Rating Rationale
January 25, 2018 | Mumbai
CRISIL revises outlook on public sector banks to 'Stable' from 'Negative' 
Recapitalisation, peaking of asset quality issues, revival in credit growth to improve outlook 
 
CRISIL has revised its outlook on the long-term debt instruments (excluding Basel III Tier I) of 18 public sector banks (PSB) to 'Stable from 'Negative', while reaffirming their ratings.
 
The revision in outlook is primarily driven by government's PSB recapitalisation programme for this fiscal, which will improve the financial risk profile of these banks and also help them meet Basel III regulatory capital norms, and provide cushion against expected rise in provisioning for non-performing assets (NPAs).
 
The ratings on Basel III Tier I bonds of nine PSBs have also been reaffirmed, and the outlook has been retained as 'Negative'. CRISIL is evaluating the flexibility with banks to set off any accumulated losses with the bank's balance in share premium account and its implication on the availability of eligible reserves to service AT1 coupon payments. We will revisit our ratings on AT1 instruments once there is clarity.
 
On October 24, 2017 after the government announced its Rs 2.11 lakh crore recapitalisation plan, CRISIL had said that it was credit positive for public sector banks and when details of the capital infusion for individual PSBs are announced, it will consider those and take appropriate rating action.
 
On Wednesday, the government announced details of bank-wise infusion of ~Rs 88,000 crore capital this fiscal.
 
CRISIL has assessed the impact of this and believes with expected capital infusion from government, PSBs are now adequately placed to meet Basel III capital norms and are also better prepared to absorb the hit from provisioning on stressed assets and also on account of migration to Ind AS (Indian Accounting Standards).
 
The government has also outlined its banking reforms agenda. The strengthening of prudent lending practices through responsible banking - that is, banking based on core strengths, sharper pre- and post-disbursal monitoring for large exposures, and improving NPA resolution mechanisms (including separate asset management verticals), will structurally improve credit culture at PSBs.
 
Says Krishnan Sitaraman, Senior Director, CRISIL Ratings, 'The recapitalisation plan while emphasising government's support, also persuades public sector banks to up the ante on responsible banking. The upshot of more accountability, governance and efficiencies is a structurally stronger banking system and improved investor sentiment towards them'.
 
Asset quality issues are peaking for banks with incremental slippages to NPAs expected to taper in fiscal 2018 and 2019 as credit health of corporate borrowers' are improving. However, the resolution of large corporate stressed accounts under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code and the potential haircuts thereof are expected to increase the provisioning burden of PSBs and impact their earnings profile and capital position in the near term.
 
CRISIL will continue to monitor the performance of PSBs - their asset quality and profitability performance, and the capital support from the government in future and will appropriately factor in the same in the ratings of these banks.
 
Annexure 1 : List of rating actions on PSBs

Bank Tier II Bonds (Under Basel II & Basel III)/ Infrastructure Bonds Hybrid Instruments  (Under Basel II) Fixed Deposits Tier I Bonds (Under Basel III) Certificate of Deposits
Allahabad Bank CRISIL AA-/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)      
Andhra Bank CRISIL AA+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL AA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL AA-/Negative (Reaffirmed)  
Bank of Baroda CRISIL AAA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL AAA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL AA+/Negative (Reaffirmed)  
Bank of India CRISIL AA+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL AA+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL A+/Negative (Reaffirmed) CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
Bank of Maharashtra CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL BBB+/Negative (Reaffirmed) CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
Canara Bank CRISIL AAA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL AAA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL AA/Negative (Reaffirmed) CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
Central Bank of India CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)      
Corporation Bank CRISIL AA-/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) FAA+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A-/Negative (Reaffirmed)  
Dena Bank CRISIL AA-/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL A-/Negative (Reaffirmed) CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
IDBI Bank Ltd. CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) FAA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL BBB+/Negative (Reaffirmed) CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
Indian Overseas Bank CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A-/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) FAA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
Oriental Bank of Commerce     FAA+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
Punjab & Sind Bank CRISIL AA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)        
Punjab National Bank CRISIL AAA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL AAA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL AA/Negative (Reaffirmed)  
Syndicate Bank CRISIL AA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL AA/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)      
UCO Bank CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)     CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)
Union Bank of India CRISIL AA+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL AA+/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)      
United Bank of India CRISIL AA-/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative) CRISIL A/Stable (Outlook revised from Negative)   CRISIL BBB+/Negative (Reaffirmed) CRISIL A1+ (Reaffirmed)

