
  • Wheat and barley prices are expected to go up, reducing the operating margin of brewers by 30 bps to 10%, while margin of IMFL players to remain at similar levels of 14%​

 

Credit outlook across segments to remain stable

 

  • Balance sheets to remain healthy despite debt-funded capital expenditure (capex) plan due to lower debt reliance in past
  • ​Credit profiles of players to remain stable​

 

Key monitorables

 

  • Regulatory and policy changes​
  • Raw material prices and availability​