Corporation Bank
Rating outlook revised to 'Stable' ; ratings reaffirmed
 
Rating Action
Lower Tier-II Bonds (Under Basel II) Aggregating Rs.1200 Crore  CRISIL AA-/Stable (Outlook revised from 'Negative'; Rating reaffirmed)
Tier-I Perpetual Bonds (Under Basel II) Aggregating Rs.437.5 Crore CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from 'Negative'; Rating reaffirmed)
Upper Tier-II Bonds (Under Basel II) Aggregating Rs.1400 Crore CRISIL A+/Stable (Outlook revised from 'Negative'; Rating reaffirmed)
Fixed Deposit Programme FAA+/Stable (Outlook revised from 'Negative'; Rating reaffirmed)
Rs.1000 Crore Tier-I Bonds (Under Basel III) CRISIL A-/Negative (Reaffirmed)
1 crore = 10 million
Refer to annexure for Details of Instruments & Bank Facilities
Detailed Rationale

CRISIL has revised its outlook on the Lower Tier II Bonds (under Basel II), Tier-I Perpetual Bonds (under Basel II), Upper Tier II Bonds (under Basel II) and on Fixed Deposit Programme of Corporation Bank to 'Stable' from 'Negative', while reaffirming the ratings at 'CRISIL AA-/CRISIL A+/FAA+'. The rating on the Tier I bonds (under Basel III) has been reaffirmed at 'CRISIL A-/Negative'.
 
The revision in the outlook on the Lower Tier II Bonds (under Basel II), Tier-I Perpetual Bonds (under Basel II), Upper Tier II Bonds (under Basel II) and on Fixed Deposit Programme is primarily driven by government's recapitalisation plans for public sector banks including Corporation Bank in the current fiscal. CRISIL believes that this will improve the financial risk profile of the bank, help in meeting Basel III regulatory capital norms, and provide a cushion against expected rise in provisioning for non-performing assets (NPAs). Additionally, CRISIL believes that asset quality issues are peaking with incremental slippages to NPAs expected to taper in fiscal 2018 and 2019. This coupled with likely revival of credit growth in medium term will support Corporation Bank's performance.
 
The ratings continue to factor in the expectation of strong support from majority owner, Government of India and adequate capitalisation. The ratings, however, continue to factor the stress on Corporation Bank's asset quality, especially in the corporate portfolio and therefore the increase in provisions would continue to impact profitability over medium term. The bank's gross NPA ratio was high at 15.28% as on September 30, 2017 (11.7% as on March 31, 2017 and 10.81% as on September 30, 2016). Also the earnings profile remains weak with the bank reporting annualised return on assets (RoA) of -0.8% for the half year ending September 30, 2017 (0.23% as on March 31, 2017 and 0.2% for half year ending September 30, 2016). However the proposed capital infusion of Rs 2,187 crore in current fiscal under the PSB recapitalization plan will help absorb increase in provisioning burden and meet regulatory requirements.

Analytical Approach

The ratings on Corporation Bank's debt instruments continue to factor in the strong support expected from its majority owner, the Government of India (GoI)

Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths
* Strong expectation of support from the GoI:
The rating continues to factor in an expectation of strong government support, both on an ongoing basis and in the event of distress. This is because GoI is both the majority shareholder in public sector banks (PSBs) and the guardian of India's financial system. The stability of the banking sector is of prime importance to GoI, given the criticality of the sector to the economy, the strong public perception of sovereign backing for PSBs, and the severe implications of any PSB failure in terms of political fallout, systemic stability, and investor confidence in public sector institutions. CRISIL believes that the majority ownership creates a moral obligation on GoI to support the PSBs, including Corporation Bank. As part of the 'Indradhanush' framework, government has pledged to infuse at least Rs 70,000 crore in PSBs during fiscals 2015-19, of which Rs 25,000 crore each was infused in fiscals 2016 and 2017. Further, in October 2017, the government had outlined recapitalisation package of Rs 2.11 lakh crores over fiscals 2018 and 2019, out of which PSBs will receive Rs 88,139 crore from the government in fiscal 2018. Corporation Bank was allocated has been allocated Rs 2,187 crore out of this for the current fiscal.
 
* Adequate capitalisation
Corporation Bank has adequate capitalisation, driven by continued GoI support. Tier-I and overall capital adequacy ratios stood at 7.94% and 10.23% as on September 30, 2017 (8.90% and 11.32% respectively as on March 31, 2017 and 8.11% and 10.64% respectively as on September 30, 2016).  The GoI's shareholding at 70.76% as on September 30, 2017 provides flexibility to the bank to raise equity by diluting GoI's stake over the medium term.  However, net-worth coverage for net NPAs declined to 0.9 times as on as on September 30, 2017.
 
Weakness
* Weak asset quality
Corporation Bank's asset quality has deteriorated significantly over the past few quarters and is expected to remain under pressure in the near term. End September 2017, Corporation Bank's GNPA ratio stood at 15.28%, slightly improved from 15.49% reported as on June 30, 2017 but deteriorated from 11.7% as on March 31, 2017. The gross NPA increase during fiscal 2018 primarily due to slippages in large corporate exposures, a part of which was due to recognition of a few accounts where there was a divergence between the banks' accounts and the Reserve Bank of India's findings. In half year of fiscal 2018, the slippage ratio (annualized and as a proportion of opening net advances) stood at 8.84% compared to 5.53% in fiscal 2017 and 7.3% in fiscal 2016. CRISIL believes Corporation Bank will continue to face asset quality challenges over the next few quarters, because of the continued weak credit risk profile of highly leveraged corporates and limited recovery from NPAs.
 
* Modest earnings profile
Corporation Bank's profitability trends continue to be modest underpinned by low net interest margins due to the weaker resource profile compared to peers. The CRISIL adjusted annualized net interest margin (NIM on average total assets) for six months ending September 30, 2017 stood at 1.87% (1.84% as on March 31, 2017). The reported NIM (on average interest earning assets) stood at 2.15% end September 2017 (2.12% end fiscal 2017).  NIM benefited from the lower cost of deposits in the current year. Owing to loan book contraction, the net interest income remained flat Y-o-Y. However the overall profitability remained constrained due to more than doubling of provision costs, owing to which the bank incurred a loss of Rs 975 crore for half year ending September 30, 2017 compared to profit of Rs 242 crore reported for the corresponding period last year. Given the impending asset quality pressures, the profitability is expected to remain under pressure.
 
* Weak resource profile
Corporation Bank's resource profile remains weak. While the bank's current and savings accounts deposits (CASA) were higher at 26.14% as on September 30, 2017 (26.47% as on March 31, 2017 and 20.49% as on September 30, 2016), it still remains among the lowest in the industry. This has resulted in higher CRISIL adjusted average annualized cost of deposit (on average total deposits) of around 6.4% for the half year ending September 30, 2017. The reported cost of deposits (on weekly average deposits) stood at 5.93% end September 2017.
 
Outlook: Stable on Lower Tier II Bonds (under Basel II), Tier-I Perpetual Bonds (under Basel II), Upper Tier II Bonds (under Basel II) and on Fixed Deposit Programme
CRISIL believes that Corporation Bank will continue to benefit from strong support from GoI, especially given the recent recapitalisation announcement. The bank's asset quality, resource profile and earnings profile are however, expected to remain modest over the medium term.
 
Upside scenario
Substantial and sustained improvement in asset quality and earnings profile
 
Downside Scenario
Further significant deterioration in its asset quality or higher than expected provisioning expenses impacting earnings profile
 
Outlook: Negative on the Tier-I Bonds (under Basel III)
CRISIL believes that the expected stress in Corporation Bank's asset quality over the medium term could impact the bank's eligible reserves position. CRISIL has evaluated the adequacy of Corporation Bank's eligible reserves to service coupon after adjusting for any medium-term impact of profitability on the bank's reserves position in a stress scenario. The current rating factors in the expectation of continued pressure on eligible reserves given the relatively low provision coverage and consequent increased provisioning requirement over the next few quarters
 
Downside Scenario
The rating may be downgraded in case of significant deterioration in eligible reserves position. The rating may also be downgraded if there is further significant deterioration in its asset quality or earnings profile. 
 
Upside Scenario
CRISIL is evaluating the flexibility with banks to set off any accumulated losses with the bank's balance in share premium account. Clarity on the same is likely to have positive implication on the availability of eligible reserves to service Basel III Tier-I coupon payments and thereby the rating on the instruments.
About the Company

Corporation Bank was established in 1906 in Udupi (Karnataka) by a group of merchants, educationists, lawyers and insurance agents. GoI owns 70.76% of the bank's equity share capital. The bank had 2521 branches and two representative offices, one each in Dubai and Hong Kong as at end September 2017.
 
For fiscal 2017 Corporation Bank earned net profit of Rs 561.2 crore on total income (net of interest expenses) of Rs 7,541 crore against loss of Rs 506.48 crore on total income (net of interest expenses) of Rs 5,975 crore for fiscal 2016.
 
For half year ending September 30, 2017, the bank reported net loss of Rs 975 crore on total income (net of interest expenses) of Rs 3,684 crore as against net profit of Rs 242 crore on total income (net of interest expenses) of Rs 3,599 crore reported for the corresponding period last year.

Key Financial Indicators
As on / for the period ended March 31   2017 2016
Total Assets Rs crore 247,891 234,864
Total income (net of interest expenses) Rs crore 7,541 5,975
Profit after tax Rs crore 561.2 (506.5)
Gross NPA % 11.7 9.9
Overall capital adequacy ratio % 11.3 10.8
Return on assets % 0.2 (0.2)
 
As on / for  the half year ended September 30   2017 2016
Total Assets Rs crore 239797 239848
Total income (net of interest expenses) Rs crore 3684 3599
Profit after tax Rs crore -975 242
Gross NPA % 15.28 10.81
Overall capital adequacy ratio % 10.23 10.64
Return on assets % -0.8 0.20

Any other information: Not applicable

Note on complexity levels of the rated instrument:
CRISIL complexity levels are assigned to various types of financial instruments. The CRISIL complexity levels are available on www.crisil.com/complexity-levels. Users are advised to refer to the CRISIL complexity levels for instruments that they consider for investment. Users may also call the Customer Service Helpdesk with queries on specific instruments.
Note on Tier-II Instruments (Under Basel III)
The distinguishing feature of Tier-II capital instruments under Basel II is the existence of the point of non-viability (PONV) trigger, the occurrence of which may result in loss of principal to the investors and hence, to default on the instrument by the issuer.  According to the Basel III guidelines, the PONV trigger will be determined by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). CRISIL believes that the PONV trigger is a remote possibility in the Indian context, given the robust regulatory and supervisory framework and the systemic importance of the banking sector. The inherent risk associated with the PONV feature is adequately factored into the rating on the instrument.
 
Note on Hybrid Instruments (Under Basel II)
Given that hybrid capital instruments (Tier-I perpetual bonds and Upper Tier-II bonds; under Basel II) have characteristics that set them apart from Lower Tier-II bonds (under Basel II), the ratings on the two instruments may not necessarily be identical. The factors that could trigger a default event for hybrid instruments include: the bank breaching the regulatory minimum capital requirement, or the regulator's denial of permission to the bank to make payments of interest and principal if the bank reports losses. Hence, the transition from one rating category to another may be significantly sharper for these instruments than in the case of Lower Tier-II bonds; this is because debt servicing on hybrid instruments is far more sensitive to the bank's overall capital adequacy levels and profitability.
 
Note on non-equity Tier-I capital instruments (Under Basel III)
The distinguishing features of non-equity Tier-I capital instruments (under Basel III) are the existence of coupon discretion at all times, high capital thresholds for likely coupon non-payment, and principal write-down (on breach of a pre-specified trigger). These features increase the risk attributes of non-equity Tier-I instruments, over those of Tier-II instruments under Basel III, and capital instruments under Basel II. To factor in these risks, CRISIL notches down the rating on these instruments from the bank's corporate credit rating. The rating on the Tier-I Bonds (under Basel III) has, therefore, been lowered by three notches from Corporation Bank's corporate credit rating, to 'CRISIL A-/Negative' in line with CRISIL's criteria (refer to 'CRISIL's rating criteria for Basel III-compliant instruments of banks').
 
The factors that could trigger a default event for non-equity Tier-I capital instruments (under Basel III) resulting in non-payment of coupon include: i) the bank exercising coupon discretion; ii) inadequacy of eligible reserves to honour coupon payment if the bank reports losses or low profits; or iii) the bank breaching the minimum regulatory Common Equity Tier-1  ratio. Moreover, given the additional risk attributes, the rating transition for non-equity Tier-I capital instruments (under Basel III) can potentially be higher than that for Tier-II instruments.

 
Annexure - Details of Instrument(s)
ISIN Name of Instrument Date of
Allotment
Coupon
Rate (%)
Maturity Date Issue Size
(Rs Cr)
Rating Outstanding 
with Outlook
INE112A09026 LT II bonds under Basel II 19-Mar-08 9.3 19-Mar-18 200 CRISIL AA-/Stable
INE112A09034 LT II bonds under Basel II 27-Mar-08 9.4 27-Mar-18 300 CRISIL AA-/Stable
INE112A09042 LT II bonds under Basel II 3-Dec-08 10.8 3-Dec-18 200 CRISIL AA-/Stable
INE112A09083 LT II bonds under Basel II 31-Mar-09 8.85 31-May-19 500 CRISIL AA-/Stable
INE112A09067 Tier-I Perpetual Bonds (under Basel II) 19-Jan-09 9 Perpetual 237.5 CRISIL A+/Stable
INE112A09141 Tier-I Perpetual Bonds (under Basel II) 11-Aug-09 9.05 Perpetual 100 CRISIL A+/Stable
INE112A09158 Tier-I Perpetual Bonds (under Basel II) 16-Aug-09 9.1 Perpetual 100 CRISIL A+/Stable
INE112A09059 Upper Tier-II Bonds (under Basel II) 12-Dec-08 10.1 12-Dec-23 300 CRISIL A+/Stable
INE112A09125 Upper Tier-II Bonds (under Basel II) 10-Aug-09 8.45 10-Aug-24 250 CRISIL A+/Stable
INE112A09133 Upper Tier-II Bonds (under Basel II) 11-Aug-09 8.45 11-Aug-24 300 CRISIL A+/Stable
INE112A09166 Upper Tier-II Bonds (under Basel II) 29-Apr-10 8.75 29-Apr-25 550 CRISIL A+/Stable
INE112A08010 Tier-I Bonds(under Basel III) 9-Feb-15 9.51 Perpetual 500 CRISIL A-/Negative
INE112A08028 Tier-I Bonds (under Basel III) 24-Mar-17 10.28 Perpetual 500 CRISIL A-/Negative
NA Fixed Deposit Programme NA NA NA 0 FAA+/Stable
Annexure - Rating History for last 3 Years
  Current 2018 (History) 2017  2016  2015  Start of 2015
Instrument Type Quantum Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Date Rating Rating
Certificate of Deposits  ST    --    --  04-04-17  Withdrawal    No Rating Change    No Rating Change  CRISIL A1+ 
Fixed Deposits  FD  FAA+/Stable    No Rating Change  31-08-17  FAA+/Negative  10-03-16  FAAA/Negative    No Rating Change  FAAA/Stable 
Lower Tier-II Bonds (under Basel II)  LT  1200  CRISIL AA-/Stable    No Rating Change  31-08-17  CRISIL AA-/Negative  10-03-16  CRISIL AA/Negative    No Rating Change  CRISIL AA+/Stable 
Perpetual Tier-I Bonds (under Basel II)  LT  437.5  CRISIL A+/Stable    No Rating Change  31-08-17  CRISIL A+/Negative  10-03-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative    No Rating Change  CRISIL AA/Stable 
Tier I Bonds (Under Basel III)  LT  1000  CRISIL A-/Negative    No Rating Change  31-08-17  CRISIL A-/Negative  10-03-16  CRISIL A/Negative    No Rating Change  CRISIL AA-/Stable 
            08-06-17  CRISIL A/Stable           
Tier II Bonds (Under Basel III)  LT    --    --  08-06-17  Withdrawal  10-03-16  CRISIL AA/Negative  06-02-15  CRISIL AA+/Stable  -- 
Upper Tier-II Bonds (under Basel II)  LT  1400  CRISIL A+/Stable    No Rating Change  31-08-17  CRISIL A+/Negative  10-03-16  CRISIL AA-/Negative    No Rating Change  CRISIL AA/Stable 
Table reflects instances where rating is changed or freshly assigned. 'No Rating Change' implies that there was no rating change under the release.
Links to related criteria
Rating Criteria for Banks and Financial Institutions
CRISILs Criteria for rating short term debt
Criteria for Notching up Stand Alone Ratings of Entities Based on Government Support
Rating Criteria for Hybrid Capital Instruments Issued by Banks Under Basel II Guidelines
Rating criteria for Basel III - compliant non-equity capital instruments

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